# 10x Thinking: Applying startup methodology to indie publishing



## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

I live in the land of Uber and Fitbit, where Apple is king and Google Glass is normal. Where Elon Musk holds court and billionaires seek the next Youtube. San Francisco is a fascinating culture with different rules, and a wholly different religion. It's called 10x Thinking, the art of Dreaming Big. Those who embrace it risk everything playing the great game of business. They invite criticism, and they listen attentively when it is given. They make bold choices, and study failures closely.

This religion is not for everyone. For every successful startup there are dozens of flameouts. It is high risk, high reward. If you have a day job you hate, or need immediate income then you should give very serious consideration to the publish often methodology many successful authors espouse here.

Publishing often will help hone your craft, and give you invaluable experience. It can show you what works and doesn't, because you are iterating very quickly. My religion refers to this as prototyping. Without it you are simply too slow. Too ungainly. We recognize the value in rapid releases, but not at the expense of quality.

*Thou Shalt Be Agile*

The startup world adheres to the Agile methodology. We have scrum masters and sprints, software suites and epic debates. All surrounding one simple principle. What was true yesterday may not be true today. It will definitely not be true tomorrow. We embrace Wayne Gretzky's philosophy that good players go where the puck is. Great players go where the puck will be.

This often means a sharp pivot, a dramatic change to your business. For writers that can be identifying a potential hot new genre, or experimenting with shorter (or longer) works. You must be able to react quickly, which is the essence of any successful business.

This is why you hear the drum beat of publish quickly, but as you'll see below this must be done very carefully.

*Thou Shalt Breakout*

There are hundreds of billions of dollars in funding available in San Francisco. CellScope (my company) has already raised 5.6 million dollars. We're a tiny fish in a very large pond.

Every investor is looking for the same thing. They want to back The Next Big Thing. They don't care if you can make a profit quickly. They care whether you can create or fundamentally redefine a market.

Nothing else matters. I understand the advocates of publishing quickly, because as some users have pointed out that gives you more swings at the ball. More chances for a home run. But it risks sacrificing brand to do it. Mediocrity is dangerous, and excessive speed risks falling into that trap.

*Thou Shalt Brand*

Brand is everything. Your audience must not only know you exist, but eagerly await every product. They must become devotees of your religion, advocates in the quest for more converts.

Achieving this is the holy grail, the reason Apple succeeded and Blackberry face planted. It requires polish, consistency and patience. Your brand is like a garden, requiring constant care and attention if you want it to bloom.

You must not just create good products, but great ones. In our world that means amazing covers. Incredible blurbs. Stellar reviews, awarded to stellar products. Fail in any of these areas and readers will lose faith.

There can't be any weak spots in your brand, any ****** in your armor. This is why investors give startups millions of dollars over several years before they expect them to show their work to anyone.

I'm guessing almost everyone here was an avid reader growing up. I devoured a fantasy novel every single day for years. I couldn't tell you the names of the vast majority of books I read. I have no idea who the authors are.

But I remember Tad Williams. I remember Robert Jordan. I remember Michael Crichton. There was something different about their books, something that set them apart. My religion is all about identifying that something, then harnessing it.

If you want to break out you must master your craft, creating incredible stories readers absolutely love. The kind of books they will wait years for, just like they do for George R.R. Martin. Otherwise you are forgettable, and there is no worse fate.

*Thou Shalt Beta Test*

We all know how bad our first drafts are compared to a releasable product. Software works exactly the same way. You make a minimum viable product, then you show it to a handful of people.

You listen closely to their feedback and add or remove features accordingly. You show it to a larger group of people and see how they react, then iterate again. This process is repeated many times before you end up with a product worthy of The Almighty Brand.

Advocates of quick publishing iterate many times, often with disposable brand names. This allows them to learn while insulating them from the consequences of mistakes. I nearly took this approach for that very reason, but my time in software has taught me the value of user experience testing.

Releasing a product means immediate profit. It means seeing what things people will buy, but it doesn't necessarily tell you why they bought it. To understand that you need to ask the right questions, and measure the trends in a limited subgroup of customers.

In our case that means finding your potential audience and having them beta read your book. Not just one or two people, but twenty or thirty. It means asking meaningful questions about what worked for them and what didn't, then refining your product accordingly.

I re-wrote the first forty thousand works of No Such Thing As Werewolves almost from scratch after my first round of beta reading. My characters gained more definition, plot holes closed and my pace tightened.

Then I showed it to my writing coach, who tore apart my prose and pointed out the remaining flaws in the plot. I integrated her feedback, then showed the book to another crop of beta readers. They had a few last minute suggestions, but in general they loved it.

This process made me an immeasurably better writer, which made the first draft of the second book much stronger. I'm following the same process for that book now, and by the time I release it will be closer to mastery of my craft.

*If Thou be a Real Artist Thou Shalt Ship*

There is a point of diminishing returns, and many writers never release a product because they are forever tinkering in a vain quest for perfection. I don't think you should pump out unpolished products every month, but you DO need to put out products.

No Such Thing As Werewolves wasn't perfect when I released it. There were over 20 typos, and several inaccuracies about the military hardware (*cringes*). But that didn't matter. What did was reader reception.

Almost every beta reader and reviewer responded with one of two statements. Where is the next book, or I can't wait to see the movie. This is gold in the 10x World. It means you have a chance to breakout.

*Thou Shalt Iterate*

I aimed for a small initial test market. 10s of copies a day, not hundreds or thousands. I listened to what my audience is saying, and am making changes based on that feedback.

I hired a proofreader to give the manuscript another pass. I tightened my blurb. Very soon I'll be redoing my covers to be more uniform. The initial 2,000-3,000 people who bought my book will see a beta version of it.

The rest will see a polished uniformly branded product.

*My Plan for 2015*

In April when book 2 launches I will aim for my first Bookbub. I will market anywhere and everywhere to drive readers into my sales funnel, knowing that the product they are about to consume is the best one I could have produced.

I plan to stay agile, to adjust my strategy as often as necessary to make better products and to continue honing my craft until I am the type of writer that inspires fandom.

This means consistently releasing products. A novel every six months, something readers can depend on. If they like my novellas (The First Ark is doing well so far, but its too early to tell) then I will release one three months after every novel so something comes out every quarter.

Will that be enough to keep readers interested? If my stories are good enough, yes. If my user testing was accurate the books will spread, hopefully like wildfire.

I will help that along of course. As I've said elsewhere marketing is key. I need to get my books in front of people who will love them. That will be the topic of its own post, but many of the tools for doing this are things we're already familiar with. Boxed sets is a great example.

With every book I'll become a better writer and I will learn more about what my audience craves. In doing so I plan to redefine a currently underserved market.

Vampires have been huge for years. So have zombies. But there is a dearth of good werewolf books, and those that do exist take a completely different approach than I do. So I'm re-defining werewolves. Watch carefully what happens next Halloween. If I do my job right werewolves will be The Next Big Thing.

Am I both arrogant and ignorant for not releasing a short novella every month? Maybe. I'm gambling that my path leads to mastery of my craft and the existence of a strong brand marketed to a user tested audience.

It will be interesting looking back at this post in 6 or 12 months to see if I face plant like Blackberry or soar like Apple. In the mean time I'd love to answer questions and to hear about flaws in my plan.


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## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Chris Fox, we are of a similar mind on different coasts. I've rubbed elbows with computer visionaries from my years as a member of the Charleston SC Linux Users Group. It's a scary and thrilling crowd to hang out in. My favorite part of the VC or San Fran style of business is there's never the sentiment that it CAN'T be done, but just it HASN'T been done. . . yet. 

I married a lot of what you talk about with an efficient publishing schedule. And Blackberry didn't face plant exactly, they forgot to keep innovating. I think that's an apt metaphor for what might be happening now. There was always the murmurs about what were indies going to do when trad pub started pricing low, and I think that prediction is starting to arrive. One set says "then we must go lower!" and the other says "beat them at their own game." I'm in the last camp. 

And you may not realize it, but your plan of a novella every 3 months, novel every 6 IS publishing fast. It is faster than every trad pubbed author and faster than even most indies. It's not as fast as Grovnice or maybe my plans, but it's up there as far as release schedule goes. Conventional scheduling is ONE novel a year. That's it. One. And that's what many are talking about when they say writing just one novel a year hoping for it to break out is like taking just one swing when it was your turn to bat. 

Really great post, I like the 10x thinking. I will be off looking for some more material on that I can hack and co-opt into my plans.


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## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

Brilliant post! I'm going to savor it for a while and come back later.


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## Sever Bronny (May 13, 2013)

An awesome and inspiring read, Chris, thanks for taking the time to write it! Looking forward to seeing your plan come to fruition this year, man


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## cinisajoy (Mar 10, 2013)

Very inspiring.


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## Brevoort (Jan 27, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> I live in the land of Uber and Fitbit, where Apple is king and Google Glass is normal. Where Elon Musk holds court and billionaires seek the next Youtube.


You had me right at the first sentence and if you ever decide to write a motivational self-help book I will happily buy it. Just brilliant.


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## sela (Nov 2, 2014)

Great post -- lots to digest. 

I am not a techie but what strikes me is that the new world of publishing is now technology driven, in that e-publishing and e-commerce and e-readers have all shifted the industry and playing fields. This means that the approaches in the tech field might be quite suited to success in the new world of publishing. The internet, etailers like Amazon, Kindle and electronic book software changed a lot about the old system and it is slowly adapting. The entire industry is now much faster, bigger, and for authors, at least, requiring more of a business approach than before. Not everyone likes this new system or can work within it, but it is the new system. There are opportunities for those who can adapt. The old system is still in place, but eBooks have forced changes to their business models as well. 

A question authors have to face that they never did before is which approach do I take? Trade publishing or self publishing? Self-publishig was never a real viable option until very recently. The author has to ask, if I go self-publishing, how do I gain visibility and build a brand on my own? How do I get readers, and have a career, if that is what I want?

The new system also changes far more rapidly than the old system did because technology changes so fast. Just keeping up with Amazon algorithm changes requires being in touch with those who study these things and figuring out how to adapt. 

It's exhilarating and exciting and scary at the same time. 

Anyone who wants to, can publish their book and see it on Amazon or B&N or iBooks in 24 - 48 hours. Getting your book read is a whole other kettle of fish. I will watch your thread eagerly for your marketing tips, which is why I came to Kboards in the first place so consider me an eager reader of your posts.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Rad post.

By the way, the "publish 1+ shorter works every month" thing doesn't really apply to spec fic. I am absolutely positive there are exceptions, but if you go hang out on the SF/F/H bestseller lists, virtually every single title is novel-length, with the occasional novella from a trad bestseller mixed in there.

That means the pace of publication in spec fic is slightly less frantic. Slightly.


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## sela (Nov 2, 2014)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> Rad post.
> 
> By the way, the "publish 1+ shorter works every month" thing doesn't really apply to spec fic. I am absolutely positive there are exceptions, but if you go hang out on the SF/F/H bestseller lists, virtually every single title is novel-length, with the occasional novella from a trad bestseller mixed in there.
> 
> That means the pace of publication in spec fic is slightly less frantic. Slightly.


I think there is a market for short sf the way there is in no other genre besides erotica. So you could write a 10K SF short each couple of weeks and probably do quite well, maybe even expanding some to longer serials, the way Hugh Howey did with Wool. Short fiction was always a way to break in to publishing longer SF works and in fact was a strategy even the SF editors advocated to aspiring SF writers.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Sela said:


> I think there is a market for short sf the way there is in no other genre besides erotica. So you could write a 10K SF short each couple of weeks and probably do quite well, maybe even expanding some to longer serials, the way Hugh Howey did with Wool. Short fiction was always a way to break in to publishing longer SF works and in fact was a strategy even the SF editors advocated to aspiring SF writers.


I wish it were true, but I don't think it is. I just checked the top 100 SF titles on Amazon. Here is the list of books significantly shorter than 200 pages:

#1 - Animal Farm
#2 - A new installment from a sci-fi romance serial
#3 - A new novella in a very popular series by BV Larson (huge indie SF author)

That's it. I think the algos have changed significantly since Hugh and the SF serials of people like Sean Platt and David Wright. 2011 was a long time ago in ebook-years!


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## MyraScott (Jul 18, 2014)

Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine has been selling the world short works of SF fiction for more than 30 years. Clarkesworld is a respected SF & F magazine that's been around for 9 years now. 

I think there are definitely readers out there for short SF and F stories.


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## Avis Black (Jun 12, 2012)

I'd say an article by Forbes does a good job of laying out what doesn't work.  Forbes states that 8 out of 10 businesses will fail in the first 18 months.  The basic causes are:

1) You don't have a clue what your customers want.
2) Your product isn't any different from umpteen other products.
3) You fail to communicate why your product is worth buying.
4) The person in charge isn't any good at business and makes lousy decisions.
5) You fail to make money according to the revenue model you've set up.

A guy who used to assess business plans for potential bank loans once blogged that most of the plans he saw were obviously bad.  You had a lot of people who were in love with a lousy business idea, and they were too air-headed to be bothered with paperwork, accounting, or figuring out how to make enough money to sustain their business.


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## DawnLee (Aug 17, 2014)

Love it, Chris.  Thanks!


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## ericaroswell (Apr 17, 2014)

MyraScott said:


> Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine has been selling the world short works of SF fiction for more than 30 years. Clarkesworld is a respected SF & F magazine that's been around for 9 years now.
> 
> I think there are definitely readers out there for short SF and F stories.


I agree, MyraScott. The top sellers in Erotica are almost all novel-length and many are well-known names like EL Gray and Zane. But there is still a market for short erotica and many many authors make good money writing shorts.

At the same time I think OP's post is more for people who want to make the very topselling lists and be well-known in the field and innovative. That's different from publishing short erotica (and maybe short SF? I don't know), where it's about steady sales from frequent short publishing and there's not a lot of time to worry about perfecting the product or sending it to beta readers etc.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> I married a lot of what you talk about with an efficient publishing schedule. And Blackberry didn't face plant exactly, they forgot to keep innovating. I think that's an apt metaphor for what might be happening now. There was always the murmurs about what were indies going to do when trad pub started pricing low, and I think that prediction is starting to arrive. One set says "then we must go lower!" and the other says "beat them at their own game." I'm in the last camp.
> 
> And you may not realize it, but your plan of a novella every 3 months, novel every 6 IS publishing fast. It is faster than every trad pubbed author and faster than even most indies. It's not as fast as Grovnice or maybe my plans, but it's up there as far as release schedule goes. Conventional scheduling is ONE novel a year. That's it. One. And that's what many are talking about when they say writing just one novel a year hoping for it to break out is like taking just one swing when it was your turn to bat.
> 
> Really great post, I like the 10x thinking. I will be off looking for some more material on that I can hack and co-opt into my plans.


I completely agree about beating them at their own game. Indie authors can move faster than traditional publishing, which will continue to be a huge advantage. I'll be raising the prices on my books at the end of the month after the Christmas Kindle rush dies down. That sort of fine grain control is something a traditional publisher will never have.

I do agree that 2 novellas a 2 novels a year is fast. Even two novels is crazy fast to me, but then I ran into the authors here who say 7 months is an eternity in the current market. It's difficult for me to disagree, as I haven't been in indie publishing for 7 months yet 

Love that you're a tech geek too. You're also one of our most inspirational posters, so thank you for that.



Sever Bronny said:


> An awesome and inspiring read, Chris, thanks for taking the time to write it! Looking forward to seeing your plan come to fruition this year, man


You too Sever. It's been amazing watching us both launch at the same time. 2015 is going to be a good year for us and a lot of fellow authors on Kboards =)



Sela said:


> The new system also changes far more rapidly than the old system did because technology changes so fast. Just keeping up with Amazon algorithm changes requires being in touch with those who study these things and figuring out how to adapt.
> 
> Anyone who wants to, can publish their book and see it on Amazon or B&N or iBooks in 24 - 48 hours. Getting your book read is a whole other kettle of fish. I will watch your thread eagerly for your marketing tips, which is why I came to Kboards in the first place so consider me an eager reader of your posts.


A thousand times this. Our entire world has been redefined by the internet, and we're in the bronze age of computing. In ten years four billion people will be online. Dominating a very tiny niche (like werewolves) can net you hundreds of thousands of sales over a several year period. Maybe more if you have a hit on your hands. We're at a unique stage where indies finally have the advantage. We can experiment daily with keywords until we find a set that works.

Traditional publishers can't do that. They can't alter their blurb or throw up a new cover or fix typos. They can't rebrand or even add a link to their mailing list in the back matter. We can do all that and more, and authors who capitalize on that are already making money hand over fist. Those who think long term will profit from it. You just have to find your 1,000 fans, which leads us back to marketing.

I'll be making a separate post on that later this week, but I've got word quotas to hit =p

As a teaser I will say this. Find the authors who already have the success you're looking for, and see what they're doing. Then find the readers you think will market your book, and make sure they know it exists. In my case there are werewolf forums all over the internet, and most are starving for decent fiction in a genre they're incredibly passionate about. Some have already discovered my book and I get to lurk with a huge grin while they discuss my book.

Others don't know about it, so I contribute to the forums and bring up the book if and when it's relevant.


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## 75845 (Jan 1, 1970)

Chris Fox said:


> Traditional publishers can't do that. They can't alter their blurb or throw up a new cover or fix typos. They can't rebrand or even add a link to their mailing list in the back matter.


They do all that and more and anything that indies are doing that would aid their business plan they will adopt as they have done with BookBub adverts. Your claim is up their with your claim that Blackberry fell flat on their face, just because they are not from California does not mean that they were not once the business. Saying that Blackberry fell on their face while Apple succeeded is like saying that Lotus 123 failed while Excel succeeded or Wordperfect failed while Word succeeded. If you want to use tech examples try to get your history right, if you want to comment on mainstream publishing try to get their business practices right.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

ericaroswell said:


> I agree, MyraScott. The top sellers in Erotica are almost all novel-length and many are well-known names like EL Gray and Zane. But there is still a market for short erotica and many many authors make good money writing shorts.
> 
> At the same time I think OP's post is more for people who want to make the very topselling lists and be well-known in the field and innovative. That's different from publishing short erotica (and maybe short SF? I don't know), where it's about steady sales from frequent short publishing and there's not a lot of time to worry about perfecting the product or sending it to beta readers etc.


Almost all top-selling erotica is novel-length? I don't spend much time watching the erotica bestseller lists. But right now, 44 of the top 100 titles listed in erotica are under 200 pages long. 43 of those 44 titles are under 162 pages. Most of those are under 120 pages, including a good number between 25-40 pages. One was as short as 10 pages.

I don't mean to derail the topic, but the SF/F/H ebook market is completely different when it comes to short works. There have been a lot of good advice threads lately about how to succeed, but in my observation, the advice in those threads about writing novellas and shorts does not apply to SF/F.

Let me put it in less forceful terms -- if you're writing spec fic, and thinking about going short (and I got a bit of this from Chris' post), please take a long, long look at the bestseller lists of the subgenre you're writing in. And count up how many of those top-selling titles are shorter than novel-length.


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## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

Avis Black said:


> 2) Your product isn't any different from umpteen other products.


To me, this is a critical factor and is why we _should_ be studying the most successful authors. When I think of all the writers I follow, the authors whose releases I never miss, they all have one thing in common--they wrote stories I'll never forget. They didn't just blend in with all the other novels in their genre, and because of that, I will remember them whether they publish every six months or they wait two years.

That's my goal--to write stories people won't forget.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Mercia McMahon said:


> They do all that and more and anything that indies are doing that would aid their business plan they will adopt as they have done with BookBub adverts. Your claim is up their with your claim that Blackberry fell flat on their face, just because they are not from California does not mean that they were not once the business. Saying that Blackberry fell on their face while Apple succeeded is like saying that Lotus 123 failed while Excel succeeded or Wordperfect failed while Word succeeded. If you want to use tech examples try to get your history right, if you want to comment on mainstream publishing try to get their business practices right.


You honestly believe traditional publishers play with keywords, blurbs and covers on a regular basis? Seriously? My copy of Jurassic Park is riddled with typos, because they simply scanned the book, dumped it on Amazon and left it. If they aren't going to polish a book like that what makes you think they'll do it for a mid-lister? And are you speaking from experience? Do you have books with traditional publishers? If not, where are you getting your data?

I do have my history right. What was Blackberry's share of the market in 2006? What is it today? What was Apple's in 2006? What is it now? Apple out innovated Blackberry, and Blackberry lost a huge swathe of market share, first to Apple and then to Samsung. This is an indisputable fact. What that has to do with a three decade old spreadsheet program or a word processor that didn't use a mouse I'm not sure.

I'm not meaning to be rude, but I've been in the tech industry for 20 years. I know my history well, because I lived a lot of it.



vlmain said:


> That's my goal--to write stories people won't forget.


Mine too. If we can do that we've got readers for life.


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## A.A (Mar 30, 2012)

I looove reading about startups and Silicon Valley and venture capital.

I have a big plan for my series - something that hasn't been done before - but I'm not confident enough to try a kickstarter or anything for it. I also had it written into my publishing contract that I can do this. But I'll have to wait until I make enough to get it happening 

So, if I'm to understand your post correctly, your big, overarching plan (that is different to what everyone else is doing) is make yourself the go-to author for werewolf lit and to make werewolf lit hugely popular in time for Halloween? Will be interested to see how you make that happen


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## cinisajoy (Mar 10, 2013)

I want to know if flowers in your hair are still required. 
He gave me an earworm.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

A.A said:


> So, if I'm to understand your post correctly, your big, overarching plan (that is different to what everyone else is doing) is make yourself the go-to author for werewolf lit and to make werewolf lit hugely popular in time for Halloween? Will be interested to see how you make that happen


That's it exactly. Create a demand for werewolf fiction around Halloween, and have products available to fill that demand. Not just products, but products people will love and tell their friends about. Products that have a chance to break out.

There are many steps to creating demand, but one of the most important will be creating a multi-author 'scary' werewolf box set. I've already approached a few authors, and have spotted a few more here that I haven't approached yet. I'm reading Domino Finn's Seventh Sons right now, and will be moving on to Stone Soldiers. I'll do the same for each author I'm considering to see if they're a good fit, and if they are I'll invite them to join.

I've watched other box sets and seen the effect they can have for every author involved. Look at the Epic Fantasy Box Set of bad*ssness (totally a real word) that just came out. It has a few Kboards authors, and there are all one lists with Stephen King and Dean Koontz. Many of them are ahead of one or the other. All I have to do is adjust the tone of the boxset to fit my market, and I have a chance at similar success.

If I drop this box set on October 1st and every author markets their ass off we can spread this to every corner of the internet. I'm planning on releasing book 3 on the same day, and will be using the mailing list and social media to hype that at the same time. I have a much more specific plan for where and how I'm marketing, but in a nutshell I'm gathering a list of forums, reviewers and book sites. We'll also all be posting reviews for werewolf movies, interviewing each other and trying to land spots on some of the larger podcasts.

My strategy will definitely evolve closer to release, but the goal is unchanged. Find as many eyes that would enjoy the books as possible, and make them a 'no duh' offer. The resulting traffic should catapult us to the top of every werewolf list and search on the internet, or damn close at least. Just in time for Halloween.



A.A said:


> I looove reading about startups and Silicon Valley and venture capital.
> 
> I have a big plan for my series - something that hasn't been done before - but I'm not confident enough to try a kickstarter or anything for it. I also had it written into my publishing contract that I can do this. But I'll have to wait until I make enough to get it happening


 Me too! It's surreal to be a part of the startup world and to see so many movers and shakers (I try not to get stepped on). My favorite moment was when they presented Bill Nye as our surprise lunch speaker at WWDC last year. Talk about awesome.

I really think you should try your Kickstarter this year. Find other authors who've done one and see how they approached it. I bet there are probably people here who've done one and would love to help.


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## NoCat (Aug 5, 2010)

I'm in a very successful epic fantasy box set. It has had... no effect on my sales. Some effect on my author rank on Amazon, but I was already top 20 in my genres and it just shoved me up a few places. Box sets are fun and can be awesome when done well, but I value it more for the mailing list sign-ups and having more visibility than any of kind of sell-through. When they do well, they can also be a nice source of bonus income, too.


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## Sylvia R. Frost (Jan 8, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> You honestly believe traditional publishers play with keywords, blurbs and covers on a regular basis? Seriously? My copy of Jurassic Park is riddled with typos, because they simply scanned the book, dumped it on Amazon and left it. If they aren't going to polish a book like that what makes you think they'll do it for a mid-lister? And are you speaking from experience? Do you have books with traditional publishers? If not, where are you getting your data?
> 
> I do have my history right. What was Blackberry's share of the market in 2006? What is it today? What was Apple's in 2006? What is it now? Apple out innovated Blackberry, and Blackberry lost a huge swathe of market share, first to Apple and then to Samsung. This is an indisputable fact. What that has to do with a three decade old spreadsheet program or a word processor that didn't use a mouse I'm not sure.
> 
> ...


I think you should write about Silicon Valley. Thrillers, maybe or maybe just a memoir. It's a hot topic. It's still relatively underserved. And you KNOW IT. (and are clearly passionate about it.) I think that could be your break-out genre-creating hit. *two cents* Much less crowded than werewolves.

And this is coming from someone who does werewolves, but is jumping off the werewolf train for her next book. (Staying with shifters though.)


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## Jenny Schwartz (Mar 4, 2011)

Really interesting post.

I'm curious if the next thing from boxed sets is authors banding together to create a new shared name and publish under it. Say four authors, one name, a new novel every two months.

But then, how does this help their individual brands?


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## Crystal_ (Aug 13, 2014)

Being innovative and genre breaking is NOT a good strategy for sales. It requires you to become a best seller to succeed. There are way fewer best sellers than mid listers. You're way better off writing something closer to a genre.

I wish it weren't so. Something in me demands to be different. I hear everyone likes billionaires; I want my hero to be impoverished. Etc. Etc. Etc.


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## M_A_Alonso (Nov 20, 2014)

A very interesting topic and lots of info here to digest. Thank you all for sharing your knowledge.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

No Cat said:


> I'm in a very successful epic fantasy box set. It has had... no effect on my sales. Some effect on my author rank on Amazon, but I was already top 20 in my genres and it just shoved me up a few places. Box sets are fun and can be awesome when done well, but I value it more for the mailing list sign-ups and having more visibility than any of kind of sell-through. When they do well, they can also be a nice source of bonus income, too.


This kind of experience is invaluable, thank you for sharing. Sounds like I should dial back expectations about the kind of traffic a box set can drive. Still worth doing, but maybe not as primary marketing.



Sylvia R. Frost said:


> I think you should write about Silicon Valley. Thrillers, maybe or maybe just a memoir. It's a hot topic. It's still relatively underserved. And you KNOW IT. (and are clearly passionate about it.) I think that could be your break-out genre-creating hit. *two cents* Much less crowded than werewolves.
> 
> And this is coming from someone who does werewolves, but is jumping off the werewolf train for her next book. (Staying with shifters though.)


This is brilliant. I'd never even considered this, but am now sketching out how I can add Silicon Valley to the first book in my next trilogy. Thank you!



Crystal_ said:


> Being innovative and genre breaking is NOT a good strategy for sales. It requires you to become a best seller to succeed. There are way fewer best sellers than mid listers. You're way better off writing something closer to a genre.
> 
> I wish it weren't so. Something in me demands to be different. I hear everyone likes billionaires; I want my hero to be impoverished. Etc. Etc. Etc.


I completely agree and warned about this in the intro to my post. If your goal is to make a successful living then by all means write to market. If your goal is to break out and you have the luxury of not needing the immediate income, then the risk is worth it for some of us.

For the record my genre breaking book is selling extremely well, especially on audio. There is quite literally nothing like it out there (as you'll see if you peek at the reviews), and people are eating it up. Was that the smartest road to success? Nah. I could have written a BBW shifter romance that probably would have sold six or seven times as many copies.

I didn't both because I like what I'm writing, and because I'm not risk adverse. Your mileage may vary.


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## anniejocoby (Aug 11, 2013)

Crystal_ said:


> Being innovative and genre breaking is NOT a good strategy for sales. It requires you to become a best seller to succeed. There are way fewer best sellers than mid listers. You're way better off writing something closer to a genre.
> 
> I wish it weren't so. Something in me demands to be different. I hear everyone likes billionaires; I want my hero to be impoverished. Etc. Etc. Etc.


Take it from me, you don't want to write about an impoverished hero, LOL. Been there, done that, not doing it again.


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## sela (Nov 2, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> If your goal is to make a successful living then by all means write to market. If your goal is to break out and you have the luxury of not needing the immediate income, then the risk is worth it for some of us.
> 
> For the record my genre breaking book is selling extremely well, especially on audio. There is quite literally nothing like it out there (as you'll see if you peek at the reviews), and people are eating it up. Was that the smartest road to success? Nah. I could have written a BBW shifter romance that probably would have sold six or seven times as many copies.
> 
> I didn't both because I like what I'm writing, and because I'm not risk adverse. Your mileage may vary.


I completely agree with you on this. A writer should know what their goals are and act accordingly.

Success in publishing can come in several ways:

1. You can write a book that won't sell a lot but will give you the satisfaction of having written it. You've seen your vision to print and have found readers -- not enough to live off, nor breakout fame, but you have had your creative moment. It's an accomplishment even if it isn't a huge success. If people buy your book, read it and love it, you have succeeded where millions have failed. There are millions and millions of people who dream of writing a book, who write bits and pieces of books and never finish them, and who finish them but they never sell. To have finished a book that is your vision, to have it published and sell and have people read it and respond positively is a great life accomplishment. This is entirely doable today with self-publishing in a way it wasn't only five years or ten years ago. There is no one standing in your way of doing this today. No gatekeeper other than your own skill, talent, and perseverance. It's still almost impossible to have your book be successful as most are not read or reviewed or purchased. But it's even more possible now than ever before.

2. You can want a full-time career as a writer, which is one step removed from crazy, given how hard it is to get a book read, but it's still doable. It takes skill at writing, smarts for understanding the market and what readers want, and it takes good business sense. Authors who want this kind of success are wise to write in volume and to the market. This doesn't mean cranking out scamlets or getting on a treadmill of writing material you hate. It means making choices about genre and studying what people who read that genre are buying and then getting a book out in fast order. Trends last for quite a while so it's entirely possible to write a book and hit the trend and sell books, as long as you have the skills, can write fast and have knowledge about how to get it read. You may write books that sell well, rank well in their genres, and produce a steady stream of income that you can live off. One of your books might even break out of the pack, if you can find a story that is different enough that people talk about it even more than normal. It is less risky than the third approach, which you are following, but it can still happen.

3. Finally, there's your approach. You want to be the next Dan Brown or Steven King or EL James, but of werewolf thrillers. To do this takes the most crazy, as in risk taking and betting your wad on your own skill and business acumen. If you already have a great job and have the time to devote to writing, you can, if you have lots of business smarts, market smarts, have a brilliant idea and can write a page turning book, afford great covers, blurbs and marketing for release, break out of the pack right off the starting line and make a killing.

So it really does all depend on what a writer wants and how much risk they are willing to take. I applaud you for having a huge goal like this. You may fail spectacularly but that's probably one of the best ways to succeed spectacularly as well.


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## Someone (Dec 30, 2011)

For some reason I thought you wanted to completely limit yourself to werewolves. If not, then I can't express how much I agree with this:


> I think you should write about Silicon Valley. Thrillers, maybe or maybe just a memoir. It's a hot topic. It's still relatively underserved. And you KNOW IT. (and are clearly passionate about it.) I think that could be your break-out genre-creating hit. *two cents* Much less crowded than werewolves.


The right book with the right amount of Silicon Valley...
Ohh yeah.


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## vlmain (Aug 10, 2011)

Someone said:


> For some reason I thought you wanted to completely limit yourself to werewolves. If not, then I can't express how much I agree with this:The right book with the right amount of Silicon Valley...
> Ohh yeah.


I would read that. Not a fan of Werewolves, but a Silicon Valley thriller--I'd be all over that!


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Someone said:


> For some reason I thought you wanted to completely limit yourself to werewolves. If not, then I can't express how much I agree with this:The right book with the right amount of Silicon Valley...
> Ohh yeah.


Not at all! Werewolves are the first stop, but I'll be moving in a different direction with my second trilogy. It really sounds like Silicon Valley thriller is an underserved market, and I'm in a good position to capitalize on it. That may be my next project after I finish the current trilogy, as I think I could work it into my next project very easily.

I plan to keep putting out great stories until I find something that really resonates with readers. My existing trilogy has 12 books plotted out, but because I'm breaking them into groups of three they don't all need to be written at once. I did that both because I think readers are more attracted to completed works (like a trilogy with all books out), and because it would allow me to take breaks to work on other projects without upsetting readers.


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## notquitejoyce (Nov 3, 2014)

Hey Chris, great post (found it through your podcast interview with Simon Whistler).

I have somewhat of a similar background (I was involved in .coms in Boston a few years back and am still involved in software and digital products) and love that you're planning your sales and marketing strategy out as far as October already (and probably beyond) in addition to the 10x Thinking strategies.

I think one point that keeps getting missed, glossed over, ignored or seen as some sort of shady/seedy activity is that to become a best selling author one needs to sell the damn book! (or books  )

The few authors I know who create and execute coherent and consistent marketing plans massively outsell the vast majority of authors who don't do any marketing - foolishly believing that the books should sell themselves or that Amazon should do it for them.  The latter group's  common response to the question of how do you sell more books seems to be just write another book :-/

And it doesn't seem to matter if it's the latest Billionaire PNR Shifter Motorcycle Pack trope or break out books like yours, those who take responsibility for controlling, or at least positively influencing, their sales prosper. Those who don't take this step, don't.

As writing business owner (as opposed to just thinking like an author who writes books) your comments on the podcast (600 person street team vs 60, 50,000 books a month rather than 5K books) really forced me to question the assumptions and goals I had set. Thanks for that!!

I'm in the process of revisiting my 2015 plan and adding a zero wherever I can to see where the ("How the hell do I do that?") questions take me.

Inspirational stuff.

Damian,

p.s. Just started the audio version of the book - great story and great production values.


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## johnlmonk (Jul 24, 2013)

Chris, I heard you on Simon's show -- very cool man!  Grats on the audiobook success.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

notquitejoyce said:


> Hey Chris, great post (found it through your podcast interview with Simon Whistler).
> 
> I have somewhat of a similar background (I was involved in .coms in Boston a few years back and am still involved in software and digital products) and love that you're planning your sales and marketing strategy out as far as October already (and probably beyond) in addition to the 10x Thinking strategies.
> 
> ...


Thanks, Joyce! RSP taught me most of what I know about indie publishing, so it was surreal being on the show. Love that work in Boston, the east coast mirror for San Francisco!

I agree, marketing is critical. Understanding market saturation and how to go wide are key in continuously moving your book. I've started adding marketing posts here to share my thoughts on that. Just put up the first one a couple days back.

Thanks for picking up the book! I'd love to hear what you think when you're done.



johnlmonk said:


> Chris, I heard you on Simon's show -- very cool man! Grats on the audiobook success.


Thanks, John! I'm blown away by the audiobook success. I'm on track to clear a thousand copies in the first four weeks, and it seems to be gaining steam daily. I really lucked out with the narrator. Ryan is amazing.


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## jamespalmer (Jan 10, 2011)

Great advice! It's always a good idea to take things that work in another field or industry and apply it to indie publishing.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

*************


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Phoenix, you're probably right about box sets and you aren't the only person on this thread to share that sentiment. I'll still do one, but I've dialed down my expectations there.

I've already started testing several other strategies, and they look promising. I found a community of role-players who love werewolves, and have gained a great deal of traction. Many have already finished the book and are sharing it with others.

The whole point of 10x thinking is to try a lot of ideas, a shotgun approach if you will. Many will fail. Some will enjoy mild success. But one or two could be wildly successful, and it's those that propel you to the next level. 

Anyway, thank you for the reality check. My strategy is always a work in progress. I have to stay agile.


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## J.A. Cipriano (May 27, 2014)

I'm probably a bit late to the party, but I just listened to your podcast on Rocking Self publishing and found this post. It's incredibly inspirational.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Thanks, J.A. I love Simon's show and it was such a privilege to be on. I've done a few podcasts since, and am finding I really enjoy it.


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## Mark E. Cooper (May 29, 2011)

anniejocoby said:


> Take it from me, you don't want to write about an impoverished hero, LOL. Been there, done that, not doing it again.


Ah... point of order your honour! What about an impoverished hero, who finds the pot of gold/lottery ticket/robs a bank because he can teleport (ALA Jumper) etc?


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## Annabel Chant (Feb 24, 2015)

I'm definitely with Sylvia on this...you could write a fantastic series, based on your 'religion', maybe even turning into a kind of fantasy world (to be honest, as a UK writer - it sounds pretty much like one, but maybe I'm just a bit innocent, lol). It certainly seems where your passion lies, and you seem to have a firm hold on how it works  
ETA: it was actually the first thing that crossed my mind as I read it.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Thanks, Annabel. I've written the first draft of my Silicon Valley book, it's entitled Project Solaris (see the cover in my blurb). 

Alpha readers love the startup part of it, especially seeing how companies and politics work in the valley. I had to add in super heroes and aliens though, so it ended up more sci-fi than I was expecting. It still reads pretty well and I think there's a market =)


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## Annabel Chant (Feb 24, 2015)

I think that would just make it more interesting, to be honest, which was why I mentioned making it a fantasy series (or scifi, obviously). It sounds like it'll be fab. You sound as if you really understand the driving forces behind it, which makes all the difference. Wishing you all the best with it


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## Cherise (May 13, 2012)

Terrific thread! Quoting Sela for truth, because it is hard enough to get anywhere as it is, let alone if you don't know where you're going!



Sela said:


> A writer should know what their goals are and act accordingly. Success in publishing can come in several ways:
> 
> 1. You can write a book that won't sell a lot but will give you the satisfaction of having written it. You've seen your vision to print and have found readers -- not enough to live off, nor breakout fame, but you have had your creative moment. It's an accomplishment even if it isn't a huge success. If people buy your book, read it and love it, you have succeeded where millions have failed. There are millions and millions of people who dream of writing a book, who write bits and pieces of books and never finish them, and who finish them but they never sell. To have finished a book that is your vision, to have it published and sell and have people read it and respond positively is a great life accomplishment. This is entirely doable today with self-publishing in a way it wasn't only five years or ten years ago. There is no one standing in your way of doing this today. No gatekeeper other than your own skill, talent, and perseverance. It's still almost impossible to have your book be successful as most are not read or reviewed or purchased. But it's even more possible now than ever before.
> 
> ...


I want newbies to realize, too, that they are not limited to 1, 2, or 3. They can shoot for 'all of the above.' That's what pen names are for!


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## AssanaBanana (Feb 1, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> You honestly believe traditional publishers play with keywords, blurbs and covers on a regular basis?


Ugh, no. I have one trad-pubbed novel and WISH I could update the keywords because I could do so much better than the publisher did. I hate the blurb, too. The cover's pretty, but does NOT fit with subcategory the book is listed in (it's a romantic suspense featuring LA street gangs and the cover is very clean-looking, nowhere near gritty enough). I signed the contract a year ago, though, right before I learned how to do it all myself. If I'd known then what I know now - well, there would be no contract and I'd be finishing that series rather than sitting on it waiting out that contract and publishing under an entirely different pen name.

Back to the main topic, my first thought was "Does this leave any room for creativity?" Maybe and maybe not, but this part kinda addressed that:



Chris Fox said:


> *If Thou be a Real Artist Thou Shalt Ship*
> 
> There is a point of diminishing returns, and many writers never release a product because they are forever tinkering in a vain quest for perfection. I don't think you should pump out unpolished products every month, but you DO need to put out products.
> 
> ...


If you're like me, it's hard to wrap your head around this entrepreneurial mindset. I really just want to write - I have fun with the creative process. I doubt most creative individuals would START with a methodology like this, but once you decide you want to indie publish and manage to figure out how the pieces fit together, it's a good one to follow. One thing I like to tell my writing crit group is that you have to learn how to let your piglets go because what really sells is the sausage.


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## Shei Darksbane (Jan 31, 2015)

Thank you for sharing this Chris Fox!

I needed this post today. 
Been a low day for me and I am trying to convince myself that I'm not crazy, that my writing CAN and WILL succeed, that my story IS good... And that I can dream big and get away with it.

Thanks so much for this post today. Again, I needed it so much.


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## Sever Bronny (May 13, 2013)

Arshness said:


> Thank you for sharing this Chris Fox!
> 
> I needed this post today.
> Been a low day for me and I am trying to convince myself that I'm not crazy, that my writing CAN and WILL succeed, that my story IS good... And that I can dream big and get away with it.
> ...


"Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success." --Dale Carnegie.

You hang in there, Arsh


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## Jim Johnson (Jan 4, 2011)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> Rad post.
> 
> By the way, the "publish 1+ shorter works every month" thing doesn't really apply to spec fic. I am absolutely positive there are exceptions, but if you go hang out on the SF/F/H bestseller lists, virtually every single title is novel-length, with the occasional novella from a trad bestseller mixed in there.
> 
> That means the pace of publication in spec fic is slightly less frantic. Slightly.


You don't have to be in the top 100 sff lists to be making good money, whether you write serials or standalones or whatever. The top lists might be dominated by novel-lengths, but there's plenty of room elsewhere on the subcat lists for books of many lengths. That being said, I took a quick glance at this list at random, and see that there are a lot of short series books in the top 100. No idea what those authors are making from looking at the list, though.


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## Guest (Mar 19, 2015)

Just some quick questions on Your Plan for 2015 + some thoughts after that

I plan to stay agile, to adjust my strategy as often as necessary to make better products and to continue honing my craft until I am the type of writer that inspires fandom. 

1) What exactly does this mean? How can you be agile with books. Do you mean you'll treat your books like software and keep iterating the actual book, or do you mean the strategy?

This means consistently releasing products. A novel every six months, something readers can depend on. If they like my novellas (The First Ark is doing well so far, but its too early to tell) then I will release one three months after every novel so something comes out every quarter.

2) How do you get the time for this? How much time do you devote to writing?

Will that be enough to keep readers interested? If my stories are good enough, yes. If my user testing was accurate the books will spread, hopefully like wildfire.

3) How do you do user testing?

I will help that along of course. As I've said elsewhere marketing is key. I need to get my books in front of people who will love them. That will be the topic of its own post, but many of the tools for doing this are things we're already familiar with. Boxed sets is a great example.

4) Boxed Sets are not as effective now. What comes next? Any ideas?

With every book I'll become a better writer and I will learn more about what my audience craves. In doing so I plan to redefine a currently underserved market.
Vampires have been huge for years. So have zombies. But there is a dearth of good werewolf books, and those that do exist take a completely different approach than I do. So I'm re-defining werewolves. Watch carefully what happens next Halloween. If I do my job right werewolves will be The Next Big Thing. 

* This is a very interesting idea. How do you know it's underserved Versus just small?
Also, you should consider the size of the markets by comparing things like movies, etc. too. Is it a very big marketing (werewolves)? Or is it a small market compared to Zombies and Vampires. I watch a lot of movies and werewolves just aren't that big in movies.


Am I both arrogant and ignorant for not releasing a short novella every month? Maybe. I'm gambling that my path leads to mastery of my craft and the existence of a strong brand marketed to a user tested audience.

* This is very tough. What is 'your path'? How do you define 'mastery of your craft'. How long will it take? 10,000 hours? 10 years? a lifetime?


It will be interesting looking back at this post in 6 or 12 months to see if I face plant like Blackberry or soar like Apple. In the mean time I'd love to answer questions and to hear about flaws in my plan.

* Blackberry was at one time the big hot thing. As was Motrola with Razr or Nokia. Products have cyclical lifecyles.
What exactly is your aim? No one can be at the top forever? What level do you want to reach? For how long? For forever? How is that possible?

*******

Thoughts

1) 10 times thinking is good.

2) Some startup methodology applies to indie publishing, some doesn't. You have to be careful - while there are a lot of lessons, you can't apply things without considering the book market as it stands today and as it's evolving.

3) Boxed Sets will become less effective as more people start doing them. So figuring out what comes next is the winning strategy. What can give you the edge in 2015 that boxed sets gave authors in 2013? or free gave authors in 2011 and 2012?

4) Why not 100X thinking?

5) Creating Blue Oceans - new product areas - is tougher. However, it leads to HUGE rewards. Plus most people aren't doing it. Defining your own genre has the benefit that YOU OWN IT. If it becomes big you'll have an early mover advantage over everyone else.

6) Existing Markets have the benefit of proven market demand. However, they are very competitive.
Be first, be the best, or have the most money.

Be First is out in an existing market.
Be the Best is the only realistic option for indies.
Have the most money is out.
Leaves the possibility of creating an entirely new approach or product as a NEW entryway into an existing genre. Like Serials. However, those are getting overplayed too.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

It's interesting seeing this thread resurface after a couple months, because I've learned and done a lot in the interim. First and foremost let me say that my strategy has been very successful. No Such Thing As Werewolves stayed in the top #10k books for the first four months, and while the inevitable slide has begun on Amazon it's still selling amazingly well on Audible.

I've made enough that I am now not only in the black, but have paid for all cover, advertising and audiobook production this year. Everything I make for the rest of the year will be pure profit, and I will release three full length novels this year instead of the two I originally planned.

The third novel (seen in my sig) is Project Solaris, and as I mentioned above came about as a result of this thread. It ties in to my Deathless series, and will hopefully share some readership.

*3) Boxed Sets will become less effective as more people start doing them. So figuring out what comes next is the winning strategy. What can give you the edge in 2015 that boxed sets gave authors in 2013? or free gave authors in 2011 and 2012?*

I landed in a box set with the largest name in my genre, and they're doing all the work. Part of the reason box sets are losing effectiveness is that people are adding too many books. Almost no reader will open a box set with sixteen books and browse to a specific book. They'll buy it because it seems like a good deal, then never open it because they have no idea where to start.

Smaller box sets will be effective, though not as effective as in years past. Now that I've taken care of that angle I've moved on to others. My next idea is to leverage my sphere of influence in the startup world to see if I can get celebrity endorsements. I'm working on getting my book on Elon Musk's desk, plus a bunch of less famous luminaries. This won't be possible until I release Project Solaris in July.

If I want to achieve the kind of success I'm looking for that means massive visibility, and the best way to attain that is to gain access to existing audiences.

*4) Why not 100X thinking?*

This comment suggests you'd fit in well in Silicon Valley. Why not 100x? Because the idea is to 10x every iteration. That means you'll 100x on the second one, but first you have to succeed at the 10x. This allows you to hit a still crazy but more achievable milestone.

** This is very tough. What is 'your path'? How do you define 'mastery of your craft'. How long will it take? 10,000 hours? 10 years? a lifetime?*

My path evolves over time, and I will never master my craft. It's always a state of constant improvement. I'll be better after 10,000 hours, and still better after 50,000 hours. I think this is true for all artists, and for all entrepreneurs.

** Blackberry was at one time the big hot thing. As was Motrola with Razr or Nokia. Products have cyclical lifecyles.*

Those who latched onto one specific tech example are missing the point. Those who do not iterate die, and that's exactly what happened to Blackberry, Razr and Nokia. Like you said no one is on top forever, and you stay there longer by constantly evolving.

** This is a very interesting idea. How do you know it's underserved Versus just small?*

Market testing. If I mention a book idea to fifty different people and the majority react with 'wow, that's awesome' then I'm onto something. If most are meh about it then it's a small market. The Silicon Valley thriller idea has resonated with every single person I've told about it.



Sever Bronny said:


> "Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success." --Dale Carnegie.
> 
> You hang in there, Arsh


Love this quote, Sever. Arsh, I'll echo Sever. Hang in there. You will get that novel out there. Stick with it!


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## DGAllen (Mar 11, 2014)

Thanks for the post, Chris.

Glad to hear your interview on Rocking Self-Publishing while restarting my morning jog.

Why not 100X? Good question.

I think 10X is the magic number to start.

Why?

When I think 100X or 1000X, I come up with solutions that require tools and situations I don't necessarily have.

10X, however, is just big enough to intimidate, yet just small enough to still be reachable from the starting point of where you are. Plus, doing 10X twice - that IS 100X. That's how exponents work.

The other cool thing about 10X, as opposed to 2 or 3X, is that it's big enough to inspire a different level of thinking than 'Just do double what you did before' or 'work harder'. You actually gotta do something different, or apply a more effective leverage of your time and the platforms you work on. 

Plus, 10X is two-syllables, which makes it super easy to say. I'm a fan of easy-to-pronounce things.

Glad I listened to you.

-D


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## Guest (Mar 27, 2015)

1) Interesting thoughts on 10X vs 100X.

100X works better for me. Of course, if you're already big then 10X might be just as out of the box as 100X.

2) 10,000.

It takes 10,000 hours to master a craft.
It then takes 10,000 hours to create your first masterpiece. The first time you show your mastery of craft.

After that you can do it faster. Those first two 10,000 hour stretches are very important though.

3) Market testing can only be done by launching. What you mention is just guesswork. The more books you ship the higher the chance of success, provided you keeping improving based on feedback.

I've found that asking people about ideas is dangerous because it gives the perception you are testing product market fit, but you aren't. You're testing people's reactions.


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## crow.bar.beer (Oct 20, 2014)

ireaderreview said:


> It takes 10,000 hours to master a craft.
> It then takes 10,000 hours to create your first masterpiece. The first time you show your mastery of craft.


The whole "_10,000 hours to master a craft_" concept has been debunked. I mean, it probably should've been clear to everyone from the start that it was completely arbitrary (define "master" and "craft" in each instance - and still 10,000 hours every time huh? ), but analysis of a great number of studies on deliberate practice has revealed that it isn't largely responsible at all for the actual quality or results of the performance of the skill in question.

The more you utilize a skill the better the chances probably are that you improve your abilities with that skill (albeit not necessarily), but the idea that "the first time" one demonstrates mastery of a craft is after crossing a goalpost of a certain amount of hours spent exercising that craft is absolutely ludicrous.


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## CoraBuhlert (Aug 7, 2011)

Chris Fox said:


> My next idea is to leverage my sphere of influence in the startup world to see if I can get celebrity endorsements. I'm working on getting my book on Elon Musk's desk, plus a bunch of less famous luminaries. This won't be possible until I release Project Solaris in July.


Did you know that Musk's ex-wife is a writer?


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

CoraBuhlert said:


> Did you know that Musk's ex-wife is a writer?


I did! I also know that Elon is an avid reader. Hopefully dropping a Silicon Valley sci-fi thriller on his desk will pique his interest!



Sweet Amber said:


> The whole "_10,000 hours to master a craft_" concept has been debunked. I mean, it probably should've been clear to everyone from the start that it was completely arbitrary (define "master" and "craft" in each instance - and still 10,000 hours every time huh? ), but analysis of a great number of studies on deliberate practice has revealed that it isn't largely responsible at all for the actual quality or results of the performance of the skill in question.


The 10k number is totally arbitrary and I think most people understand that number varies from person to person. One person might take 4k hours to achieve the same mastery someone else achieves in 12k. The idea is solid though. Only through a massive amount of deliberate practice can you achieve mastery. This is true even of prodigies like Mozart. I highly recommend both The Talent Code and Talent is Overrated for people curious about the subject.



DGAllen said:


> Thanks for the post, Chris.
> 
> Glad I listened to you.
> 
> -D


Thanks for listening, D!


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## crow.bar.beer (Oct 20, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> Only through a massive amount of deliberate practice can you achieve mastery.


Quantity is one thing but _quality_ is quite another, and then there's the question of innate abilities in how the brain functions and how wildly this can differ between individuals. One person could achieve the same masterful results in relatively little time, compared to what would constitute "massive" amounts for someone else. I'm all for promoting the notion that it's important to work hard and keep at it when it comes to developing capacity for a certain skill, but when it comes to making projections regarding what's required in order for it to happen I start to balk.


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## Chris Fox (Oct 3, 2014)

Sweet Amber said:


> Quantity is one thing but _quality_ is quite another, and then there's the question of innate abilities in how the brain functions and how wildly this can differ between individuals. One person could achieve the same masterful results in relatively little time, compared to what would constitute "massive" amounts for someone else. I'm all for promoting the notion that it's important to work hard and keep at it when it comes to developing capacity for a certain skill, but when it comes to making projections regarding what's required in order for it to happen I start to balk.


This is why I use the term deliberate practice, as defined in Talent is Overrated. You can keep doing the same thing for thousands of hours and never learn past a certain point. It takes very specific practice to achieve mastery.

As far as a relatively short time, I disagree. Even Mozart put in 10 hours a day for five years before composing his first symphony. Tiger Woods started when he was two years old and has practiced daily ever since. If you want to achieve true mastery it will take you a LOT of time to get there. Talent matters a lot less than most people believe. I realize that's a controversial take, but the books I mentioned explain the reasons for my viewpoint in depth =)


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## crow.bar.beer (Oct 20, 2014)

Chris Fox said:


> This is why I use the term deliberate practice, as defined in Talent is Overrated. You can keep doing the same thing for thousands of hours and never learn past a certain point. It takes very specific practice to achieve mastery.


"Deliberate" simply refers to intent, and not the actual quality of the practice. Although I think we're saying the same thing, now that it's more clear the context in which you're using the phrase. Nonetheless, it still remains that the actual quantity of the practice can even be statistically irrelevant in certain cases, and not determinate in the rest, either, as far as empirical data has demonstrated.



> As far as a relatively short time, I disagree. Even Mozart put in 10 hours a day for five years before composing his first symphony.


Yet there are plenty of people who have also exercised the same sets of skills for the same amount of time and never attain the same level of success, of musical genius, so what would constitute a "massive" amount of deliberate practice for one individual would indeed be a relatively short time for someone who excels with much greater proficiency.


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## Guest (Mar 28, 2015)

Regarding this:

The more you utilize a skill the better the chances probably are that you improve your abilities with that skill (albeit not necessarily), but the idea that "the first time" one demonstrates mastery of a craft is after crossing a goalpost of a certain amount of hours spent exercising that craft is absolutely ludicrous

*******

Let's not get caught up in attacking the concept. 

Just replace 10,000 hours with 'your Inflection point' or 'the threshold point at which you become an expert.

So,

1) It's going to take you a very large number of hours of deliberate practice to reach your inflection point. At that stage you're a master of your craft. Master = one of the best in the world.

2) It's going to take you around the same number of hours of deliberate work on your masterpieces before you create your first full masterpiece. At that stage you've demonstrated master of your craft. Mastery = created a masterpiece that's one of the best in the world.

It's because of the way humans evolved (always out-thinking each other, always testing their wits) that there will naturally be opposition to this idea. The minute it starts becoming popular some people will argue it.

However, across the people I've known who are world class - haven't met anyone who got to mastery in less than 10,000 hours or the equivalent time in years (generally assumed to be 10 years). Of course, it's just a handful of people, so there may be cases who supposedly got these in 3,000 hours. However, the whole point of the books referenced is that it just doesn't happen. apart from a few statistical anomalies, most people only become great after a great deal of hard work (deliberate practice).

It's true for writing too. I don't see very many 25 year olds winning Nobel Prizes in Literature (or any other area, for that matter).


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