# Predictions for September KU payouts



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Up or down?


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## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

Are we posting numbers and the one who gets closest gets a prize? I'll say $1.36.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Yes. It's the "Guess The September Payout Challenge". Your reward is the glory of being right. Which is, of course, priceless.


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

I'd like to hear Hugh Howey's guess, since he was almost dead-on last month. And I hope Kathryn is wrong. $1.36 would be...ouch. My books above $1.99 would be saying adios to Select.

P.S. My estimate is $1.50.


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## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

I want to be more of an optimist, so I will say $1.37


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Hmm, "The Price is Right," techniques. Well played.

I remember Hugh saying something like $1.90 for September, but I can't find where he said it.


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## ketosis (Apr 19, 2013)

I'll say $1.60.


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

My guess is that each borrow will be worth 0.0166666667% of a pony.


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## vkloss (Sep 22, 2014)

When do we find out?


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## Keith Soares (Jan 9, 2014)

Dolphin said:


> My guess is that each borrow will be worth 0.0166666667% of a pony.


Yay - a pony (portion)!


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## Chrisbwritin (Jan 28, 2014)

$1.72.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Dolphin said:


> My guess is that each borrow will be worth 0.0166666667% of a pony.


I LOL'd all over my keyboard.


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## Onedayatatime (Oct 14, 2012)

I guess $1.28


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## o.gasim (Oct 5, 2014)

When do you typically find out the KU payout for a month, and where does it show?


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## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

Olivia, it's on the payment reports that come out usually around the 15th.


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## Navigator (Jul 9, 2014)

I'm thinking around $1.20


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## o.gasim (Oct 5, 2014)

kathrynoh said:


> Olivia, it's on the payment reports that come out usually around the 15th.


Thank you!

Guess it helps if I ever had gotten one


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

$1.20 on its way down to a permanent $1. And I am being very optimistic.


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## m.a. petterson (Sep 11, 2013)

I have to wonder that if the number isn't $2.00 or more whether a growing number of full-length writers will re-evaluate their exclusivity with Kindle and explore wider platforms.


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## Navigator (Jul 9, 2014)

We find out Wednesday, yes?


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

I'm having trouble doing all of the math to convert these guesses into numbers that make sense to me.

Which is to say, pony portions.


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## ruecole (Jun 13, 2012)

$1.91. (I'm optimistic!)

Rue


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## Jill James (May 8, 2011)

$2.10 Hoping for a big surprise.


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## Evie Love (Jan 5, 2014)

$142,857/borrow, so I can make a million dollars in a month from self publishing, obviously.

Failing that, I guess I'd settle for $1.82 and a best wishes e-card. And I'll take my pony portion in rupees.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

I'm really hoping it settles in at around $1.50. As long as it's something we can depend on, that would be great.


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> I'm really hoping it settles in at around $1.50. As long as it's something we can depend on, that would be great.


Agreed. I doubt they'll go lower than last month while still trying to build their offerings, but I could be wrong. The $1.54 last month was lower than I'd expected, but more than I had estimated.

And I want my share of the pony.


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## Capella (Jan 16, 2014)

Um...I think it will depend how they address that glitch where all (or all of the ones in a couple threads discussing it) of the books uploaded or changed one day got enrolled in select when they were not supposed to be.  I wonder how much that affected things and how they deal with it. I personally had 8 borrows before they fixed it and it seemed really wide-spread at least in threads here, so that could potentially affect the borrow payout. I know Amazon can always add money in...but still...


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Kit Tunstall said:


> And I want my share of the pony.


I just hope I get some of the good bits. Lord knows I won't get 6000 borrows and wind up with a whole one.


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## Sophrosyne (Mar 27, 2011)

I think it's going to go up from August. So, August averaged what, $1.89? I'm going to say between $1.92 and $2.05 for Sept.

I think, to keep people in Select, the borrows will need to be around $2.00 - $2.25. 

The highest I've ever seen borrows were... Didn't they hit a high of $2.60 back in the early days of KLL?


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

Sophrosyne said:


> I think it's going to go up from August. So, August averaged what, $1.89? I'm going to say between $1.92 and $2.05 for Sept.
> 
> I think, to keep people in Select, the borrows will need to be around $2.00 - $2.25.
> 
> The highest I've ever seen borrows were... Didn't they hit a high of $2.60 back in the early days of KLL?


July was $1.80 (ish), and August was $1.54. Someone posted the history of KOLL payouts here in August, but I don't remember which author it was. I've only been in Select for a few months, so I don't know the older figures. It was averaging around $2.20 before KU.


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## Mark E. Cooper (May 29, 2011)

I'll donate the prize (I think it's awesome of course) ... An audio book by Mark E. Cooper       Oh, it will be book 1 of course


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

Dolphin said:


> I just hope I get some of the good bits. Lord knows I won't get 6000 borrows and wind up with a whole one.


Maybe they'll let authors with partial portions get together and timeshare their ponies. Otherwise, it's grilling time when my share arrives. LOL. (Um, not really. I've never eaten horse.)


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## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

Kit Tunstall said:


> And I want my share of the pony.


Oh geez, did somebody sacrifice a pony? What is it with you people?!


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## AgnesWebb (Jan 13, 2013)

I also have a feeling about $1.82 or something in that neighborhood.


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## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

$1.32

There is literally no reason for them to make it go up when everyone was complacent at a buck-fiddy.


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## ThePete (Oct 10, 2013)

I bet we have around 4.4 million borrows (~25% more than Aug) and Amazon wants to lock more talent in for Decemeber/January, to sell more Kindles and subscriptions. So, they'll go all in with whatever their loss tolerance is and try to keep the payout close to last month's, plus or minus 5%. Which would mean a pot of just under $7 million.

Of course, that's an assumption on top of a hypothesis wrapped up in a fantasy... but I can't help but bet!


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## 41419 (Apr 4, 2011)

$0.86


KIDDING!



$1.67


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

$1.27


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## Amber Rose (Jul 25, 2014)

Here is my thinking: 

They want a *really* strong offering of KU books in December, since that is Kindle season. 

Anybody who figures it is worth their while to be in select will take a week or two to pull their books, and then the 90 day clock starts. So if authors start the process on around the 15th, they will be in Select until end of Jan, more or less. Which is enough time for the free first KU month for all those new Kindle owners to convert to a paying month (Well, not all, but a large enough chunk). 

So, I am placing my head on the block that the pay out will go UP, and that by Nov 15 it will top $2. I'd like to say it will top $2 now, but I don't think they jump that much in a single month. So +15% or so, makes it bout $1,80 ish, and another 15% jump thereafter. 

(UNLESS...they DON'T want a strong KU offering in December, because they would refer people to buy the books instead of borrowing them. You're welcome. )


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## Chrissy (Mar 31, 2014)

$2.04

Because you've got to ask to get what you want.


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## darkline (Mar 30, 2014)

$1.41


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## D-C (Jan 13, 2014)

I think it's going to be lower. KU rolled out in the Uk and other countries, which means more borrows, therefore the pot is divided between bigger numbers again. I want around $2 but I don't see it happening. More likely $1:49


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## Evan of the R. (Oct 15, 2013)

$1.51


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## Hugh Howey (Feb 11, 2012)

My guess is $1.68 - $1.72


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## B&amp;H (Apr 6, 2014)

Six magic beans and a personalised photo of Jeff Bezos dressed as Napoleon. Sat on a Horse.


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## Wayne Stinnett (Feb 5, 2014)

Higher than last month. I'm guessing in the $1.60 to $1.70 range. Those that pull out are assuming that borrows would turn to sales, when there's simply no way to predict that or prove that borrows are cannibalizing sales. Three months isn't enough time to set a trend.


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## Mark E. Cooper (May 29, 2011)

Hugh Howey said:


> My guess is $1.68 - $1.72


Oy! No hedging bets you cheater! Hahahha. 1 guess, 1 prize


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## ER Pierce (Jun 4, 2013)

$1.75


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## Lady Vine (Nov 11, 2012)

$1.70. That way they can create the illusion that authors are actually doing better, despite the payout being roughly $0.50 lower than the usual $2.20. "It's higher than last month, so I'm happy," will be the chorus bellowed around these boards. But they're going to have to top up big style to reach that. Without the top up it would probably come in under a dollar.


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## Lyndawrites (Aug 7, 2011)

DaCosta said:


> I think it's going to be lower. KU rolled out in the Uk and other countries, which means more borrows, therefore the pit is divided between bigger numbers again. I want around $2 but I don't see it happening. More likely $1:49


Are you getting any borrows from the UK and Germany? I was really excited when we finally had KU in the UK, bet so far haven't seen a single KU borrow - sales have also nosedived at home.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

We've got a range from under a dollar to over two.


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## Wayne Stinnett (Feb 5, 2014)

Lady Vine said:


> $1.70. That way they can create the illusion that authors are actually doing better, despite the payout being roughly $0.50 lower than the usual $2.20. "It's higher than last month, so I'm happy," will be the chorus bellowed around these boards. But they're going to have to top up big style to reach that. Without the top up it would probably come in under a dollar.


Considering that borrows have gone up from 2-5 a day to an average of 50 a day, yeah, I'll be bellowing. Even if it's only a buck apiece.


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## a_g (Aug 9, 2013)

ruecole said:


> $1.91. (I'm optimistic!)
> 
> Rue


Dang it. That was my answer.

I'll go with $1.96.


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

A lot of writers I know don't "get" that Amazon chooses what the payout is and that it's not some random thing. To them an extra million or two in the pot is couch money. Whatever it ends up being is what their numbers crunchers have told them they can get away with. I don't see why it will go back up now. Of course I would love it if it did. I was avg 200 borrows a day last month. I just can't believe it and am going with lower than last month.


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## OW (Jul 9, 2014)

Based on recent performance I'm working with an estimate of $1.19 at the moment. Though am hoping that will be the worst case scenario.


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## I&#039;m a Little Teapot (Apr 10, 2014)

Amber Rose said:


> Here is my thinking:
> 
> They want a *really* strong offering of KU books in December, since that is Kindle season.
> 
> ...


This seems like a pretty solid idea. I think they're really going to push KU over the holiday season, and for readers to bite they're going to have to beef up the content.


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## D-C (Jan 13, 2014)

Lyndawrites said:


> Are you getting any borrows from the UK and Germany? I was really excited when we finally had KU in the UK, bet so far haven't seen a single KU borrow - sales have also nosedived at home.


Not many at all, actually. UK sales & borrows have nose-dived for me.


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Kit Tunstall said:


> Maybe they'll let authors with partial portions get together and timeshare their ponies. Otherwise, it's grilling time when my share arrives. LOL. (Um, not really. I've never eaten horse.)


Timeshare is a good idea. I hope that occurs to them before we wind up with mechanically separated pony parts.

I remain puzzled as to why anybody believes there could be a mass exodus of titles in the event of a strong dip in payout. Does anybody recall offhand how many titles there were at launch? It's 744,510 right now.


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## Quiss (Aug 21, 2012)

I agree that Amazon will wait a few more months before they start slashing the payout.

It won't be over $2 this month, because even $1.90 makes full-length novel authors still say "phew, that's not so bad" (compared to the previous KOLL).
It can't be under $1.50 or the same authors will exit in droves, leaving only shorts and duds in their wake.

So my guess is $1.65


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## wilsonharp (Jun 5, 2012)

Kit Tunstall said:


> Maybe they'll let authors with partial portions get together and timeshare their ponies. Otherwise, it's grilling time when my share arrives. LOL. (Um, not really. I've never eaten horse.)


"Yeah. And if wishes were horses, we'd all be eating steak." - Jayne Cobb

(Man, I miss Firefly.)

My prediction is $1.82


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## RhondaW (Mar 31, 2012)

I started tracking on July 18th:

7/18: 639,670
7/19: 643,879
7/20: 645,685
7/21: 647,450
7/27: 655,772
8/03: 657,724
8/09: 664,907
8/13: 675,077
8/23: 682,104
9/15: 703,302
9/21: 719,368
9/28: 727,302
10/11: 735,662

Hmmm, I just looked and don't see 744,510; I see 735,662 (looking from Canada but don't know if that makes a difference)


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## Quiss (Aug 21, 2012)

Dolphin said:


> I remain puzzled as to why anybody believes there could be a mass exodus of titles in the event of a strong dip in payout. Does anybody recall offhand how many titles there were at launch? It's 744,510 right now.


What would interest me is to know how many of the current titles are shorts, serials, novellas or any book regularly offered at less than $2.99.

I want a pony nose. Cause they're soft and velvety.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Since we're coming up on three months since the start of KU, I have a hard time believing Amazon will want to gouge already anxious indies with a sharp payout drop. As a lot of other people have said, I think they'll want a strong selection for the holidays. This is what I have to keep telling myself. My fingernails are already at the nubs.


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## Lyndawrites (Aug 7, 2011)

DaCosta said:


> Not many at all, actually. UK sales & borrows have nose-dived for me.


DaCosta - sorry to hear it, but nice to know it's not just me. 

I've already ticked the box NOT to automatically re-enrol one of my three KU books. I've already had more borrows than sales on that title so far this month and I'm not prepared to keep taking the loss. It's the third in a series and I'm leaving the first two in for now, but if the borrow rate for this month is lower than last, then I may take the second out as well when it's up for renewal in November.


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## D-C (Jan 13, 2014)

Lyndawrites said:


> DaCosta - sorry to hear it, but nice to know it's not just me.
> 
> I've already ticked the box NOT to automatically re-enrol one of my three KU books. I've already had more borrows than sales on that title so far this month and I'm not prepared to keep taking the loss. It's the third in a series and I'm leaving the first two in for now, but if the borrow rate for this month is lower than last, then I may take the second out as well when it's up for renewal in November.


I've unchecked that box too  I wonder if the 'Zon is watching.

I'll keep my first in the series in, and my short.


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Oooo, pony nose is definitely one of the choice bits.

Definitely appears as though titles enrolled in KU are rising. Questions about length and quality are difficult to answer...I just don't see what they have to do with the decision to participate in KU. Pulling your books out because the borrow royalty is lower than a sale royalty requires a lot of assumptions that I don't agree with.


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## Speaker-To-Animals (Feb 21, 2012)

I'm going to say $1.25. 

I don't see it going up unless Zon tops it off to keep the borrows competitive. As a KU member, if you divide my $9.95 by the number of books/shorts I've read, it would be around 50 cents.


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## ElHawk (Aug 13, 2012)

Jj2011 said:


> A lot of writers I know don't "get" that Amazon chooses what the payout is and that it's not some random thing. To them an extra million or two in the pot is couch money. Whatever it ends up being is what their numbers crunchers have told them *they can get away with. I don't see why it will go back up now.* Of course I would love it if it did. I was avg 200 borrows a day last month. I just can't believe it and am going with lower than last month.


This.


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## djv1120 (Dec 7, 2013)

Dolphin said:


> My guess is that each borrow will be worth 0.0166666667% of a pony.


A pony would make a great Christmas gift. Of course, I only had enough borrows to earn an ear (or less)


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Kat S said:


> I don't see it going up unless Zon tops it off to keep the borrows competitive. As a KU member, if you divide my $9.95 by the number of books/shorts I've read, it would be around 50 cents.


I doubt that plays a significant role in their calculations (if any!). They didn't set KU up so that they could make more money whenever someone reads a specific ebook. KU could be a runaway success for them even if a KU borrow is never more profitable than an ebook sale traded 1:1. This is equally true for authors, hence my ongoing puzzlement when people think in these limited terms.



djv1120 said:


> A pony would make a great Christmas gift. Of course, I only had enough borrows to earn an ear (or less)


Ear's a tricky bit, but not hopeless. Perhaps you could fry it crispy, slice it thin, and use it to add texture to a nice salad.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Wayne Stinnett said:


> Higher than last month. I'm guessing in the $1.60 to $1.70 range. Those that pull out are assuming that borrows would turn to sales, when there's simply no way to predict that or prove that borrows are cannibalizing sales. Three months isn't enough time to set a trend.


^This


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## John Ellsworth (Jun 1, 2014)

If it's lower and I pull out, let me say that it's NOT because I think borrows would have been sales. It will be because of the visibility of my particular book in KU, based on how and where the algo is putting it. To me, KU is about visibility and eyes on the book. If I think I can get more eyes by going wide, then I'll go wide. In the meantime what Zon does or doesn't pay is beyond my control and I try not to dwell on things beyond my control. The wisdom to know the difference--something like that.


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## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

Dolphin said:


> My guess is that each borrow will be worth 0.0166666667% of a pony.


Oh, man, I hope so. I will have almost 2 ponies! But wait. Do I WANT a pony with no tail or mane? My poor little bald pony!

No, seriously. I have zero idea. Zero. I'm just hoping for the best, for all of us. I'm not thinking about any decision until late November, when my first 3 books come up for renewal. Time enough to decide then--should start getting some picture of an ongoing rate.

(And yes, my sales are definitely down as my borrows are way up. But who knows what my sales "would" be in the new post-KU universe. It's not the pre-KU universe. For right now, I'm good. For later--we'll see.)


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## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

> Oh, man, I hope so. I will have almost 2 ponies! But wait. Do I WANT a pony with no tail or mane? My poor little bald pony!


You could get a gelding


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

we are all going to get screwed as amazon squeezes us for margin as was their purpose all along.


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## Amanda M. Lee (Jun 3, 2014)

I'll wedge my bet at $1.65-ish. I guess we'll have to wait and see.


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## Magda Alexander (Aug 13, 2011)

I'll go a penny under Hugh at $1.67.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

I can't wait to see who's right and wins the internet!


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## nellgoddin (Jul 23, 2014)

Chrissy said:


> $2.04
> 
> Because you've got to ask to get what you want.


+10 Backing you all the way!


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

May I ask why so many are optimistic they will raise it? They've already proven they can lower it and authors will still scramble to sign up. I'm just curious are there reasons for this belief? I personally have already counted all my borrows as $1 purely based on my belief Amazon knows they DONT HAVE to make it more to keep the vast majority of authors in kdps. Or is everyone here selling .99 cent eroticas so anything around $1 is great?


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## Hugh Howey (Feb 11, 2012)

Bluehorseshoe said:


> we are all going to get screwed as amazon squeezes us for margin as was their purpose all along.


What exactly is the point of a comment like this?

You say "their purpose all along" like the purpose of Amazon is to squeeze us for margin. You mean rather than opening up a marketplace where we can publish right alongside Rowling and Meyer and fulfill our dreams of being published authors and maybe making a little money doing something we love?

What is happening to this place? I know we can't moderate out the ugliness, the conspiracy theorists, and the fear-mongers, but it sure was nice when there wasn't much around here to have to work to ignore.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Although, Bluehorseshoe's response made my heart clench up in my chest, as per the rules of "the win the internet challenge," she/he does have the right to cast his/her prediction into the pool. Although, we didn't get a number. Was it less than .0000666666667% of a pony or more? Was it the hoof?  

Step right up folks, place your bets!


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## Sharon Eros (Jul 27, 2014)

Hugh Howey said:


> What is happening to this place? I know we can't moderate out the ugliness, the conspiracy theorists, and the fear-mongers, but it sure was nice when there wasn't much around here to have to work to ignore.


Agreed, big time. One of the worst parts about it is that sometimes it's hard to avoid those unhelpful comments while searching for the useful stuff, so I end up leaving this forum feeling more deflated than informed.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

I think if they lower it too far, they'd basically be destroying the industry. I just doesn't make sense to do that. I have hope that it will stabilize at a decent rate we can count on that also makes sense for the long term success of the program. It's a scary time, frankly, I get why people are worried.


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## wtvr (Jun 18, 2014)

Jj2011 said:


> May I ask why so many are optimistic they will raise it? They've already proven they can lower it and authors will still scramble to sign up. I'm just curious are there reasons for this belief? I personally have already counted all my borrows as $1 purely based on my belief Amazon knows they DONT HAVE to make it more to keep the vast majority of authors in kdps. Or is everyone here selling .99 cent eroticas so anything around $1 is great?


Because they have raised it in the past, and why would they have done that?
Without really getting an Amazon exec to explain the strategy behind the payouts, all we can do is guess. But my optimism is fueled by these facts:
- Payments have averaged around $2 in the past
- Amazon can and has added more to the fund
- There's no reason to believe that they want fewer books


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

LisaGloria said:


> Because they have raised it in the past, and why would they have done that?


Exactly.

Why would they be putting the screws to you now if they haven't been as aggressive in the past? What's the catalyst? You'd think folks who spend time working on plots would consider that more closely. Why should this happen _now?_


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## Guest (Oct 11, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> I think if they lower it too far, they'd basically be destroying the industry. I just doesn't make sense to do that. I have hope that it will stabilize at a decent rate we can count on that also makes sense for the long term success of the program. It's a scary time, frankly, I get why people are worried.


+1

And it's ridiculous to make us wait until the month following the borrows if others are right about them having established what they're going to pay. Why not just set that amount upfront, instead of saying "the fund is $X this month". I hate the way Amazon is screwing with everyone's nerves and livelihood with the ambiguity. So far, KU has been good for me, but I hate the uncertainty of not knowing what each borrow is worth this month. Or next, etc...


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

LisaGloria said:


> Because they have raised it in the past, and why would they have done that?
> Without really getting an Amazon exec to explain the strategy behind the payouts, all we can do is guess. But my optimism is fueled by these facts:
> - Payments have averaged around $2 in the past
> - Amazon can and has added more to the fund
> - There's no reason to believe that they want fewer books


They having done it in the past has no bearing on the here and now. New program new rules new realities. You act as if authors will flee. Let's not kid ourselves. U and the majority of people here Arnt going anywhere. If they lower it to $1 no one is leaving. This threat of taking ur books elsewhere is silly. Let's be honest here. 90 percent of people here are not leaving and in fact more will throw their 20 page eroticas into the pool. $1 is still better than 30 cents. Amazon knows that.


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## Mike_Author (Oct 19, 2013)

Bluehorseshoe said:


> we are all going to get screwed as amazon squeezes us for margin as was their purpose all along.


Yeah because Amazon has got such strong pedigree chasing margins over long term strategy right?

I hate to break it to you however self-publishers are unlikely to be Amazon's go-to source of profit any time soon. We are closer to an inducement aimed at getting someone on to their site to buy bigger ticket items..


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

Jj2011 said:


> They having done it in the past has no bearing on the here and now. New program new rules new realities. You act as if authors will flee. Let's not kid ourselves. U and the majority of people here Arnt going anywhere. If they lower it to $1 no one is leaving. This threat of taking ur books elsewhere is silly. Let's be honest here. 90 percent of people here are not leaving and in fact more will throw their 20 page eroticas into the pool. $1 is still better than 30 cents. Amazon knows that.


I do think Amazon wants more than just 700,000 erotic shorts available in the KU program, so they have an incentive to keep authors with longer works or higher visibility. I don't know how many people would leave KU, but I would take out my higher priced novels if the rate goes much below $1.50. I might ultimately re-enroll, but I wouldn't hesitate to try other vendors again first. I already have most of my books uploaded and previously published through those vendors, so it wouldn't be very difficult for me to make them live again. I imagine a lot of authors are positioned similarly and will drop out of KU. Even if they ultimately go back, a large percentage leaving for even a short time can have a negative impact on KU membership.


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> I think if they lower it too far, they'd basically be destroying the industry. I just doesn't make sense to do that. I have hope that it will stabilize at a decent rate we can count on that also makes sense for the long term success of the program. It's a scary time, frankly, I get why people are worried.


Don't get me wrong I hope it's more than $1. I avg 200 borrows a day and I don't write erotica. I just don't see it happening. But God I hope I'm wrong because the difference between $1 and more is a few thousand extra dollars...


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Jj2011 said:


> Amazon knows that.


Yeah, they do. They could slash sale royalties to 50% while they're at it and it still wouldn't make sense to pull your books in the vast majority of cases (see, e.g., ACX royalties). They would surely do that ASAP if your worldview was accurate.


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

Kit Tunstall said:


> I do think Amazon wants more than just 700,000 erotic shorts available in the KU program, so they have an incentive to keep authors with longer works or higher visibility. I don't know how many people would leave KU, but I would take out my higher priced novels if the rate goes much below $1.50. I might ultimately re-enroll, but I wouldn't hesitate to try other vendors again first. I already have most of my books uploaded and previously published through those vendors, so it wouldn't be very difficult for me to make them live again. I imagine a lot of authors are positioned similarly and will drop out of KU. Even if they ultimately go back, a large percentage leaving for even a short time can have a negative impact on KU membership.


I will do the same. My last preorder had 4000 orders at $4.99 in 1 month. I have readers who will BUY my books not just borrow. But in the short time that I've been here I noticed that the vast majority are short form erotica writers. That's why I disbelieve this "they better be good to us or were leaving!" declarations. Last I checked $1 is still better than 30 cents. If the payout falls yet again I believe that is amazons way of calling their bluff. And I think they will win...again.


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Hugh Howey said:


> What exactly is the point of a comment like this?
> 
> You say "their purpose all along" like the purpose of Amazon is to squeeze us for margin. You mean rather than opening up a marketplace where we can publish right alongside Rowling and Meyer and fulfill our dreams of being published authors and maybe making a little money doing something we love?
> 
> What is happening to this place? I know we can't moderate out the ugliness, the conspiracy theorists, and the fear-mongers, but it sure was nice when there wasn't much around here to have to work to ignore.


Glad to see you still around in spite of the ugliness, Hugh.

By the way, in response to the comment you responded to, I have been doing this a while and have never seen any indication that Amazon set out to screw over authors. While they're a business and not our BFF, they have treated authors pretty darn well for a number of years now.

ETA: Early next year I may (or may not) pull my novels out of Select. I am giving the KU figures time to settle into an average and considering if my use of Countdown is the best way to optimize my profits. I need a few more months of figures to make a decision, but it certainly won't be because of some conviction that Amazon is out to get us.


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## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

Dolphin said:


> Yeah, they do. They could slash sale royalties to 50% while they're at it and it still wouldn't make sense to pull your books in the vast majority of cases (see, e.g., ACX royalties). They would surely do that ASAP if your worldview was accurate.


Sorry. I thought the purpose of this thread was to discuss the ku payout and that All views were welcomed. I gave my opinion and attempted to explain it. /shrug

_Edited quote and text that responded to edited portion. --Betsy_


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

However much I want the borrow rate to be consistently at least $1.50, because I did just start writing short erotica, (haven't always, been publishing a year), and I need the ability to leave a bad situation ASAP, there is always the possibility that the rate will go down. That's the reality we are living with until we have a consistent trend. 

I have major respect for Hugh, but no one knows what will happen.


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## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Kalypsō said:


> However much I want the borrow rate to be consistently at least $1.50, because I did just start writing short erotica, (haven't always, been publishing a year), and I need the ability to leave a bad situation ASAP, there is always the possibility that the rate will go down. That's the reality we are living with until we have a consistent trend.
> 
> I have major respect for Hugh, but no one knows what will happen.


I certainly agree that the borrow rate could continue to drop. I just agree with Hugh completely that we'd be better off without certain strains of crazy going around. There's a world of difference between saying "the borrow rate might go lower," and "Amazon's bound to lower rates...because they've planned all along to squeeze us for profits."

I'd also agree that it's unfortunate that the fund/rate per borrow continues to fluctuate from month to month. It would definitely be helpful if they would commit to a figure.


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## Quiss (Aug 21, 2012)

Jj2011 said:


> . If they lower it to $1 no one is leaving. This threat of taking ur books elsewhere is silly. Let's be honest here. 90 percent of people here are not leaving and in fact more will throw their 20 page eroticas into the pool. $1 is still better than 30 cents. Amazon knows that.


At $1 I'm out of Select and I would certainly think many more authors than 10% would be, too. 
Some of this endless argument seems be because we're all trying to stick everyone in the same box. If this works for authors, then yippee. If it doesn't, then there are other options. 
I have two books in Select so I'm giving this a fair trial, for MY books. So far in Oct, I have more sales on them than borrows and not enough borrows to affect my ranking and visibility much. So why would I keep them in Select if I get less than half?

Most certainly, if I had shorts, they'd be all in. (My theory is that a lot of KU users are moving to reading shorts (porn or not  ) to get as many books read per month as possible to get the biggest perceived buck out of their subscription)


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## Navigator (Jul 9, 2014)

Jj2011 said:


> Let's be honest here. 90 percent of people here are not leaving and in fact more will throw their 20 page eroticas into the pool. $1 is still better than 30 cents. Amazon knows that.


I think you'd be surprised at how many really will leave if the payout remains low, even for erotica writers that typically charge $2.99.


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## wtvr (Jun 18, 2014)

It's not just people leaving, it's people deciding whether or not to put their new release in. The lady here who just made 40K in 10 days didn't put that book in. Not saying that the amount was a factor for her - I didn't ask her. But for someone with a new release that they think will be hot, the history of KU payouts could make a difference in their release strategy.


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

> What exactly is the point of a comment like this?
> 
> You say "their purpose all along" like the purpose of Amazon is to squeeze us for margin. You mean rather than opening up a marketplace where we can publish right alongside Rowling and Meyer and fulfill our dreams of being published authors and maybe making a little money doing something we love?
> 
> What is happening to this place? I know we can't moderate out the ugliness, the conspiracy theorists, and the fear-mongers, but it sure was nice when there wasn't much around here to have to work to ignore.


If i operate a business, and i can maximize revenue by lowering what I am paying on average and ALSO have people to sign up for exclusive contracts with me... I'm going to do it. And I'm going to find a way to do it. I dont see what is wrong with my post. In my eyes that is the nature of business. They want to pay us less. Not more. If they wanted to pay more they would have upped the borrows 1.80, not 1.54. These are astute business people and spreadsheet modelers. To think they haven't foretasted out the effects of these moves is a bit naive in my opinion, though i respect your success personally.

Why am i so confident that they are lowering our margins? Because i do multi-variable optimization problems like this ALL DAY and have for years. For amazon the OPTIMUM win for this program is to pay us the absolute minimum we will accept, while doing enough damage to their competition with their exclusivity clause to boost revenues. Also to shift customers and mix of borrows to sales, etc, etc. Plain and simple. There is a multi-variable chart which leads to an optimal scenario and a feasible region, and they are driving toward that region and hoping to hit the optimum. That is their goal, optimal revenue achievement in this business segment, as is the case for all businesses.

Opening up a market? - this market exists in the absence of Amazon. They are merely capitalizing on the hard work of writers everywhere, yourself included. It is a business, always will be a business and everyone needs to think like business owners.

I'll remain optimistic - but... not hopeful.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

The question is where that optimum point lies. How low can they pay us and still crush the competition? I don't think it's at a dollar or less. Sure they want smut peddlers like me in the program because my audience are avid readers. But they also want respectable books in the front of the store that they don't have to cover with brown paper.


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## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

Kalypsō said:


> Hmm, "The Price is Right," techniques. Well played.


Thanks!


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## EC Sheedy (Feb 24, 2011)

$3.47 _*Yippee!!!*_ I can buy myself a whole pony!!! And maybe a goat! And order pizza! Life is fantabulous!

(Just took my meds...)

$1.64


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## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

EC Sheedy said:


> $3.47 _*Yippee!!!*_ I can buy myself a whole pony!!! And maybe a goat! And order pizza! Life is fantabulous!
> 
> (Just took my meds...)
> 
> $1.64


That really did make me laugh out loud!


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## Lady Vine (Nov 11, 2012)

LisaGloria said:


> It's not just people leaving, it's people deciding whether or not to put their new release in. The lady here who just made 40K in 10 days didn't put that book in. Not saying that the amount was a factor for her - I didn't ask her. But for someone with a new release that they think will be hot, the history of KU payouts could make a difference in their release strategy.


Yep, this. I'll have a new series coming out next month, and I'm considering Select for it. I need to be assured that losing three months on the other platforms (where I'm established) will be worth it for the borrows. It really is a shame they don't just set the borrow rate at $1.75 - $2 and be done with it. This uncertainty is quite ridiculous, actually. And unnecessary, seeing as they set the rate themselves anyway.


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## Drake (Apr 30, 2014)

$1.67, since surely they are adding something to the pool for all the new countries included!


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Lady Vine said:


> This uncertainty is quite ridiculous, actually. And unnecessary, seeing as they set the rate themselves anyway.


I know. Just set it and let us get an idea of what to expect. It isn't really fair now is it...


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> The question is where that optimum point lies. How low can they pay us and still crush the competition? I don't think it's at a dollar or less. Sure they want smut peddlers like me in the program because my audience are avid readers. But they also want respectable books in the front of the store that they don't have to cover with brown paper.


Yes, and they will find it. But from the talk on these boards about people accepting less and still staying in you have to wonder... and i almost wonder, in a post KU world, does it even matter? Short erotica landscape has changed with this program. For good. Those readers have the highest bang for buck.


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## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Well, it's not a huge question if you charge 99 cents or write 5k word shorts, but I'm sure Amazon wants more diversity of content than that. They have to appeal to novelists or their program will be over run with serials, seconds, and smut. The novelists won't put up with a dollar a borrow. I haven't seen anyone say they would. I see them saying the opposite in fact. It's the short writers who are getting a benefit, finally, after years of 35% royalties. But Amazon needs to keep the novelists happy. They won't stay. If I were a novelist who did remotely well, I wouldn't.


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> Well, it's not a huge question if you charge 99 cents or write 5k word shorts, but I'm sure Amazon wants more diversity of content than that. They have to appeal to novelists or their program will be over run with serials, seconds, and smut. The novelists won't put up with a dollar a borrow. I haven't seen anyone say they would. I see them saying the opposite in fact. It's the short writers who are getting a benefit, finally, after years of 35% royalties. But Amazon needs to keep the novelists happy. They won't stay. If I were a novelist who did remotely well, I wouldn't.


true. But i see most erotica shorts at 2.99. Even if i look at the pricing tool, that is the "optimum price point" - which yields roughly 2.05 per sale. Now if you are at 99 cents with most titles... this is a win. But fro what i see mostly 2.99 is the sweet spot.


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## Mike McIntyre (Jan 19, 2011)

Kit Tunstall said:


> July was $1.80 (ish), and August was $1.54. Someone posted the history of KOLL payouts here in August, but I don't remember which author it was. I've only been in Select for a few months, so I don't know the older figures. It was averaging around $2.20 before KU.


KOLL Payouts:

12/11: $1.70
01/12: $1.60
02/12: $2.01
03/12: $2.18
04/12: $2.48
05/12: $2.26
06/12: $2.08
07/12: $2.04
08/12: $2.12
09/12: $2.29
10/12: $2.36
11/12: $1.90
12/12: $1.88
01/13: $2.23
02/13: $2.31
03/13: $1.94
04/13: $2.27
05/13: $2.24
06/13: $2.24
07/13: $2.04
08/13: $2.26
09/13: $2.42
10/13: $2.51
11/13: $2.46
12/13: $1.86
01/14: $1.93
02/14: $2.24
03/14: $2.10
04/14: $2.24
05/14: $2.17
06/14: $2.24

(Avg. = $2.16)

KOLL + KU Payouts:

07/14: $1.80
08/14: $1.54


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## Steve Vernon (Feb 18, 2011)

$1.41.

That will give me enough for a pony pepperoni pizza.


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## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

Mike_Author said:


> ...self-publishers are unlikely to be Amazon's go-to source of profit any time soon. We are closer to an inducement aimed at getting someone on to their site to buy bigger ticket items..


This is how I think it works, too. We aren't meant to make the Zon money directly, however we do advertise Amazon at no cost to them, getting them more customers and causing their existing customers to visit the site more.


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

I've been watching this thread with some interest. In general, I'm opposed to exclusivity, because I think it's unfair to readers (limits their choices for how to get the content they want to read) and is a bad business decision for career writers (gotta cultivate multiple income streams), but I've got a couple of shorts that I've been thinking about dropping in KU to see what happens with them. If the payout stays below $1.50, though, I definitely wouldn't want to put anything priced $2.99 or higher into the program.

I'll be an optimist and put my money on $1.71.


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## Betsy the Quilter (Oct 27, 2008)

A reminder (second one today on KB) that "troll" is a four letter word here on KBoards.  Please don't use it.  Or do any other name calling for that matter.  Posts have been edited.

Betsy
KB Mod


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Cherise Kelley said:


> This is how I think it works, too. We aren't meant to make the Zon money directly, however we do advertise Amazon at no cost to them, getting them more customers and causing their existing customers to visit the site more.


I'm pretty much willing to bet that we do make money for Amazon. The cost of running KDP is minimal and what comes in after paying authors is a mostly profit. Now is it most of the money they make? Of course not. We're a tiny piece of the pie. But I would be astonished if they didn't make money directly.


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## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

JRTomlin said:


> I'm pretty much willing to bet that we do make money for Amazon. The cost of running KDP is minimal and what comes in after paying authors is a mostly profit. Now is it most of the money they make? Of course not. We're a tiny piece of the pie. But I would be astonished if they didn't make money directly.


Yes, you're right, of course. I think we do make them money, too. I just don't think that's why they have us there.


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

Jj2011 said:


> I will do the same. My last preorder had 4000 orders at $4.99 in 1 month. I have readers who will BUY my books not just borrow. But in the short time that I've been here I noticed that the vast majority are short form erotica writers. That's why I disbelieve this "they better be good to us or were leaving!" declarations. Last I checked $1 is still better than 30 cents. If the payout falls yet again I believe that is amazons way of calling their bluff. And I think they will win...again.


Yes I'll certainly leave in my dollar erotica unless KU drops below 35 cents. I'll eat a small loss on borrows vs royalties because I don't think all borrows would have been sales without KU. However, a drop from $2-$4 down to $1 would certainly have me giving other vendors a whirl again.

And wow on pre-order numbers. My only pre-order yielded less than 100 orders.

_Edited to replace cents symbol which doesn't work with our current software. We're looking for a fix. Thanks for understanding. --Betsy_


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

$1.77

Or Amazon could just set it at a flat rate as we've all been hoping for. In fact, I think they just might, except it'll be in Bitcoin.


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## Guest (Oct 12, 2014)

Saul Tanpepper said:


> $1.77
> 
> Or Amazon could just set it at a flat rate as we've all been hoping for. In fact, I think they just might, except it'll be in Bitcoin.


I think I'd rather have a share of the pony. Hehe


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## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

Puzzle said:


> I think you'd be surprised at how many really will leave if the payout remains low, even for erotica writers that typically charge $2.99.


In July, people were saying they'd leave at under $2.

In August, those same people said they'd leave at under $1.80

In September, those exact people said they'd leave at $1.60

People are going to say they're leaving at X-~20-30 cents, but the never seem to actually do it.


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## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

Saul Tanpepper said:


> $1.77
> 
> Or Amazon could just set it at a flat rate as we've all been hoping for. In fact, I think they just might, except it'll be in Bitcoin.


You know, people say I'm a 'hater' of Amazon, but even I never suggested they'd end up paying people in broken nerd dreams and greed-laced tears.


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## Colin (Aug 6, 2011)

Happy Sunday!


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## ricola (Mar 3, 2014)

Hugh Howey said:


> What exactly is the point of a comment like this?
> 
> You say "their purpose all along" like the purpose of Amazon is to squeeze us for margin. You mean rather than opening up a marketplace where we can publish right alongside Rowling and Meyer and fulfill our dreams of being published authors and maybe making a little money doing something we love?
> 
> What is happening to this place? I know we can't moderate out the ugliness, the conspiracy theorists, and the fear-mongers, but it sure was nice when there wasn't much around here to have to work to ignore.


Most, not all but most, indies have seen their incomes crash due to KU. My sales, which had been LEAPING from month to month, stagnated. When you get special placement and merchandising, it's easy to be Susie Sunshine because the rules don't apply to you. I have series in and out of KS. And I can see the algorithmic pummeling the ones out are getting. So I'm side-stepping Amazon's algorithms. Finding readers other ways. I'm taking the algorithms in the jaw, but my income tripled anyway.

People are saying this because it's our reality. Amazon is now doing Kobo-style window displays. But they're pretending they aren't.


----------



## ricola (Mar 3, 2014)

Jj2011 said:


> I will do the same. My last preorder had 4000 orders at $4.99 in 1 month. I have readers who will BUY my books not just borrow. But in the short time that I've been here I noticed that the vast majority are short form erotica writers. That's why I disbelieve this "they better be good to us or were leaving!" declarations. Last I checked $1 is still better than 30 cents. If the payout falls yet again I believe that is amazons way of calling their bluff. And I think they will win...again.


Many stripped their signatures.


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## ricola (Mar 3, 2014)

Cherise Kelley said:


> This is how I think it works, too. We aren't meant to make the Zon money directly, however we do advertise Amazon at no cost to them, getting them more customers and causing their existing customers to visit the site more.


Actually, we make them an obscene amount of money. No physical products. It's a marketer's dream.


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## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

Always remember that every ~100,000 ebooks sold costs Amazon $1 assuming they charge themselves the absolute worst data rate to store and send them. So selling one $4.99 book makes the next 99,999 books pure profit.

But they also heavily benefit from us paying to link people to their site. We feather their beds with dollah dollah bills coming and going.

Kind of puts the nastygrams, the pre-order bans, the adult dungeon and the exclusivity obsession in context when you realize how much *we're paying them* to do that.


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## jamielakenovels (Jan 14, 2014)

Amazon is smart, they know they need to keep it attractive or authors will bail so they'll likely keep adding to the pot every month to make sure it's between $1.50-$2.00 per book.


----------



## Ann in Arlington (Oct 27, 2008)

Merged two similar threads -- sorry for any confusion.


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## ricola (Mar 3, 2014)

jamielakenovels said:


> Amazon is smart, they know they need to keep it attractive or authors will bail so they'll likely keep adding to the pot every month to make sure it's between $1.50-$2.00 per book.


My original prediction was that they'd stay at $2 until Christmas and then drop the bottom out.

I was wrong. Instead, they did fakey algorithm crap to yank the carpet out from under everyone who isn't in KU.

They had two choices: Sweeten the pot for people to get in, or slap down anyone who stays out. So far, their choice has been #2.

I am taking no bets.


----------



## Chrisbwritin (Jan 28, 2014)

LisaGloria said:


> Because they have raised it in the past, and why would they have done that?
> Without really getting an Amazon exec to explain the strategy behind the payouts, all we can do is guess. But my optimism is fueled by these facts:
> - Payments have averaged around $2 in the past
> - Amazon can and has added more to the fund
> - There's no reason to believe that they want fewer books


This. Plus, October is the month that marks 90 days for the early adopters of KU. Many of us have the option to re-up or not within ten days of receiving Sept. payout #'s. Seems very silly for Amazon to stop adding to the coffers right now when they've already shown willingness to do it before, and at such a critical time. If they want people to give it another 3 months, they're going to make it pretty. If Vegas was giving odds on this, I'd put a five figure bet on payouts being higher than last month. I stand by my original guess of $1.72. *crossed fingers and toes*


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## Wired (Jan 10, 2014)

Why the changing payout? What's the logic?


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## Navigator (Jul 9, 2014)

Vaalingrade said:


> In July, people were saying they'd leave at under $2.
> 
> In August, those same people said they'd leave at under $1.80
> 
> ...


Everyone has a limit.


----------



## a_g (Aug 9, 2013)

Mike McIntyre said:


> KOLL Payouts:
> 
> 12/11: $1.70
> 01/12: $1.60
> ...


With all the prognostication going on in the thread, this is what I'm looking at. The first six months of KOLL and watching how the first six months of KU/KOLL will trend.


----------



## Amber Rose (Jul 25, 2014)

Wired said:


> Why the changing the payout? What's the logic?


Amazon has a fixed fund dedicated to payouts (which they top up, sometimes). My understanding is that they divide that fund by the number of books borrowed (and read at least 10% of the way) each month, and pay that amount per borrow, to the authors (regardless of length of book etc).

Obviously the number of books borrowed changes monthly, so therefore the payout per borrow does too.

(But this is all very fluid. Amazon can (and has) just topped up the fund with extra cash at the last minute to increase pay outs, so I don't see the payout as influenced by qt of books borrowed, but more by Amazon's long term strategy. Which must include 'keeping us guessing' and leaving themselves the option of pay-out changes at a moment's notice)


----------



## Christa Wick (Nov 1, 2012)

EelKat said:


> I just do my usual and estimate $1.50 and hope that's low.


On my tracking spreadsheet, I do $1 and also hope that's low and that it's low by a wide margin.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Cherise Kelley said:


> Yes, you're right, of course. I think we do make them money, too. I just don't think that's why they have us there.


Ok, now THAT I agree with. 



anderson_gray said:


> With all the prognostication going on in the thread, this is what I'm looking at. The first six months of KOLL and watching how the first six months of KU/KOLL will trend.


A wise move in my opinion, but I would say that since it's what I'm doing. 

In a couple of months, we'll be much better placed to know how this is going to go.


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## Quiss (Aug 21, 2012)

JRTomlin said:


> In a couple of months, we'll be much better placed to know how this is going to go.


Pfffft. In a couple of month Amazon will have come up with something new for us to bellyache over!


----------



## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

ʬ said:


> Most, not all but most, indies have seen their incomes crash due to KU.


That's not my read.

I'm basing my assessment on fuzzy arbitrage of all of the anecdotes we've heard here on KB, mostly. Are your data more convincing?

Soon Hugh will have his own data to present through Author Earnings, I'm sure. Precious few other sources of insight until then.



Amber Rose said:


> Amazon has a fixed fund dedicated to payouts (which they top up, sometimes). My understanding is that they divide that fund by the number of books borrowed (and read at least 10% of the way) each month, and pay that amount per borrow, to the authors (regardless of length of book etc).
> 
> Obviously the number of books borrowed changes monthly, so therefore the payout per borrow does too.
> 
> (But this is all very fluid. Amazon can (and has) just topped up the fund with extra cash at the last minute to increase pay outs, so I don't see the payout as influenced by qt of books borrowed, but more by Amazon's long term strategy. Which must include 'keeping us guessing' and leaving themselves the option of pay-out changes at a moment's notice)


Not quite. The amount of the fund changes, as well as the number of borrows. Everything is variable month to month.

As for why they haven't fixed a rate, I'd assume that they're still trying to figure out what they want it to be. Tinkering with programs like KU is surely complicating things. I'd like it if they would eliminate all of this uncertainty, but neither surprised nor anxious.

This past month, they threw in three extras: 1) the bonuses to All-Stars; 2) a large increase to the pot far above and beyond anything they've ever paid in the past (in order to compensate for KU borrows); and 3) a small bonus distributed among non-US authors whose countries couldn't yet participate in KU (especially important for authors writing in languages other than English).

We can expect All-Stars and the larger pots to continue. Where per borrow royalties fall this month is, obviously, anybody's guess.



Vaalingrade said:


> Always remember that every ~100,000 ebooks sold costs Amazon $1 assuming they charge themselves the absolute worst data rate to store and send them. So selling one $4.99 book makes the next 99,999 books pure profit.


Which makes sense as long as data storage and transfer are their only overhead for this entire operation.

They probably don't have to pay for web developers, statisticians, analysts, economists, psychologists, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, corporate leadership, accounting staff, legal staff, IT staff, HR staff, health insurance, liability insurance, office insurance, paid leave, retirement plans, taxes, political lobbying, leases, water, electricity, phone bills, catered lunches, paper clips, sticky notes, paper, toner, office furnishings, computers for the staff, faux potted plants....I'm sure nothing like that or _anything else_ ever comes up in connection with an online store selling 3 million different ebook titles in the US alone.

Certainly nothing like that could crop up in connection with ACX or CreateSpace. Those things practically make, sell, and deliver themselves once we've done our part.

I'm sure if they're foolish enough to pay for things like that, we could throw up a business of our own in no time and out-compete them by cutting overhead down to nothing but the data storage and transfer.

I might do that next weekend, if I have some free time before football.


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## I&#039;m a Little Teapot (Apr 10, 2014)

Quiss said:


> Pfffft. In a couple of month Amazon will have come up with something new for us to bellyache over!


LOL! That's the one thing we can count on.


----------



## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

Dolphin said:


> Which makes sense as long as data storage and transfer are their only overhead for this entire operation.
> 
> They probably don't have to pay for web developers, statisticians, analysts, economists, psychologists, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, corporate leadership, accounting staff, legal staff, IT staff, HR staff, health insurance, liability insurance, office insurance, paid leave, retirement plans, taxes, political lobbying, leases, water, electricity, phone bills, catered lunches, paper clips, sticky notes, paper, toner, office furnishings, computers for the staff, faux potted plants....I'm sure nothing like that or _anything else_ ever comes up in connection with an online store selling 3 million different ebook titles in the US alone.


*snort*


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## wtvr (Jun 18, 2014)

Dolphin said:


> They probably don't have to pay for web developers, statisticians, analysts, economists, psychologists, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, corporate leadership, accounting staff, legal staff, IT staff, HR staff, health insurance, liability insurance, office insurance, paid leave, retirement plans, taxes, political lobbying, leases, water, electricity, phone bills, catered lunches, paper clips, sticky notes, paper, toner, office furnishings, computers for the staff, faux potted plants....I'm sure nothing like that or _anything else_ ever comes up in connection with an online store selling 3 million different ebook titles in the US alone.


I'm sorry, but could you please refrain from spattering your actual business acumen across the windshield of the Jeep Of Uninformed Yet Blustery Guesses as it splashes through the Off-Road Course of Indie Profit-Seeking? Thanks ever so.


----------



## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

LisaGloria said:


> I'm sorry, but could you please refrain from spattering your actual business acumen across the windshield of the Jeep Of Uninformed Yet Blustery Guesses as it splashes through the Off-Road Course of Indie Profit-Seeking? Thanks ever so.


LOL.

By the way, I have a 100% certain way to ascertain what the borrow rate will be.

I'm going to wait 3 days and find out.

This is such an ever-changing game. All we can do is adapt or die. Fortunately, we're perfectly positioned to adapt, because we're small and nimble. Big publishers can't change fast. They've got boards and committees and analysts. We've got ... ourselves. We can read the landscape and change on a dime.

That's my plan. See what happens, change what I have to. See what works, keep that. See what doesn't work, toss that. What I'm NOT going to do is get upset about "stuff changing." Because it will. It does. And Amazon is the prime mover & shaker amongst movers & shakers. Think you've got it down? They'll change it up!


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Dolphin said:


> Which makes sense as long as data storage and transfer are their only overhead for this entire operation.
> 
> They probably don't have to pay for web developers, statisticians, analysts, economists, psychologists, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, corporate leadership, accounting staff, legal staff, IT staff, HR staff, health insurance, liability insurance, office insurance, paid leave, retirement plans, taxes, political lobbying, leases, water, electricity, phone bills, catered lunches, paper clips, sticky notes, paper, toner, office furnishings, computers for the staff, faux potted plants....I'm sure nothing like that or _anything else_ ever comes up in connection with an online store selling 3 million different ebook titles in the US alone.
> 
> ...


All those things you list are costs for Amazon to do business, NOT the cost for Amazon to add and run KDP in the mix. While KDP no doubt adds to those costs slightly, at most the addition would be _very_ slight. I assure you that Amazon had web developers, statisticians, analysts, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, etc. long before they thought up KDP.

As for throwing up a business, that is pretty much what Bezos did, building from scratch. The business that pushes Amazon off their throne could very well start the same way.



Rosalind James said:


> LOL.
> 
> By the way, I have a 100% certain way to ascertain what the borrow rate will be.
> 
> ...


I like your plan. Mind if I steal it?


----------



## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

JRTomlin said:


> All those things you list are costs for Amazon to do business, NOT the cost for Amazon to add and run KDP in the mix. While KDP no doubt adds to those costs slightly, at most the addition would be _very_ slight. I assure you that Amazon had web developers, statisticians, analysts, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, etc. long before they thought up KDP.


God knows we'll never know exactly what their overhead is, so there's not much point in us arguing, but I think you're wrong about it being slight. Some measure of all of those expenses and more is being borne specifically to support KDP. They don't have gigantic margins on our books as it is, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're not profitable for them.

Regardless, the point is that it's asinine to suggest that all KDP costs them is data storage and delivery. I stand by that entirely.


----------



## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

Dolphin said:


> Which makes sense as long as data storage and transfer are their only overhead for this entire operation.
> 
> They probably don't have to pay for web developers, statisticians, analysts, economists, psychologists, marketers, customer service reps, account reps, corporate leadership, accounting staff, legal staff, IT staff, HR staff, health insurance, liability insurance, office insurance, paid leave, retirement plans, taxes, political lobbying, leases, water, electricity, phone bills, catered lunches, paper clips, sticky notes, paper, toner, office furnishings, computers for the staff, faux potted plants....I'm sure nothing like that or _anything else_ ever comes up in connection with an online store selling 3 million different ebook titles in the US alone.
> 
> ...


Very droll except for the fact that AWS is a business unto itself and everything already in place for that supports their other online programs. That AWS exists is a big reason WHY they can pull off the crap they do; anything online already has its infrastructure taken care of in-house.

It's the difference between having your own server and getting hosted. Running the server itself is sunk costs, but anything you hang off it is basically free.


----------



## Dolphin (Aug 22, 2013)

Vaalingrade said:


> Very droll except for the fact that AWS is a business unto itself and everything already in place for that supports their other online programs. That AWS exists is a big reason WHY they can pull off the crap they do; anything online already has its infrastructure taken care of in-house.
> 
> It's the difference between having your own server and getting hosted. Running the server itself is sunk costs, but anything you hang off it is basically free.


Brb, opening my own Kindle Ebook Store on my AWS account since that's all I need.


----------



## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

I was unaware that you owned AWS. As in the actual business arm with all the infrastructure. All the, as you put it, electricity and water.

Congrats on that.


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Dolphin said:


> God knows we'll never know exactly what their overhead is, so there's not much point in us arguing, but I think you're wrong about it being slight. Some measure of all of those expenses and more is being borne specifically to support KDP. They don't have gigantic margins on our books as it is, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're not profitable for them.
> 
> Regardless, the point is that it's asinine to suggest that all KDP costs them is data storage and delivery. I stand by that entirely.


You're right that I couldn't prove my point but I believe that in a corporation the size of Amazon that it is a small increase. That doesn't mean it would look small to me. Delivery charges which they tack on should cover the cost of delivery so that isn't even a factor. They already ran so much data storage that isn't really a factor either. The main cost is probably customer service. The other items you mention would not be affected by adding one additional service. Long before KDP they had liability insurance, office plants and paper clips. As a matter of fact, they already owned about half of Seattle.


----------



## Randall Wood (Mar 31, 2014)

To really gauge this thing called KU we should pay more attention to how much Amazon has to sweeten the pot every month rather than what the payout will be. 

The payout will be whatever they have already decided to pay, no more-no less. I would venture that they have Nov and Dec payout numbers already set as well. Its an experiment, and we're the mice. The real health of KU is in the dollars needed to keep it afloat. 

My guess; more than last month but less than $2.00. Say, $1.70. The amount needed from Amazon to reach that number will increase as well.

But, I could be wrong.


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

One thing for sure (imo). Amazon does not want KU to turn into an 'erotica ghetto'.


----------



## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

Ironically, that might have been a better plan, all told.

One imagines that if they just caved in and set up an active adult filter and very clear guidelines for what is and isn't kosher for erotica, they might make enough money that they wouldn't feel the need to monkey with the payouts. Or pull all these stunts for exclusivity for that matter.

How much money is being piddled down their leg over their schizophrenic policies concerning those I've decided to term 'the sexyfolk'.


----------



## OW (Jul 9, 2014)

So how many hours before we know then?


----------



## VEwoodlake (Jul 11, 2014)

$1.30


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Big Money! Big Money!


----------



## Guest (Oct 15, 2014)

Kalypsō said:


> Big Money! Big Money!


Wow. I know they say that writing is like a lottery, but ... yeah, that puts the KU program really into perspective, doesn't it?


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

You are the next contestant on The Price Is Right.


----------



## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

Seriously, shouldn't the Sept reports be up already?


----------



## ruecole (Jun 13, 2012)

They like torturing us? (It's still the 14th in Seattle.)

Rue


----------



## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

They used to have them out a least a few days before the 15th. Maybe the KU calculations slow them down.


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

Randall Wood said:


> To really gauge this thing called KU we should pay more attention to how much Amazon has to sweeten the pot every month rather than what the payout will be.
> 
> The payout will be whatever they have already decided to pay, no more-no less.


This.

Also, my own completely ignorant guess is somewhere between 1.20 and 1.40. I think 'zon will keep dropping it a bit each month, getting us used to lower payouts, until it reaches a point where they've decided too many authors are exiting Select, probably under a buck. Unless the rumors are true about them considering making all KDP titles KU eligible, then they won't have to worry about defectors from Select.


----------



## Gator (Sep 28, 2012)

I'm optimistic.  $1.72.


----------



## scottmarlowe (Apr 22, 2010)

I'd like to be optimistic, but I think they're going to hold it around the same $1.54 as last time. I'm all right with being disappointed on the upside of that.


----------



## OW (Jul 9, 2014)

The reports used to be out by now, though were really late last month.


----------



## Lehane (Apr 7, 2014)

I don't have anything in KU, but I'm always fascinated by this number, so I keep checking to see if it has been released yet. I am waiting in agony just to live vicariously.


----------



## Steve Vernon (Feb 18, 2011)

This will actually be the first month that I have got a dog in this race, so I am AWFULLY curious about how this is going to play out. I only had a few borrows in September but in October my borrows have out-performed my sales. I guess - along with everyone else - I am just am going to wait and see.

Oh well, time for some more turkey leftovers.


----------



## MySky (Sep 8, 2014)

This is my first month. Where is this number published? Thanks.


----------



## S.A. Mulraney (May 20, 2011)

I had 399 borrows in September (Dearest BookBub, how do I love thee? Let me count the ways...)  so I am DEFINITELY curious about the number.


----------



## AnyaWrites (May 16, 2014)

Merry Freer said:


> This is my first month. Where is this number published? Thanks.


You'll see the royalty amount under KDP --> Reports --> Prior Month's Royalties.

The report usually comes out on the 15th, but I haven't seen anything yet today.


----------



## MySky (Sep 8, 2014)

Thank you, AnyaWrites!


----------



## M. Frank Parsons (Sep 23, 2014)

It's not even 8AM out there. Was this info available @ or before 10AM Eastern last month? I don't remember a time.


----------



## darkline (Mar 30, 2014)

The report was pretty late last month.


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## Wayne Stinnett (Feb 5, 2014)

With over 1100 borrows last month, I'm clicking the refresh button every few minutes.......


----------



## Amber Rose (Jul 25, 2014)

And we haven't even mentioned the All-Stars yet!


----------



## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

They are doing All-Star bonuses again. So we can get that out of the way. Same amounts per tier as last month from what I can tell.


----------



## Guest (Oct 15, 2014)

Amber Rose said:


> And we haven't even mentioned the All-Stars yet!


Who or what are the "all-stars"?


----------



## wpo1408 (Oct 15, 2014)

$1.67


----------



## Wayne Stinnett (Feb 5, 2014)

Joe Vasicek said:


> Who or what are the "all-stars"?


Top 100 authors in each genre, including both sales and borrows and the top 100 individual books in each genre.


----------



## TheWriter (Oct 1, 2014)

Joe Vasicek said:


> Who or what are the "all-stars"?


Check this out -> https://kdp.amazon.com/community/ann.jspa?annID=554

Amazon explains it all in that post.


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

The suspense is killing me... I only had 478 borrows I think in September.


----------



## books_mb (Oct 29, 2013)

Whatever the payout will be this month, I'll 1. multiply it by the borrow rate (average number of borrows per day) and 2. add something to take into account increased visibility (regular sales driven per borrow due to increased visibility times borrow rate times book price times royalty rate) before making any judgement. The result of this is much more meaningful than the payout per borrow. Just something to keep in mind.


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

It's killing me too. After three months, we'll finally be able to see a trend. My borrows are skyrocketing and I'm already at 270 rank in my genre after a week.


----------



## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

Wayne Stinnett said:


> Top 100 authors in each genre, including both sales and borrows and the top 100 individual books in each genre.


Actually, it's the top 100 authors and books overall. 100 total (well, 200: authors and books).


----------



## OW (Jul 9, 2014)

I do wish they'd hurry up. I don't mean to start the whole "by" argument again though they do state:

"These reports are generated by the 15th day of the month."


----------



## jimbro (Jan 10, 2014)

OW said:


> I do wish they'd hurry up. I don't mean to start the whole "by" argument again though they do state:
> 
> "These reports are generated by the 15th day of the month."


The international date line is waaayy out in the Pacific Ocean. If you live in the eastern US, you may have a long wait.


----------



## Amber Rose (Jul 25, 2014)

OW said:


> I do wish they'd hurry up. I don't mean to start the whole "by" argument again though they do state:
> 
> "These reports are generated by the 15th day of the month."


OMG. That is just *brilliant*.


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

I don't think I'm going to get anything done today. I've gone completely OCD this morning. Maybe I should just play WOW until the reports post.   Maybe even take a little break from Kboards. Too much up and down and not enough focus on my own work.   I love you all but...


----------



## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

I have just under 6000 borrows for sept. I'm already counting them as $1 each. Anything higher will be a surprise but I'm not optimistic.


----------



## Vaalingrade (Feb 19, 2013)

OW said:


> I do wish they'd hurry up. I don't mean to start the whole "by" argument again though they do state:
> 
> "These reports are generated by the 15th day of the month."


New Topic Tomorrow: 'Amazon has been banned from making monthly earnings reports fo one year'


----------



## Amber Rose (Jul 25, 2014)

Vaalingrade said:


> New Topic Tomorrow: 'Amazon has been banned from making monthly earnings reports fo one year'


You win the Internet today


----------



## Lynn McNamee (Jan 8, 2009)

OW said:


> I do wish they'd hurry up. I don't mean to start the whole "by" argument again though they do state:
> 
> "These reports are generated by the 15th day of the month."





Vaalingrade said:


> New Topic Tomorrow: 'Amazon has been banned from making monthly earnings reports for one year'


You two are awesome! 

I'm going to be chuckling about this all day.


----------



## mrforbes (Feb 16, 2013)

be honest: how many of you are hitting refresh so you can be the first to post the payout $ here?


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## scottmarlowe (Apr 22, 2010)

mrforbes said:


> be honest: how many of you are hitting refresh so you can be the first to post the payout $ here?


Nah, I'm just hitting refresh on this post so I'll know when the report is up and what the actual KU payout is.


----------



## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

Almost 2100 borrows. I have it as $1.54 in my spreadsheet, so just a 20-cent swing either way translates to an $800 range. That's huge for me.


----------



## KL_Phelps (Nov 7, 2013)

my mind is being blown by how many borrows some of you have! WOW


----------



## Incognita (Apr 3, 2011)

KL_Phelps said:


> my mind is being blown by how many borrows some of you have! WOW


No kidding. My readers are obviously buyers, not borrowers. (To be fair, I only have a few titles in KU.)


----------



## Amanda M. Lee (Jun 3, 2014)

I have 2,383 borrows for the month and I'm anxiously awaiting the number, too. Alas (sigh) I guess I shall get ready for work instead of obsessing.


----------



## ElHawk (Aug 13, 2012)

Man, historical fiction readers really don't do much borrowing, compared to some of you guys writing in other genres! My income is perfectly satisfactory for September regardless of what the borrow price ends up being, but comparing my rates of borrows to some of yours -- little reason to keep my HF in Select just for the borrows. (the rolling countdown was worth it, though!)

Now, all the romance I've been writing lately... that might end up in Select permanently. We'll see.


----------



## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

ElHawk said:


> Man, historical fiction readers really don't do much borrowing, compared to some of you guys writing in other genres! My income is perfectly satisfactory for September regardless of what the borrow price ends up being, but comparing my rates of borrows to some of yours -- little reason to keep my HF in Select just for the borrows. (the rolling countdown was worth it, though!)
> 
> Now, all the romance I've been writing lately... that might end up in Select permanently. We'll see.


It's a plus/minus thing. Yes, romance readers borrow a LOT--I had 11K for Sept., pretty darn astonishing--but the borrows definitely cannibalize some sales.


----------



## John Ellsworth (Jun 1, 2014)

Rosalind James said:


> It's a plus/minus thing. Yes, romance readers borrow a LOT--I had 11K for Sept., pretty darn astonishing--but the borrows definitely cannibalize some sales.


I'm looking for a cheap seat to New Zealand.

Oh, yes, I'll take along the best-selling "How to Write Romance that Zings!!"


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

That's it. I'm just going to start telling myself reports come out on the 16th.


----------



## Usedtoposthere (Nov 19, 2013)

John Ellsworth said:


> I'm looking for a cheap seat to New Zealand.
> 
> Oh, yes, I'll take along the best-selling "How to Write Romance that Zings!!"


LOL. Half the borrows were on the 3-book US series, actually. It's really surprised me how well that's done. Especially since the first book is such an odd duck. But it's been borrowed like CRAZY since KU. I think people taking a chance on it. I don't think those would have been sales.


----------



## SunshineOnMe (Jan 11, 2014)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> That's it. I'm just going to start telling myself reports come out on the 16th.


 LOL! My refresh button is beginning to hate me!


----------



## JumpingShip (Jun 3, 2010)

The longer the wait for the reports, the lower I think the payout will be. My logic is that many of us put our books in KU the day it was announced in July. Guess what day those books come out of Select if the author decides not to renew? Today! I have four titles that will need to be opted out or renewed today. I had unchecked the box, but then re-checked them a few days ago because I don't want to lose any momentum by having the books out for even a day. (I lost visibility with No Good Deed in May 2013 when I pulled it from Select, even though it was only for a few months. Still trying to regain.)

But otoh, if the payout stinks and they don't tell us until tomorrow, I might be stuck in Select. Luckily, the one book that has a different date won't renew for a few weeks, and it's the one I'm most likely to pull.


----------



## KL_Phelps (Nov 7, 2013)

Rosalind James said:


> It's a plus/minus thing. Yes, romance readers borrow a LOT--I had 11K for Sept., pretty darn astonishing--but the borrows definitely cannibalize some sales.


DANG! I'm going to have to look into this romance thing  If I had 11K borrows I wouldn't be too worried about cannibalized sales. Congrats! Definitely an inspiration.


----------



## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

Reports should be coming soon. Looks like they've finished their numbers crunching and have designated sept allstars.


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

I almost feel like starting another thread: "Predict what time today the Sept transaction reports will drop."


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

How do you see that? That the allstars are designated? 

And why do they wait until the 15th to number crunch? Sheesh!  LOL


----------



## Lydniz (May 2, 2013)

My report is up. Obviously I don't have anything in Select so I can't help you. 

ETA: Actually, maybe I do. $1.52, maybe?


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Reports are out. I think it's $1.51 if I did the math right. Waiting for someone better at math and less anxious to make a new post.


----------



## HeyImBen (Mar 7, 2013)

Looks like $1.51 according to my meager math abilities.


----------



## LoriP (Jun 2, 2014)

Yay! It is more than I'd carried...


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

1.518

So guessing $1.50 was right. Still good for the volume.


----------



## bobfrost (Sep 29, 2013)

HAHA! They stabilized! 

Oh I love you Amazon.


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.   

All of us. 



Who is going to claim their "I won the internet prize"? Did anyone guess $1.51/$1.52?


----------



## ruecole (Jun 13, 2012)

Meh. Was hoping for more. But 1.52 isn't the end of the world.

Rue


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

Hurray! As I predicted $1.20 to 1.40 tops, I have to own up to my cynicism. I'm happy I was wrong.


----------



## Lyndawrites (Aug 7, 2011)

Only good for 99c books then. Bye-bye Select with another of my $2.99 books.


----------



## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

$1.52 or around there. Better than my prediction but it looks like $1.50 is where Amazon thinks people will accept. I wouldn't be surprise if this is the median moving forward now.


----------



## Guest (Oct 15, 2014)

Terrible.


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

I think the increase in volume compared to the volume we saw with just Select is more than worth the $1.50.

Also, look at it this way, those are READS. People had to at least open the book and try it out (no guarantee if they read all of it or not), but with sales, you don't know that anyone actually read your book. They can buy it and forget it. Yes, readers do that, I do that all the time.

But, please, everyone leave Select just before Christmas. It helps me. I'm not stopping until I make All-Star status.


----------



## Mike McIntyre (Jan 19, 2011)

bobfrost said:


> HAHA! They stabilized!


$1.52 is not only the lowest KU payout yet, it's also the lowest in the nearly three years of KOLL payouts. "Stabilized" is not the first word that leaps to mind.


----------



## Evan of the R. (Oct 15, 2013)

Evan R. said:


> $1.51


Nailed it. Pay up, suckers.

Wait - this was a money bet, right?


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

Evan R. said:


> Nailed it. Pay up, suckers.
> 
> Wait -- this was a money bet, right?


You win the glory of being right!

Congratulations. You win the internet.


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Mike McIntyre said:


> $1.52 is not only the lowest KU payout yet, it's also the lowest in the nearly three years of KOLL payouts. "Stabilized" is not the first word that leaps to mind.


You can't really compare the old payouts to now. Before, readers could borrow only ONE book per month. If everyone only borrowed the ten they can have out at a time, they would have increased the pool of potential borrows 10-fold. We should expect a borrow rate that's less than $1 honestly. There were nearly 2 million borrows last month. ($3 million divided by 1.51. Under the old pay out pools of money, we would be getting less than $1.


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

That is the lowest payout ever and I certainly am not a happy camper. I'm not making changes until January and there are other factors to consider, but leaving Select certainly looks like a possibility for me.


----------



## Hugh Howey (Feb 11, 2012)

Evan R. said:


> Nailed it. Pay up, suckers.
> 
> Wait -- this was a money bet, right?


I'll give you a buck fifty!


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

KU is a much bigger than KOLL. It's the very limited (one per month) borrow that Prime members got, plus unlimited borrows for the $9.99 subscribers. Last year when I tried KOLL for three monthsI got very few borrows, but at a higher rate. Sept and (so far) Oct are running about two borrows to every buy. My buys (which were often anemic, frankly) have not gone down. The large number of borrows at 1.50 has worked out to about double the dollar amount lost from Kobo, BN, and the rest, where I also sold very little. So far, a strong improvement to my bottom line. YMMV.

Edit: should add that my books are erotica. Other genres probably see much different patterns. I also have non-erotica, non-romance, non-series books, but they have all been dead for over a year. I put all those books into select at the same time: Nothing. No borrows, negligible sales. They will all come out of select and go back to the other stores, where sales-especially from Apple, and borrows from Oyster and Scribd (via Smashwords) do occasionally trickle in.


----------



## Evan of the R. (Oct 15, 2013)

Hugh Howey said:


> I'll give you a buck fifty!


Ooh, Hugh is going to read one of my books through KU! (At least the first 10%, right?)


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> Also, look at it this way, those are READS.


Excellent point. I have one 8-title series out. I am noticing the KU users are going through the entire series quickly ($9.99 a month vs $24 to buy it). This assumption is based on almost identical borrow numbers from volume to volume, whereas my buys drop off by about 50% on the second half of the series. It's unlikely they are reading only 10% of each book and still moving on to the next one. No, this is telling me they are enjoying the whole series (at least as long as they can get it at a flat rate!)


----------



## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> You can't really compare the old payouts to now. Before, readers could borrow only ONE book per month. If everyone only borrowed the ten they can have out at a time, they would have increased the pool of potential borrows 10-fold. We should expect a borrow rate that's less than $1 honestly. There were nearly 2 million borrows last month. ($3 million divided by 1.51. Under the old pay out pools of money, we would be getting less than $1.


But I HAVE to consider the extent to which it is cannibalizing sales and I am beginning to think that it is. KOLL didn't (to any noticeable extent) because it was only one novel a month. And at $1.50 that can add up to a substantial loss for those of us with novels priced above $2.99.

I haven't decided and probably won't make a decision for at least another month, but this makes me very uneasy.


----------



## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> There were nearly 2 million borrows last month. ($3 million divided by 1.51. Under the old pay out pools of money, we would be getting less than $1.


3.3 million reads. They announced that they added $2 million to the pot for Sept., bringing it to $5 million.
https://kdp.amazon.com/community/ann.jspa?annID=583


----------



## Quiss (Aug 21, 2012)

Yep, I'm out.

That's a dollar less I'm getting outside Select for my books, and so far my sales far outweigh my borrows. So, no.


----------



## Jj2011 (Oct 1, 2014)

T. M. Bilderback said:


> This is definitely me as well. I literally just entered my novels and some shorts into Select before this payout came out. I'll give it until January and see what happens, but my new novel will not be a part of it. I might try some short stories, but I doubt I'll even try those.
> 
> My boxes are unchecked, but have until January to run their course. I'll make up my mind for sure then.


I'm not sure but I think u have a 3 day grace period from when u r officially enrolled that u can still opt out. If u want just uncheck the enrollment date and u should be out.


----------



## Melly Mack (Jan 2, 2011)

Also, if you email them they will take you out even if the three days have passed--unless you've asked before. Apparently they will only do this once per account.


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Okay. So I think this probably just emphasizes what I've known all along... KDP select is just a tool. It's not designed or operating like a viable option for all books. 

In a perfect world, it would be used for non-New Releases who are past their "prime" in terms of being new and interesting for established titles. In an ideal world, we would ALL make preorders for our books, get on the charts that way, then have it release, being on the charts, and then six months later enroll into KDP Select as the electronic bargain bin at the grocery store where you can get hard cover books for $5. 

But it's not a perfect world. 

I have a novel coming out in December, I don't think I will be using KDP Select for that, or at least I will see what the sales are like on it without it. I'm keeping my novellas in until the series is done. That way people can always inexpensively read from the beginning.


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