# How many copies are you planning to sell in 2015?



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

The New Year is fast approaching and I'm putting the finishing touches on my business plan. That requires deciding how many copies I want to sell so that I can scale my projects accordingly. Does anyone else set goals like this? If so, how many copies are you planning to move this coming year?

I'd also be curious to hear from those who had a business plan for 2014 and how that plan went.


----------



## LeahEmmaRose (Mar 16, 2014)

I am planning to sell TWO billion copies. Muahahahahahaha!


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

David S. said:


> I'm planning to sell one billion copies. Can you write a business plan for that?


I'm less ambitious - I'm only planning to sell a million. 

Or, more seriously, I admire the OP's businesslike approach, but unless you're mega successful already with a string of known sellers, it would be impossible to project numbers. Actually, even if you ARE mega successful, you can't do it because you can still be side-swiped by Amazon or some other unstoppable force. See: H M Ward/KU.

What you CAN do, though, is to plan for the things you can control. For instance, in 2015 I aim to release 3 new books, bringing my catalogue up to 4. I also aim to fine tune my promotions to take advantage of having multiple books out. I also aim to finish the current WIP and write another book. These things are doable.

But projections on numbers of copies sold or money made? Impossible.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

David S. said:


> I'm planning to sell one billion copies. Can you write a business plan for that?





LeahLurker said:


> I am planning to sell TWO billion copies. Muahahahahahaha!


A business plan is a powerful tool. Estimating sales can be done using factors like the size of your mailing list, success from previous marketing and number of titles you plan to launch this year.

Successful businesses in every industry have commonalities. There are always curve balls and market changes, regardless of the market you're in. You adjust as they arise, but having no plan or estimation in place means you're going in blind. If that's working for you, awesome. I prefer a more structured approach. I'm aware that I may not hit the goal, or that I may totally overshoot it. I still find it useful. Just my approach.


----------



## Adrian Howell (Feb 24, 2013)

PaulineMRoss said:


> I'm less ambitious - I'm only planning to sell a million.
> 
> Or, more seriously, I admire the OP's businesslike approach, but unless you're mega successful already with a string of known sellers, it would be impossible to project numbers. Actually, even if you ARE mega successful, you can't do it because you can still be side-swiped by Amazon or some other unstoppable force. See: H M Ward/KU.
> 
> ...


I envy a person who can list "releasing books" under things that they can control. I myself cannot. My writing urge is entirely out of my control, so I have spent this year just promoting my current books, and I've no idea if/when I'll write the next. (At least my current series is complete, so there's no pressure.)
For me, what I can control is my promotion schedule, or at least how often I'll apply to these promo sites in the hope that they'll accept me.

Beyond that, everything is in the realm of hope.
I hope to write a book or two. I hope Bookbub accepts my application. I hope to sell a quadrillion copies.
2015 will be a year of hope...


----------



## Redacted1111 (Oct 26, 2013)

As many as possible?


----------



## RyanAndrewKinder (Dec 14, 2014)

I agree with Pauline. It would be difficult to have a sales goal as part of a business plan for an author. Too many variables present themselves in artistic endeavors. (Will people like my latest book? Will there be as much word of mouth sales? If my story isn't in the same genre, will people still follow me?)

What I do believe in is setting benchmarks to try to pass. Like I saw someone mentioning: increasing your catalog of works. That's one. Trying to get at least one month that beats your previous one month record (this seems more tangible.) Increasing followers on social media. Making certain you're working on generating site/blog content.

While selling more copies is desirable in 2015, I will be focusing more on tangible goals I set for myself and hoping that it has an effect on overall sales. My best month for softcovers so far is this month, actually. 130 sold so far. Whatever number it ends by months end, I hope to try to beat at least in one month out of twelve next year and will be over the moon when I accomplish it.


----------



## katrina46 (May 23, 2014)

I don't have a set number of copies I'd like to sell, but I want to hit the promo hard and earn 30,000 thousand dollars, because that's how much more I need to save to buy a house outright in my price range. I don't want a mortgage.


----------



## Guest (Dec 14, 2014)

I don't have a specific plan in place, but I look at my number of books sold so far in December on D2D, which I just started using. I like how D2D gives the total books you've sold so far. So, I suspect I will sell 1000 books by end of December. 

My goal is to have that number show 15,000 by December of next year. At least, I hope they don't reset it, so I can be sure. I enjoy setting goals because it gives me something specific I'm working toward. Sometimes I have specific plan. Sometimes I don't.

I also plan to have at least two more trilogies out by summer of next year, finish the current novel, and finish my current series with three more novellas. That will help with the numbers.


----------



## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

We don't have control over how many we sell, and of course we all want to sell a billion!

We only have control over how much we write.


----------



## Guest (Dec 14, 2014)

katrina46 said:


> I don't have a set number of copies I'd like to sell, but I want to hit the promo hard and earn 30,000 thousand dollars, because that's how much more I need to save to buy a house outright in my price range. I don't want a mortgage.


Good luck! That's a great goal. I hope you make it in 2015.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Adrian Howell said:


> I envy a person who can list "releasing books" under things that they can control. I myself cannot. My writing urge is entirely out of my control,


I understand that. I didn't write a word (apart from shopping lists) for years. Having children rots the brain, somehow. Well, it rotted mine. Real life has a nasty habit of interfering with a life of leisurely writing. But once I emerged from the fog and started writing again, I couldn't stop. The books just keep coming. When I say that I plan to release three books this year, that's because two of them are already written and the third is well on the way. It's not that I plan to sit down and write them from scratch.

But I'm well aware that I could lose the enthusiasm at any time.



> Beyond that, everything is in the realm of hope.
> I hope to write a book or two. I hope Bookbub accepts my application. I hope to sell a quadrillion copies.
> 2015 will be a year of hope...


I think I might just frame this. I can't imagine a more perfect summary of the self-publisher's life.

I hope 2015 is kind to you.


----------



## Carol Davis (Dec 9, 2013)

Half Pint said:


> As many as possible?


Yes, this!


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Chris-

I plan my sales. I do projections and then look at how close I came. 

I haven't done a spreadsheet for 2015 yet. Will probably wait for November's numbers to finalize tomorrow, and then it's on my To Do list for the last week of this year.

Tentatively, I"m planning 17 novellas and 2 novels and 2 stand alone novellas on EAW or a total of 864,000 words. I know I sell about 2,000 copies of my novellas and probably will sell similarly on my novels. So that's 19 x 2,000 x $2 royalty = $76,000 and the novels I make $5 on a novel so 2 x 5 x 2000 = $20,000. That's based on my sales that I have so far.


----------



## bethrevis (Jul 30, 2014)

I get what you're saying, Chris. 

I tend to make a few goals that are 100% within my own powers to reach, and a few goals that I can only influence and not dictate. Within my power, my goals include finishing a few books; within my influence, my goals include selling more traditionally. 

For my self pub title, I'm setting a yearly goal of a thousand copies sold. That's modest for some, but I think it'll be a stretch for me, given that there's no series/sequel and it's a standalone.


----------



## katrina46 (May 23, 2014)

Mizuki said:


> Good luck! That's a great goal. I hope you make it in 2015.


Thanks. I try to be the I think I can train, but we'll see. I occurs to me the younger crowd isn't going to get that reference.


----------



## Kessie Carroll (Jan 15, 2014)

I released three books this year, and since the third one, I've moved 5-10 books a month. Next year I plan to release 3 more books, and hope to bring sales up to 20-30 a month, at least. Also I hope to start building my newsletter properly. Right now the only subscribers are my two email accounts.


----------



## MyraScott (Jul 18, 2014)

I think a good goal is more than last year.  That should be easy.


----------



## Sapphire (Apr 24, 2012)

More than in 2014, hopefully a lot more. This is something that can't go into a business plan. One can plan the process and the effort, but not the results.


----------



## Guest (Dec 14, 2014)

MyraScott said:


> I think a good goal is more than last year. That should be easy.


Very true. And Katrina, I get the train reference. I'm not among the younger crowd. Lol.


----------



## Guest (Dec 14, 2014)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> Chris-
> 
> I plan my sales. I do projections and then look at how close I came.
> 
> ...


I think this is excellent projection and maybe what the OP meant.


----------



## zoe tate (Dec 18, 2013)

My "business year" doesn't actually match the calendar year, but I'm hoping to sell twice as many in my current business year as in the previous one (and hoping that's not too unrealistic, as for most of that year I had only two books published, one of which was far outselling the other).

Self-published authors have some control over our sales, and when it comes to running a business I think it's better to err on the side of too much planning than too little, so I support the OP's implied perspective, here.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> Chris-
> 
> I plan my sales. I do projections and then look at how close I came.
> 
> ...


This is very similar to what I do! Sounds like we're in the minority though =)


----------



## LeahEmmaRose (Mar 16, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> A business plan is a powerful tool. Estimating sales can be done using factors like the size of your mailing list, success from previous marketing and number of titles you plan to launch this year.
> 
> Successful businesses in every industry have commonalities. There are always curve balls and market changes, regardless of the market you're in. You adjust as they arise, but having no plan or estimation in place means you're going in blind. If that's working for you, awesome. I prefer a more structured approach. I'm aware that I may not hit the goal, or that I may totally overshoot it. I still find it useful. Just my approach.


Please don't mistake my silliness for disagreement with your idea of having a business plan. I do have a plan for next year with several goals to reach, but it does not include an estimated sales goal. There are too many factors outside of my control that affect sales. I am focusing my efforts on what I can control and hopefully the sales will come. Just my humble opinion.


----------



## gorvnice (Dec 29, 2010)

I initially reacted the same as some others, feeling like it was a silly question.  Then I went and looked at your Amazon page on your book and my respect increased.  Not only because you have a decent ranking, but a really nifty cover and good blurb too!

So you aren't just goofing around, but you actually are a smart business person.

I don't tend to think in terms of books sold, but profits.  The two are very much linked, however.  I'm not going to say exact numbers because I wouldn't be believed and I'm not interested in defending my sales figures.

I make projections each day by tallying up the month's sales thus far, dividing by the number of days that went into the tally, and then multiplying by the number of days total for that month.  So each day I'm tracking what I should be on pace to make for the month, and usually it works out by the end.  Depending on whether or not I release one or two new books or a box set, which can change things dramatically...

So even though I won't say my numbers, I agree that tracking sales is important and projections are important.  I don't have much interest in planning out past each month, because my releases are really month to month, as I write shorter books.  

Still, I have a general sense of how I want the year to play out, and I change course depending on if I experience a large dip in sales (then I need to write faster to make up the difference), etc.

Great question, and good luck this year coming up!


----------



## Scott.Tracey (Nov 30, 2014)

I've actually been working on a business plan for 2015 myself, since I'm planning my first self-pub book.  My goal for the first book is going to be very simple: I just want to earn back however much I put into the book itself.  Right now, I'm projecting that to be around 600 copies sold.  

Since I'm writing a series and plan to release two more books to follow, I'm hoping that the consistent releases will help make that a possibility for all 3 titles.  Because really for just starting out, making back your investment seems like a solid goal to strive for.


----------



## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Projections help me when I don't FEEL like working. 

I'm not wired like other authors and that's okay, it takes all of us  But I don't enjoy writing for the sake of writing, I enjoy writing for the high I get when a reader says "Loved it!" It's probably a sideeffect of being the generation that got lots and lots of positive reinforcement from the baseball field to the classroom. When everyone gets a participation award, I was that kid that wanted to stomp the competition. In a nice way though! 

So, I have to think to myself "Get the lead out, get the book done, it's worth $2,000 + if you just DO IT!" and that spurs me to get the party started. Sharing my chapters with readers is what motivates me to finish it.


----------



## RyanAndrewKinder (Dec 14, 2014)

I will say: Even though I don't believe one can successfully project sales figures for books - I do feel it's ambitious and gives you something to strive for. If we don't set goals for ourselves, we won't necessarily try doubly hard when we fall short of those goals.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> This is very similar to what I do! Sounds like we're in the minority though =)


Elizabeth already has a string of successful books in a niche market. It's much easier to make projections when you have a good statistical basis for extrapolation. When you only have one book out, even if it's doing well, it's much more difficult to estimate numbers.

Having said that, you do seem like someone who's savvy enough and determined enough to make a go of it. I wish you luck, and I hope you'll come back at the end of 2015 and tell us how well reality matched up to your business plan.


----------



## Guest (Dec 14, 2014)

One.

I plan on selling just one and anything after that is a bonus that will bring warm pleasant feelings.


----------



## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

Rhayn said:


> One.
> 
> I plan on selling just one and anything after that is a bonus that will bring warm pleasant feelings.


There is something to be said for having low expectations: all your surprises are pleasant!


----------



## NoCat (Aug 5, 2010)

You stole grumpy cat! 

I'm planning to sell a million dollars worth of books next year, which would be around 200,000 to 400,000 copies. So far, so good.


----------



## Wayne Stinnett (Feb 5, 2014)

For 2014, I'd set a goal of 50K sales. I surpassed that in mid-November. For 2015, my goal is triple that number. My monthly average over the last four months has me on a 100K pace, but I have three new releases scheduled for January, May and September.


----------



## FMH (May 18, 2013)

two million. 

And so it is. (Universe? Ya listening?)


----------



## Cactus Lady (Jun 4, 2014)

More than this year. I'll be releasing the remaining 5 books in a six-book series, which is more releases than I had this year, and while the 1st book has been in Select, I'm pulling it when its term is done, and it and the rest of the series are going into wide release. So it shouldn't be too hard to sell more next year. I hope.


----------



## D. Zollicoffer (May 14, 2014)

I sold 9,000 (gave away over 100,000) so far this year and I started back in June. I'm aiming for at least 15,000 next year.

I'm not crazy about that conversion rate so I may move away from perma-free.


----------



## EmilieHardie (Jan 2, 2014)

Well, I'm just starting out (on this penname, with the first book planned for early January) and I'd like to be able to get 3800 sales next year. It's not ambitious but it will cover the costs of my gap year  I intend to do that by taking advantage of all the fellow travellers in youth hostels who might be looking for a book to read.


----------



## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

In my other life (day job), I work in marketing so I'm all about crunching data and making projections. And, yes, you can project sales. We (marketers) do it every day. If we didn't, the companies we work for would go bankrupt.

Projecting future sales comes from tracking past sales and the activities that produced those sales. Amazon doesn't give us the tools we need to track exactly what produces our sales, but we can come pretty close by tracking our activities and the results of those activities over time. For example, I know that every time I post on a certain forum, I see a spike in sales. When I stop, my sales go down after a while. I know that when I comment on blogs, my sales go up, and they decrease when I stop. 

Track everything you do--forum posting, guest blogging, article writing, advertising, blog tours, etc. Track them over time and study the results. A pattern will emerge, and then you can use that information to make your projection. It's not going to be exact. Because Amazon doesn't give us all the tools we need, there will always be influences we can't track, but tracking what you can is better than tracking nothing.

Once you have that data, you can use it to make your projection, set a realistic goal, and devise a plan to reach it, breaking it down into the steps you need to take on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis. To me, not having that plan is like driving blind. Shooting for a general goal, such as 10,000 sales or $20,000 is too vague and it doesn't allow for a solid, step by step plan to get there. 

Anyway, just wanted to toss in my $.02. I know this was more of a marketing plan than a business plan.  

I haven't done mine yet. I'm hoping to get my plan mapped out during my Christmas vacation.


----------



## Sophrosyne (Mar 27, 2011)

My goal is to sell 35,000 copies in 2015. 

And wow, is it weird to see my avatar on someone else's account! If I get around to it, I may need to update that.


----------



## Carol (was Dara) (Feb 19, 2011)

40,000 copies, not counting multi-author bundles. But that's more of a guess than a goal. I'm considering my current sales rate, factoring in the number of new releases planned, but deducting a bit in anticipation of the market getting tougher. I like to be slightly pessimistic so I don't get disappointed. At least I hope at the end of 2015 I'll look back at this number as pessimistic. It's quite possible it'll look optimistic instead. Anything can happen in a year.


----------



## Lydniz (May 2, 2013)

I'm not sure how I could project sales numbers for next year. I've sold a good number this year, but I've noticed a slight trend of diminishing returns - or at least, my sales aren't rising as fast as they were a few months ago. I don't know whether that trend will reverse, continue or worsen. I need to plug my sales numbers into some sort of number crunching tool so I can get a graph, but I need my husband for that. In the meantime, all I can do is write more books and try to get more fans.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Kyra Halland said:


> More than this year.


And this is probably the best (most reasonable) response in this thread.

I greatly respect all these people making spreadsheets and graphs and extrapolating into the future from past data, and I hope it works out for y'all, but I worry for you. This is such a volatile industry right now, and there are so many variables over which we have no control. And for the OP, with just one book out - you can't draw a graph from one data point.


----------



## Carol (was Dara) (Feb 19, 2011)

I agree that there are too many variables to come up with truly reliable numbers. Sales are a little more predictable if you've got a lot of titles out and have six months to a year's worth of data to consider. Even then, a book that's selling 1K copies monthly at the start of the year can very easily drop to 300 copies monthly by the end. Ad sites and marketing strategies can (and do) lose their effectiveness in a very short space of time and retailers always throw in a few unexpected changes to shake things up. That's without considering all the new titles entering the Kindle store daily or even trying to guess whether sales of Kindle devices will go up, down, or stay the same over the next year.

That said, it's reasonable to have some sort of expectations and goals. I tend to readjust mine every three months, because the landscape changes that fast. I remember when writers used to make 5 year plans. We don't talk about those anymore because in the current market, 5 years is like 20. 1 year plans are a little more practical, although still farther ahead than we can clearly see. But if nothing else, mine will give me something to look back on with a laugh (or tears) at the end of the year. Last year, I was wildly off the mark.


----------



## darkline (Mar 30, 2014)

50,000. This is my aim. If I keep publishing regularly, it should be easy enough.


----------



## Amanda M. Lee (Jun 3, 2014)

I don't have any plans like that. I'm more &#8230; easy (yes, I said it). If I fall below 400 units moved in a day, I'm sad. If I fall below 300 units moved in a day, I'm worried. If I hit 600 units moved in a day, I'm satisfied. There are ebbs and flows to this business. I realize that. I accept that. I'm moving forward, and growing. Sometimes you take a step back. My goal is to hit $50,000 sales in a month next fall. No, I don't have a specific month. Given my current sales, that's doable. Will it happen? We'll see. I'm focusing on the immediate future. I have a publishing plan. I've passed the $30,000-a-month goal I set for May 2015 already. I'm not getting ahead of myself. Sales are slower this month. It's looking more like $25,000 after my big high in November. That's a step back. It's not a bottom. It's just an ebb. I have so many new ideas for when I don't have a day job after Jan. 10, 2015, I don't know where to start. I still have a plan. I'm moving forward with my audio books. It's a slow process, especially when I want the same narrator for each book in a series. I wish I had started earlier, but it is what it is.
After Christmas, I'm writing the sixth book in my most popular series. The main writing on that should be done right around the time I'm done with my day job on Jan. 10. After that? The sky is the limit. Literally. I have so many ideas. I'm keeping my blog at the paper. Yes, I know it's giving them free content. Actually, it's giving them free *popular* content. I have an extremely weird following, a lot of which stems from my coverage of soap operas. It's a niche. I embrace it. It's also giving me an added legitimacy under the paper's banner. I look at it as a double-edged sword. I hate what they've done to a newspaper I used to love. I'm a business woman now, though. I do what's best for me. Helping them also helps me. That's what's important.
Once January 10 hits, my big goal is getting on a schedule. I need to get back into a workout routine. Working 80 hours a week for the last six months has completely ruined my muscle tone. I'm going to be focusing on four pen names at once. I'm going to be regaining my life. I'm comfortable with my plan.
Setting a fixed number of units moved a month is counterproductive to me (even though I subconsciously do it). I know where I want to be in a year. Moving forward -- and falling back -- on a monthly basis is not in my plan. It's an exciting new adventure for me, and I'm looking forward to it.


----------



## D-C (Jan 13, 2014)

I had to do a business plan when opening a bank account in the UK. It was an interesting exercise, but the introduction of KU a month later blew all my figures out of the water. I set goals, but don't necessarily plan (not like I would for a retail business, for example). I make projections. But, there as so many varying factors, it's difficult to plan efficiently. (For example, I'm branching out to other distributors in Jan, and just cannot predict how successful that will be). However, it is important to have goals/targets, so I can keep an eye on the $. I'd like to sell double the amount I've sold this year. But that's just my personal whim.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

PaulineMRoss said:


> I greatly respect all these people making spreadsheets and graphs and extrapolating into the future from past data, and I hope it works out for y'all, but I worry for you. This is such a volatile industry right now, and there are so many variables over which we have no control. And for the OP, with just one book out - you can't draw a graph from one data point.


I agree, one data point doesn't make a graph, which is why I posted this thread to ask successful novelists about their methodology. I understand you're skeptical, and will be until you see a string of successful books under my belt. I'm not new to publishing, just self publishing. I sold my first short story in 2004. I had my first newspaper article published in 1995, first magazine in 1998. I write iPhone apps for a living, which requires many of the same marketing skills being an author does. There is a reason my first book hit #1 in three categories and why I sold 500 copies in the first five weeks. That wasn't accidental, and it wasn't luck.

My second book is done. My first novella is done. I've written the first third of book 3. All of these will be published in 2015 using the marketing expertise I've picked up here and in app development. Maybe I'll fail, but if the first book is any indication I tend to doubt it.


----------



## Amanda Hough (Feb 17, 2014)

This is a very good question. So many indie authors jump into publishing without having a platform. You have to plan for success or you can expect to fail.


----------



## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

PaulineMRoss said:


> And this is probably the best (most reasonable) response in this thread.
> 
> I greatly respect all these people making spreadsheets and graphs and extrapolating into the future from past data, and I hope it works out for y'all, but I worry for you. This is such a volatile industry right now, and there are so many variables over which we have no control. And for the OP, with just one book out - you can't draw a graph from one data point.


That's true of every industry. Every market is always influenced by things they have no control over, but I would bet everything I own that Microsoft has a plan. Apple doesn't develop products they hope will sell and release them into the market with their fingers crossed. They have a plan. Sure, anything could happen--every successful business is aware of that, but they still have a plan.

As far as having only one book out to pull data from, it can still be done. Apple started with only one product, and for many years, they had only one product. Even start-up companies with no sales make projections based on the market.

That said, having a plan doesn't mean sticking to it come h*ll or high water. As the market changes, you change your strategy. You have to be adaptable. I worry more about those who enter this industry without any research and without some kind of strategy.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> I agree, one data point doesn't make a graph, which is why I posted this thread to ask successful novelists about their methodology.


The thread title and original post were only about number of books, and not specifically targeted at successful authors, which is why you got so many facetious replies early on. As I said in my first reply, you can plan for your own actions (writing, releases, promotions), but you can't project numbers without a lot of data.



> I understand you're skeptical, and will be until you see a string of successful books under my belt.


I'm not in the least sceptical about you personally, or your ability to produce that string of successful books (as I said upthread).

I'm only sceptical about your (or anyone's) ability to project anything *meaningful* from one book. Bear in mind that exactly a year ago, Wayne Stinnett had just one book out, published in October 2013, which had sold precisely 23 copies. What sort of projections would that have generated? Of course he had plans and goals and ambitions, and he learned as he went along, but he could not possibly have projected numbers sold in 2014 from that one book, not in any meaningful way. This year, though, he has enough data to make projections for 2015.

I have no problem with business plans per se. By all means plan your year. Just don't extrapolate numbers without a solid statistical foundation for it.
[/quote]


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

PaulineMRoss said:


> The thread title and original post were only about number of books, and not specifically targeted at successful authors, which is why you got so many facetious replies early on. As I said in my first reply, you can plan for your own actions (writing, releases, promotions), but you can't project numbers without a lot of data.


Definitely a mistake on my part, which I quickly realized when I saw the first several responses. I walked right into them with the thread title =p



PaulineMRoss said:


> I'm not in the least sceptical about you personally, or your ability to produce that string of successful books (as I said upthread).


Thank you for your that.



PaulineMRoss said:


> I'm only sceptical about your (or anyone's) ability to project anything *meaningful* from one book. Bear in mind that exactly a year ago, Wayne Stinnett had just one book out, published in October 2013, which had sold precisely 23 copies. What sort of projections would that have generated? Of course he had plans and goals and ambitions, and he learned as he went along, but he could not possibly have projected numbers sold in 2014 from that one book, not in any meaningful way. This year, though, he has enough data to make projections for 2015.


I don't think I've been very clear about the purpose of sales projections from the perspective of a business plan. You know going in that they can be wildly innacurate, and you accept that market fluctuations can make your numbers irrelevant two days after you create them. You do it anyway, because having a concrete and measurable goal allows you to track your progress.

I want to sell 60,000 books next years. Sounds crazy, right? I'm going to do everything in my power to make that happen. I'm not assuming that I will make that many sales, and not building a business on the assumption that I'll pull in X revenue. Quite the opposite. I'm taking Russell Blake's approach. This is a business like any other, and most businesses don't break even for at least eighteen months.

If my sales numbers are completely off (and they probably are), they will still spur me to work my ass off until I hit them. What if I fall short and only sell 20,000 copies next year? I'd still call that a huge win, and I'd credit the fact that I had a plan in place.



PaulineMRoss said:


> I have no problem with business plans per se. By all means plan your year. Just don't extrapolate numbers without a solid statistical foundation for it.


Business plans start vague and get specific as a business matures. How can a franchise owner, or app developer, or indie author put together projections the first time without data? You guess. You extrapolate as best you can, because there is no other option. I don't care what kind of business you start, your odds of success go up if you have a business plan. Even if the first iteration of that plan is all guess work.

I will revisit my plan frequently, and make adjustments as the market changes. But I have to start somewhere.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> I don't think I've been very clear about the purpose of sales projections from the perspective of a business plan.[...] If my sales numbers are completely off (and they probably are), they will still spur me to work my ass off until I hit them. What if I fall short and only sell 20,000 copies next year? I'd still call that a huge win, and I'd credit the fact that I had a plan in place.
> Business plans start vague and get specific as a business matures. How can a franchise owner, or app developer, or indie author put together projections the first time without data? You guess. You extrapolate as best you can, because there is no other option. I don't care what kind of business you start, your odds of success go up if you have a business plan. Even if the first iteration of that plan is all guess work. I will revisit my plan frequently, and make adjustments as the market changes. But I have to start somewhere.


Ah, I begin to see where you're coming from now. And I take your point about start-up businesses having to guess (which is also my point, in essence, so I agree with you. ).

That's not a system that would work for me. If I were to project 60,000 sales, or even 20,000, then anything less would feel like a failure. I like to aim low, and exceed my modest expectations. It's less stressful that way. And after all, this is something I do for fun. I still treat it strictly as a business, but I don't want or need to talk about actual sales numbers or income. I have goals and plans and targets, but they relate to writing and release schedules, not outcomes. If I were absolutely forced to consider it, I'd say only that I hope to increase sales significantly with each successive book, and eventually earn enough to cover the costs of the books (not necessarily in 2015).

But if setting a goal of a number of sales works for you, go for it. I hope you'll come back in a year's time and tell us how it went. You'll have internet on your yacht, won't you?


----------



## Rachel Aukes (Oct 13, 2013)

My net units moved were higher in 2014 than 2013, but my net revenue took a dive. I'm projecting to recoup the loss and make some headway next year based on several new releases, two new projects, and more aggressive marketing. All in all, I'm expecting to move 52% more copies based on current market conditions.


----------



## anniejocoby (Aug 11, 2013)

Well, I plan on releasing a novel a month next year. It sounds crazy, but I have found that, the more I write, the faster I get. I can now knock out 5000 words a day without breaking a sweat.

So...I'm aiming for 100,000 copies. I'm bookmarking this thread to see if I make it. It's not too terribly crazy, as I achieved about 55% of that number this year, even with a flop series (my last one). Of course, many more flop series and I'll be sadly readjusting my estimate. 

Gotta write, gotta write, gotta write.


----------



## Kirkee (Apr 2, 2014)

Gazillion.
Planning on outselling Hugh Howey, Russell Blake & Annie Jocoby
combined.
I said I was planning on it, doing it is a different matter.


----------



## Cactus Lady (Jun 4, 2014)

Some more thoughts on this:

I can't make people buy my books. I can't control the number of books I sell, or do anything to *guarantee* that I sell a particular number of books. Instead, the things I *can* control are: releasing new books, making sure they're of the highest quality it's possible for me to attain, and doing certain things to get the word out (such as blog announcements, buying ads, participating in blog hops, submitting to review sites, and so on). To my way of thinking, an effective business plan would not focus on number of books sold, but on producing quality books and on determining which marketing activities seem to be most effective.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Kyra Halland said:


> Some more thoughts on this:
> 
> I can't make people buy my books. I can't control the number of books I sell, or do anything to *guarantee* that I sell a particular number of books. Instead, the things I *can* control are: releasing new books, making sure they're of the highest quality it's possible for me to attain, and doing certain things to get the word out (such as blog announcements, buying ads, participating in blog hops, submitting to review sites, and so on). To my way of thinking, an effective business plan would not focus on number of books sold, but on producing quality books and on determining which marketing activities seem to be most effective.


A business plan doesn't preclude those things. It requires them. Just like it requires projections. Pretend we're not talking about books. Let's say we're talking about the Apple Watch. Something that has never existed and has a completely untested market niche.



Kyra Halland said:


> I can't make people buy the Apple Watch. I can't control the number of watches I sell, or do anything to *guarantee* that I sell a particular number of watches. Instead, the things I *can* control are: releasing new watches, making sure they're of the highest quality it's possible for me to attain, and doing certain things to get the word out (such as blog announcements, buying ads, participating in blog hops, submitting to review sites, and so on). To my way of thinking, an effective business plan would not focus on number of watches sold, but on producing quality watches and on determining which marketing activities seem to be most effective.


Do you think Apple has projections about the number of watches they're going to sell? I'm not meaning to sound snarky, just trying to illustrate that projections are a widely accepted practice by a lot of industries. You don't have to believe in or use them, but a lot of great companies do.


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> Do you think Apple has projections about the number of watches they're going to sell? I'm not meaning to sound snarky, just trying to illustrate that projections are a widely accepted practice by a lot of industries. You don't have to believe in or use them, but a lot of great companies do.


If you have to manufacture the product, and build up stocks in warehouses, and ship them to stores before launch day, then *of course* you have to have projections. You have to commit actual money to the product. You have a sizeable investment in it, taking into account development, manufacturing, promotion and all the rest of it. You have to have an idea of how many you might sell, because you have to make them first.

Digital products are very different. There needn't be any financial investment in the product at all, beyond the author's time. Even if an author shells out for professional help, it's hard to spend more than a thousand or two on it. And there is literally no limit on the number that can be produced from the original template.

So you don't *have* to make projections about numbers sold, because you don't have to make them ahead of time. You can if you want to, and if you have enough data it might even be meaningful, but it's not necessary.

Putting it another way: if you were to go to your bank and say 'I plan to sell 60,000 copies in 2015', the manager would simply say 'And how do you propose to do that, Mr Fox?'. In other words, the important part of your business plan is not the projected numbers, but the actions you propose to take to try to make it happen.


----------



## Sylvia R. Frost (Jan 8, 2014)

Two trillion.


----------



## ruecole (Jun 13, 2012)

1000 would make me happy. 

Rue


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

PaulineMRoss said:


> Putting it another way: if you were to go to your bank and say 'I plan to sell 60,000 copies in 2015', the manager would simply say 'And how do you propose to do that, Mr Fox?'. In other words, the important part of your business plan is not the projected numbers, but the actions you propose to take to try to make it happen.


I am an app developer at an early stage startup. This is _exactly_ what we had to do for the investors. We explained in detail how many copies of the app would be sold and how many ear exams we'd be able to collect. We had to answer the how question as well, which required formulating the best marketing plan possible. All this despite no one ever doing what we're doing. Being forced to answer the question prompts you to build that awesome marketing plan.

You can argue against projections, or that they don't make sense with a digital model. I work for a software company and can tell you from direct experience they are very useful, and as I explained up thread your numbers will get increasingly accurate over time. But you have to start somewhere.

I projected a thousand sales between October 25th and the end of the year before releasing anything. As of today I'm at about 750 and my rank is rising. By the end of the year I expect to be pretty close to a thousand. You clearly don't find that data useful, because ultimately it was an educated guess I happened to get mostly right. They were a starting point, one that I learned from and have used to create the next set of projections.

Again it's fine that you don't use them, but arguing that they have no merit does run counter to what every digital publisher does. Even the ones just starting out who have to tell the hypothetical bank how they plan to hit their imaginary numbers.

I get that you disagree. That's cool. I will keep refining my imaginary numbers and using them to make more =p


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> Being forced to answer the question prompts you to build that awesome marketing plan.


Yes, excellent point. I'm going to shut up about this now, and sit back and watch your awesome climb to best-seller-dom. 

[PS Not being sarcastic here, for a change! I really believe you'll do this.]


----------



## kathrynoh (Oct 17, 2012)

I've never done any kind of projections or much planning beyond the next book but I can see that it would be incredibly helpful. I do have a lot of data on my past sales. One thing I've been slack about is tracking promotions and how effective they are. I was actually trying to work this out today using the Amazon reports. 

Chris, are you just projecting number of sales? There is a world of difference between selling 60,000 books at 99c each and the same at say $4.99.


----------



## Nymirra (Mar 15, 2014)

There are goals and dreams. You can't plan for dreams, sadly, and the amount of copies I want to sell is unfortunately firmly nestled in the dreams part. You can plan to put a lot of work into writing, publishing and promoting and thus reasonably expect to sell, but that's the best you can do, really. That's what I, and a lot of others, do.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

kathrynoh said:


> Chris, are you just projecting number of sales? There is a world of difference between selling 60,000 books at 99c each and the same at say $4.99.


Because this is a new business I've given myself 12 months to break even, so for the first year I care more about books sold and less about profit. The idea is that 60,000 copies will help build both a brand and a following. One of my other imaginary numbers is 6,000 people on my mailing list 

My first book is selling at $2.99 and I'm releasing 3 novellas at 99 cents. I will be releasing two more books in 2015, both priced at $3.99. At the end of the year if they are doing well I will likely raise prices across the board.



PaulineMRoss said:


> Yes, excellent point. I'm going to shut up about this now, and sit back and watch your awesome climb to best-seller-dom.
> 
> [PS Not being sarcastic here, for a change! I really believe you'll do this.]


Pauline, you've raised excellent points, and I don't think that my method is the only way. I've been trained by the startup world, but there are people all around us on these boards selling a bajillion copies who could care less about sales projections. I fully expect you to be right there next to me in our climb to best seller-dom. Love debating this stuff with you!


----------



## PearlEarringLady (Feb 28, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> Love debating this stuff with you!


And ditto! You've made me think about a lot of stuff I'd never thought about before. Interesting discussion.


----------



## Guest (Dec 20, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> The New Year is fast approaching and I'm putting the finishing touches on my business plan. That requires deciding how many copies I want to sell so that I can scale my projects accordingly. Does anyone else set goals like this? If so, how many copies are you planning to move this coming year?
> 
> I'd also be curious to hear from those who had a business plan for 2014 and how that plan went.


I did well with my business plan for 2014 until around September when, for various reasons, I let it slip. I have a new plan for 2015 that takes me in a new direction with a new genre. I hope I've learned from the mistakes I made in 2014 as we move into 2015.


----------



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

I believe in you Kayla. I think you'll blow your 367 goal out of the water in 2015.


----------



## gorvnice (Dec 29, 2010)

Hey Chris,

I actually think you're doing what most reasonable, seasoned business owners would do in this position.

The reason it seems so odd on kboards is because this place is filled with writers--not businesspeople.  And the only reason writers can't be businesspeople is because most of us had it hammered into our heads that "artists" don't care or even consider business.

So we scoff at ideas like sales projections and all of the basic concepts you're addressing in your post--and that's why like one third of your responses ended up being jokes.  So a useless thread about "are your sales up today??" will get like six thousand serious responses, while a really smart, interesting thread like yours will consist of mainly jokes and pushback with just a few genuine replies that further the conversation.

This has to do with the artist mythology that has trained writers to think that as long as they're making serious, important, beloved art, they will eventually be rewarded with critical acclaim and financial wellbeing.  Or, failing that, they can live out the artist martyr mythology, wherein their work might only be appreciated by the knowledgable few until after their death.  Then, they will find true greatness…

So you see, it's this kind of mythology in the writer community that breeds skepticism and sometimes even outright hostility towards very fundamental business principles such as what you're espousing.

I think what you're doing is a great template for success, and it shows based on the early success you've already had.  It's definitely not a fluke.  Great work, please keep us updated with your results!


----------



## AA.A (Sep 6, 2012)

I currently have only 2 novels. I am to planning to make them 5 by April. I am hoping for 15,000 copies for 2015.


----------



## sngraves (Aug 10, 2014)

I'm planning to sell all the copies. ALL OF THEM!

TO EVERYONE!









Mwhahahahahahaha.

Or, you know, just as many as people will buy.


----------



## Moist_Tissue (Dec 6, 2013)

It makes sense to me that you would want to project sales. If you lay out an expected sales rate for each month, adjusting by looking at previous  monthly trends YoY, then you can develop a marketing funnel.


----------



## I&#039;m a Little Teapot (Apr 10, 2014)

I've spent a lot of time lately thinking about this. I'm taking it quarter by quarter, at this point. I'm about to launch a new series, so I'm shooting for 750 sales a month for the first quarter, and hopefully 1500 per month for the second quarter. After that, I'll reassess the situation and alter my projections for the final two quarters as needed. Things can change on a dime in self-publishing, so mapping out a whole year in advance doesn't work for me.


----------



## funthebear (Sep 26, 2014)

666,666

November I sold 4k. This month, 6.5k.

So that's an 849% increase in sales.

The more important thing is I have a plan for how to achieve that growth

For me, being correct isn't the point of my projections

Some people write for money, some people don't (even if they'd like to earn money from it). I think a lot of the debates here are spurred on by that.

P.S., I like your covers, OP (they remind me of Goosebumps), and I like you


----------



## Kristy Tate (Apr 24, 2012)

I just wrote a blog post about this. You can read the entire thing here. kristystories.blogspot.com But for those interested in just the book side of thing, here's an excerpt.
(I've been so humbled by this writing thing, I'm afraid some this will sound like bragging. So please, this wants to be honest information and not horn blowing. When it comes to having something to toot about, I have a very small horn.)
On the book front:
I published:
BEYOND THE HOLLOW and BEYOND THE PALE—books two and three of my Beyond series. Both have bounced off and on Amazon’s time-travel bestseller lists. As I’m writing, Beyond the Hollow is currently #25 on Amazon’s bestseller time-travel list. I believe that their success is largely due to fact that book one of the series is included in the Paranormal 13 Anthology, which has been wildly successful. Here’s the stats as of right now:
#83 Free in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Free in Kindle Store)
#1 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Romance > Paranormal > Ghosts
#1 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Romance > Paranormal > Psychics
#3 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Romance > Paranormal > Witches & Wizards
For the most part, being included in anthologies has been great for me.
This year I also published STUCK WITH YOU, which was included in the Authors of Main Street Wedding Anthology. But I also published THE WITCHING WELL in the Autumn's Kiss: Ten Contemporary & Historical Sweet Romances. This box set has languished from the beginning. I have my suspicions why, but since I’m only one of the ten authors in the set (and my book is the very last one) I haven’t had much sway.
My story, ANYWHERE ELSE, is in an awesome anthology of 101 stories written by bestselling indie authors, called 101 Stories, On the Go. This was an interesting challenge. The story had to be less than a thousand words. Mine is something like 997. I loved doing it, and I’m really grateful to have been included.
And just a few weeks ago, I published THE HIGHWAYMAN INCIDENT, the first book in my Witching Well series.
So, production-wise:
3 novels
One novella (and one novella that grew into a novel)
One short story
Business-wise
I found an editor that I love, and she is currently re-editing four of my books.
I discovered Draft2Digital, so I no longer have to pay for formatting.
I learned that anthologies can help sell my other books.
And getting picked up by Pixel of Ink is like having Heaven smiling down on you, and blessing you with enormous sales.
I also learned the awesome power of spreadsheets. I’ll admit that in the beginning, keeping track of my money versus man-hours was just depressing, but since I’ve started using spreadsheets and holding my feet to the fire and my fingers to the keyboard, it’s so much easier to see where I’ve been and where I’m going.
So, here’s my projections for 2015:
Publish:
LOVE AT THE APPLE INN, a Rose Arbor novella to be included in the Authors of Main Street Love in Bloom boxed set. This is actually finished and with the editor. I’ll publish it on its own in early January, and it will come out in the boxed set in the spring. I hope to have its sequel, LOVE HITS THE ROAD finished close to the publication of the boxed set.
THE COWBOY ENCOUNTER, the second book in the Witching Well series. I’m about halfway through the first draft. I hope to have it published in March.
THE PIRATE EPISODE, the third book in the Witching Well series, is little more than an outline. I imagine a summer release.
Also, I have a teen-age witch who is whispering in my ear. I really want to tell her story…and I will. In time.


----------



## Drake (Apr 30, 2014)

MyraScott said:


> I think a good goal is more than last year. That should be easy.


I agree. My goal is to sell double what I have sold in 2014. Wish me luck!


----------



## Sever Bronny (May 13, 2013)

You guys are inspiring.

My plan for the next year is to finish my series while releasing books two and three. I don't have any sales targets yet--I figure I'll concentrate on those in late 2016, after the series is fully released. For now, every sale is a bonus, so to speak. My life expenses are relatively low which help ease the pressure. 

Interesting reading everyone's goals though. So darn inspiring, you savvy people


----------



## hermione47 (Nov 5, 2014)

oakwood said:


> Personally, I wouldn't want to do a numbered sales projection on publishing which is so dependent on genre popularity fluctuations, pricing strategies, promotion success, marketplace environment, and why not add other authors discovering your golden nugget niche and piling in on the scene
> 
> All the best to those who make projections, I hope you reach your goals.
> 
> ...


Gosh, I just read this and found it amazing! I salute you! There's nothing I admire more than bridge-burning....


----------

