# Bad news for Select: Amazon changed their algorithms



## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

We already knew Amazon changed how the popularity lists work on March 19. Well, with a lot of help, I finally have an idea how those lists work--or at least a close approximation of what we were seeing. Yesterday, I posted about those changes to my blog.

Funny thing, that. Mere hours after I posted that, Amazon changed their algorithms again.

But it turns out the newest list is based on one of the March 19 lists. The good news is, we've already got a pretty good handle on how it works. The bad news is, it doesn't look good for Select.

Those posts are really long and I hate driving traffic off-site, so I'll try to summarize. Basically, after six weeks of running three concurrent lists, Amazon's switched back to a single popularity list. (These aren't the bestseller lists; they're the lists you'll be directed to while browsing around the Kindle store.) Your placement on the new list is determined largely by how many books you've sold over the last 30 days. It isn't weighted towards the most recent days, it's an average of the last month. And freebies only count towards these ranks at a fractional rate. As far as I can tell, for the purposes of pop list rank--which, for the record, is completely different from your sales rank--freebies count for something like 10-20% of a sale. In other words, for every 5-10 books you give away free, your pop list rank will be credited with 1 sale. And I think it's closer to a 10% rate than 20%.

In brief, what this means is that giving away a ton of free books will no longer result in an automatic bump in sales afterwards. That bump came from Amazon dumping you at the top of the pop lists after you gave away several thousand copies. If you're no longer at the top of the pop list--and unless you're in a very small category, or gave away a monstrous amount, you won't be--your book won't be seen. If your book won't be seen, your book won't be bought. No buys, no bump.

Let me throw out some caveats here. I could be wrong about some or all of this. I know this doesn't describe the new pop lists completely; the only changes I'm talking about are the ones that are specifically relevant to Select. Also, they could add more perks to Select, or change the algorithms again tomorrow to make Select better than ever. Amazon is an ever-changing beast.

For now, though, I think we'll see a big change going forward. My main strategy over the last three months has been using free runs to pull sales afterwards. I don't think that's going to work any more. I think giveaways can still be part of an effective sales strategy, but we're going to have to come up with a more involved plan than "Make book free, cackle all the way to the bank."


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## MonkeyScribe (Jan 27, 2011)




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## lorelei (Feb 25, 2012)

Thanks for posting this, Edward. It must have been a lot of work, figuring all this out. The news is kind of disappointing, though. I guess we'll all have to consider getting out of Select.


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## Romi (Apr 4, 2011)

MichaelWallace said:


>


Hahaha...love the imagery  . My final free run after I yank my butt out of Select is in the 2nd week of June, but since I'm only doing that because my sequel comes out on the same day, it's more about converting downloaders into as many people as possible who decide to actually read my free book, and then, if they like it, purchase the sequel after. I'm not sure Amazon can algorithm me into oblivion in that sense, but...anything is possible 

PS: thanks for all the analysis Edward!


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## Lisa Scott (Apr 4, 2011)

Thanks for that info.  I guess the only good thing that remains about going free is finding new readers.  I've seen several reviews in the different books I've given away free, where the reader says they got my book as a freebie and bought the rest.  But what a bummer that the post freebie bounce is gone.


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## Guest (May 4, 2012)

I shudder to think what marvelous fiction you might write if you applied all this dilligence to a novel.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

lorelei said:


> Thanks for posting this, Edward. It must have been a lot of work, figuring all this out. The news is kind of disappointing, though. I guess we'll all have to consider getting out of Select.


It was a lot of work, lol. Fortunately I had a lot of help.

I think it's too early to make any rash decisions about Select. I'm not even 100% positive the post-free bump is dead. We'll have to hear from people who go free from this point on. But everything we've seen in these changes (which we've been observing in the Mega-Thread since March 19) points to its elimination. If so, that's going to factor in to how I think about Select.


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## scottmarlowe (Apr 22, 2010)

Thanks for doing the detective work (you and the Eye, that is).

This definitely changes my Select perspective. Need time to mull this all over now.


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## Elizabeth Ann West (Jul 11, 2011)

Select is one big experiment still for everyone involved, including Amazon.

I'm interested to see what the borrow rate is for April. That will be VERY telling. So far, the whispers are that a) readers aren't signing up in mass numbers for Prime and that b) the free books aren't being "borrowed."

I think there is a problem for Amazon when there's too much volatility to their various lists of books to buy. When books like mine were able to shoot to the top, be on the top of the popularity lists and then plummet back down in obscurity... that's a great deal of unpredictability for their business. And it's not as a simple as saying "They're still selling books, why do they care?"

They do. Ofcourse they do. Because who gets knocked down so I go up? Exactly. Authors with many more books who sell on a consistent basis without Amazon's mojo and magic. Authors who if they decided their sales on Amazon were too disrupted by KDP Select, might look into an exclusive distribution deal with someone else for their next book... or publishers who Amazon needs to negotiate another contract with for distribution rates might not feel that they need Amazon quite as much as Amazon needs them when they're seeing their books fall off the best seller lists.

It was easy back in December and January to say "Oh the Christmas rush...." but we're way past that now. I think the plan all along was that the BORROWS would be the big draw for KDP Select, not making it on the popularity or bestseller lists. IN fact, the original "pitch" was all about that pool of money and how publishers could make MORE than a sale with a borrow (that didn't happen unless you're a $.99 book at least not the first few months)." 

We are one teeny-tiny puzzle piece in the big Amazon picture. KDP Select an even smaller piece. Our freak out over the algorithms is just business as usual for them. When KDP authors outsell the traditional publishers, THEN, THEN we'll be on the radar in regards to the algorithms and how they treat us.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> the only changes I'm talking about are the ones that are specifically relevant to Select.


Elaborate? Other than the list from which people choose borrows, what lists would be Select lists?


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## Jeremy Brown (Apr 9, 2012)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> Select is one big experiment still for everyone involved, including Amazon.
> 
> I'm interested to see what the borrow rate is for April. That will be VERY telling. So far, the whispers are that a) readers aren't signing up in mass numbers for Prime and that b) the free books aren't being "borrowed."
> 
> ...


Thanks to Edward for putting this together, and to Elizabeth for a great dose of wisdom.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Terrence OBrien said:


> Elaborate? Other than the list from which people choose borrows, what lists would be Select lists?


Sorry, don't mean to imply there are Select-specific lists. That was just my overly cautious way of saying I don't understand everything about the algorithms. All I'm looking at is Select--specifically, freebies and their interaction with the popularity lists.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

Oh, Ed, you're all doom and gloom here. There IS a bright spot in all this IF you happen to fall into the sector of folk using Select in one of its various incarnations: for borrows only. The KOLL list appears to be culled directly from the popularity list; it just excises the non-Prime books. That means for authors with books that are selling well and selling consistently who don't go free and who are in Select mainly for the borrow perk, their books won't be pushed so easily off the front pages of the KOLL by those upstart freebookers. In fact, if you're a borrows-onlyer with books in the 10K and better rankings range, your books may have sneaked up a few pages in the KOLL since the beginning of the month .

_Full disclosure: I have been that upstart freebooker. No smileys for my strategies today. My cackle, too, has been silenced._

Lots of testing still to do and one or two promising (though not necessarily in a good-for-Select way) hypotheses still to corroborate. In a couple of days the outlook as Ed and The Avengers know it could look better. Or bleaker.

Keep in mind the algos and the resultant list could be looking a whole lot worse right now given the scenarios Amazon was playing with. Best thing everyone can do for now: continue posting RESULTS in the megathread. How many freebies did you give away? How many sales did you have post-free? Where did you rank in the Pop list on each day post-free? Data over the next couple of weeks will be extremely valuable. Yes, even YOU can contribute something of value to the war -- er, data mining -- effort. Let's get out there and all do our part!


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## Guest (May 4, 2012)

interesting. Thank you.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Phoenix Sullivan said:


> Keep in mind the algos and the resultant list could be looking a whole lot worse right now given the scenarios Amazon was playing with. Best thing everyone can do for now: continue posting RESULTS in the megathread. How many freebies did you give away? How many sales did you have post-free? Where did you rank in the Pop list on each day post-free? Data over the next couple of weeks will be extremely valuable. Yes, even YOU can contribute something of value to the war -- er, data mining -- effort. Let's get out there and all do our part!


Good points up and down, Phoenix. I knew there was a reason I started stalking your posts. 

So, right. Please, more posts to the Mega-Thread. That data was critical to working all this out and could be just as critical in figuring out where to go from here.


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## balaspa (Dec 27, 2009)

The whole Select thing has been a disaster for me from the start.  So, I am glad to no longer be a part of it.


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## MH Sargent (Apr 8, 2010)

Thanks for sharing your hard work, Edward. I went free with one book in mid-March and got a huge bounce for a couple of weeks. Just amazing. If you are right, this will certainly have many authors re-thinking about Select.


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## AmberC (Mar 28, 2012)

ugh.


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## theaatkinson (Sep 22, 2010)

I went free on Mar 19 and had a terrible sales bump afterwards. It was only weeks later that I realized the algorithms had changed on that very day, and that only from these boards.

Priceless info here


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## ETS PRESS (Nov 4, 2011)

Phoenix Sullivan said:


> Oh, Ed, you're all doom and gloom here. There IS a bright spot in all this IF you happen to fall into the sector of folk using Select in one of its various incarnations: for borrows only. The KOLL list appears to be culled directly from the popularity list; it just excises the non-Prime books. That means for authors with books that are selling well and selling consistently who don't go free and who are in Select mainly for the borrow perk, their books won't be pushed so easily off the front pages of the KOLL by those upstart freebookers. In fact, if you're a borrows-onlyer with books in the 10K and better rankings range, your books may have sneaked up a few pages in the KOLL since the beginning of the month .
> 
> _Full disclosure: I have been that upstart freebooker. No smileys for my strategies today. My cackle, too, has been silenced._
> 
> ...


What is the "Pop list" and where is it?


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## Amanda Charvi (Jan 4, 2012)

Thanks MichaelWallace and genevieveaclark, those pics actually made me LOL.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

ETS PRESS said:


> What is the "Pop list" and where is it?


The "Popularity list" is the default list that you're presented with when you browse "Books" on your Kindle or when you go into the Kindle store and just start browsing through the ebook categories: http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-eBooks/b/ref=sv_kstore_2?ie=UTF8&node=1286228011.

(The "sort by" default choice is "popularity;" hence the Pop list, for short.)


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Amanda Charvi said:


> Thanks MichaelWallace and genevieveaclark, those pics actually made me LOL.


Hahah, that instantly made me feel better, too. Just goes to show there's nothing explosions can't solve.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

I believe the 10% ratio. When I came back on the paid list after my last free run all it did was mess up my also boughts to people outside of genre. I should have had enough sales (including my history) to slide in to the top 10K, bit that didn't happen. I instantly realized they weren't weighting free dl's like sales. Borrows fell off too. 

I'll be pulling my book out of select (at least the first in my series) I may put my flash fiction one in, but my novels I'll be pursuing multiple venues instead.


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## Sullins (Jan 2, 2012)

I just finished a two day freebie at midnight. My book is nonfiction, self-help. I average 600-700 downloads with no promotions. This time I got 257 downloads and my book got as high as #5 in its category. Less than 24 hours since my freebie closed and my book is not in the top 100 anymore. 

My last freebie, was April 3. My book shot up to number 5 then too. It was immediately out of the top 100 at the end of the day. I got maybe 3 sales off of it and no borrows. 

I'll be lucky to get that many this time. Amazon has definitely changed the algorithms. Select will not provide the bump in sales anymore after a free run. Sounds like it's time to leave Select.


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## Sullins (Jan 2, 2012)

I should add that I do a lot of promoting on other forums, facebook, my blog, etc. My sales have definitely slowed as a result of the change with Amazon. Sadly.


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## Rachel Schurig (Apr 9, 2011)

Hmm, very interesting. Thank you for all your date sifting, it's very appreciated.

I had two awesome free runs in January and March. I was thinking I would start my new release out with a few free days to get a bit of a momentum push this coming week. Now I'm having second thoughts...


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## MGalloway (Jun 21, 2011)

Thanks for the insights/research, Ed. It's another set of factors to take into consideration for book releases down the road.

I've run four books through Select, and only have one in there right now. Unless something else changes, that one might be the last. I think I'm going to focus on increasing the breadth of distribution now.


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## Mike McIntyre (Jan 19, 2011)

Edward,
Flippin' fantastic work! You and Phoenix are Kindle Boards' Watson and Crick and deserve a Nobel Prize for figuring out the DNA of Select.


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## DRMarvello (Dec 3, 2011)

Well, darn. Just last week, I let my book continue on in KDP Select, thinking that this round, I really would muster to go free.

Now I'm not sure what to do. From a sales standpoint, I really have nothing to lose. However, I hate the idea of dorking up what few decent "also boughts" I currently have. I don't have any books to cross-sell yet. (I'm working on that.) So, if I don't get a sales boost on my one title from going free, I also have nothing to gain!

Now I wish I had dropped out of Select and given the book more exposure in other venues like I originally planned.

Thanks for your investigations, Edward. You may have saved me from giving away books for nothing.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

I confirms what I've been thinking for some time. Leaving Select looks like the best course for me when this enrollment is over. Amazon may decide that Select was not a winning strategy for them. That really seems to be the way they are edging. They're an innovative company and they have had Select out long enough to start making that decision. There is the fact that if they make it unpopular with authors, we'll scream less if they pull the program, not that I think our screaming would change anything, but we are to some degree a company asset.

Anyway, that's too bad, but no surprise. Thanks for doing the work to put that together.


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

I'd love to comment on this, but I have to run around my house, tearing out my hair.  

There's one reason I want Select to work for me: so I don't have to deal with Smashwords distribution. I'm Canadian so I can't PubIt.


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## Dana Taylor (Jan 8, 2010)

Hi--

It really is helpful to see what everyone is experiencing. The only book of mine that is selling is the one I did NOT put into Select. This is a result of  Daily Cheap Read feature a couple of weeks ago, but that bump has lasted, while the last freebie offer flamed out quickly. Plus, I was shocked to get $127 royalties from Smashwords for the quarter. So, I guess it's time to decide which ones stay and which ones go.

Also, it seems like nobody is getting much in the way of customer reviews from all these freebies. I have a sense that everyone is downloading and nobody is reading.

Thanks for your information!

Dana Taylor


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## TaraWest (Jul 9, 2011)

I did the old-fashioned version of Select by making the first book in my series permanently free. It's done a fine job driving sales to the other two books. I did Select under another penname and didn't do too badly this March, but sales could have been better. I think I got about 160 paid sales after my Select days last month and almost 40 so far this month. Considering the book made it to the top 33 free overall Kindle store, I guess I was expecting enough sales to make my mortgage. LOL.


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## kcochran (Apr 30, 2012)

What? I missed the express train to sales? I was just gearing up to do my first promo. Please say it isn't so.... 

Hmmm, so now that someone has broken the code, how do we fix it?  Do we create an Indie Author Union and go on strike?


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## Matthew Lee Adams (Feb 19, 2012)

Ah - that explains a lot 

I'd been having steady sales the first two months - and then March 19 - Poof!

I shall have to kickstart them once more, now that the algos have been sorted out


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## herocious (May 20, 2011)

Finding all of this very engaging. Thanks for the analysis. It's all relevant to me, particularly now since one of my books (Austin Nights) just enjoyed a huge bump after yesterday's promotion.

After 3500 download the book is now sitting at #7 on the Bargain Books list.

Not sure how it got there, but it's being consumed consistently at the moment. Would sure love to figure out how to stay there.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

herocious said:


> Finding all of this very engaging. Thanks for the analysis. It's all relevant to me, particularly now since one of my books (Austin Nights) just enjoyed a huge bump after yesterday's promotion.
> 
> After 3500 download the book is now sitting at #7 on the Bargain Books list.
> 
> Not sure how it got there, but it's being consumed consistently at the moment. Would sure love to figure out how to stay there.


Now that's interesting. I'm not suggesting there's a direct link here, but that's one area this analysis completely neglects--whether Amazon did anything to compensate free runs in other ways. That's something we'll have to watch out for in the free runs of the next few weeks.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

D. said:


> I'd love to comment on this, but I have to run around my house, tearing out my hair.
> 
> I'm Canadian so I can't PubIt.


Wait...Nook discriminates against Canucks? Just doesn't seem right.


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## AmberC (Mar 28, 2012)

I honestly didn't know there was a "bargain books" list and I download and buy books daily. Is that new or have I just missed it? :/


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## KindleNooker (Apr 22, 2011)

Grrrr.  I was wondering what the heck was going on last month with sales.  I just set about 15 books to free for yesterday and today -- I guess I won't be reaping many benefits post free.  This sucks!

I just went through all of my books -- 30+ now, and unchecked the renewal box for select thanks to this thread.  They are mostly up in June and July, but I have time to plan my next move.  Which may be Smashwords.  

I guess this is a prime "who moved my cheese?" example.


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## Eric C (Aug 3, 2009)

I gave away roughly 10,000 freebies on the 29th and 30th on the Amazon US site, enough to bounce the book in the paid rankings down to about 1,400. On the first day back in paid, got 94 sales at $3.99 a pop, second day started off fine, another 13 sales in the morning, and then ... ran into a virtual brick wall. Two sales the rest of the day, a total of two sales the following day, even though the book spent that day ranked in the 4,000s. All I can say is WTF? (On the upside, 22 borrows over the same period.)


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## 39179 (Mar 16, 2011)

Yep, it seems like the party is over - at least, for now.

Pretty soon I'll be picking out my BN.com gift and hoping they like it.


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## Miriam Minger (Nov 27, 2010)

Lisa Scott said:


> Thanks for that info. I guess the only good thing that remains about going free is finding new readers. I've seen several reviews in the different books I've given away free, where the reader says they got my book as a freebie and bought the rest. But what a bummer that the post freebie bounce is gone.


It's an ever-changing universe though, so let's not lose hope. Onward ever...

Miriam Minger


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## 39179 (Mar 16, 2011)

Miriam Minger said:


> It's an ever-changing universe though, so let's not lose hope. Onward ever...
> 
> Miriam Minger


Well said, Miriam!


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## JFHilborne (Jan 22, 2011)

Thanks for all the posts and info here. I'm releasing my 3rd book next month - the first one I'm releasing myself as the other 2 are trad-pubbed, and I had fully intended to go Select until I read this thread. I've watched a couple of books in the top 100 stay there after consistent and recent freebie promos, so I'll be monitoring them more closely to see if they drop off.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Miriam Minger said:


> It's an ever-changing universe though, so let's not lose hope. Onward ever...
> 
> Miriam Minger


We had successes before Select. We'll have them after (or whatever). Things change and we just have to adjust our strategies.


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## 39179 (Mar 16, 2011)

JRTomlin said:


> We had successes before Select. We'll have them after (or whatever). Things change and we just have to adjust our strategies.


And keep our cool. And not panic. And remember that life, yes "life" is bigger than this. And yes, even bigger than Amazon.

Oh, my.


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## Steverino (Jan 5, 2011)

Thanks, Edward.  You data crunchers rock.  Where would we be without you?  Dumb, that's where.

(I finally got a title into Select on April 5.  Gah.)


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

JRTomlin said:


> We had successes before Select. We'll have them after (or whatever). Things change and we just have to adjust our strategies.


You're right. I just wish we didn't have to so freaking often. It's like trying to herd cats.


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## ETS PRESS (Nov 4, 2011)

I've read countless posts by people who discuss how sales have dropped and select isn't working like it did before. I've tried to make this point before, but it's generally ignored: Select was introduced in December, the climax month of sales. January and February had good follow through for many people, then all of the "sales have dropped and select sucks" posts began. Hmmm... could it possibly be the time of year? Is it possible the sales drop is natural? Did everyone expect to strike gold over and over again -even during the dry months? I honestly don't think we can truly compare results until we have something to compare it to -like this year to last year. 

Example: My sales on TPT are beginning to drop. I fully expect them to drop off the face of the Earth in June, however, I have comparisons now, so I know that this quarter is the shorter end of the sales stick, BUT my sales are HIGHER this year than last year. And they were higher last year than they were the year before. It's a waste of my time to compare this month to August (the climax month of sales on TPT). Of course my sales are lower right now. 

There is simply not enough true data (based on time) to draw conclusions about select (IMHO).


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## Emma Daniels (Jan 21, 2011)

Has anyone analysed UK's algorythms? Becasue for some reason I am selling more there after a free run than in the US store. Have done so the past two times I had a book free. And one of them is still selling reasonably well over a week after coming off free, whereas in the US I might get one or two days of a very small bump in sales, if I have given away enough books, that is. I am talking about 30 books sold in a day in the UK compared to 5 in the US. Has anyone else experienced better returns in the UK than the US?


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## Lexi Revellian (May 31, 2010)

Emma Daniels said:


> Has anyone analysed UK's algorythms? Becasue for some reason I am selling more there after a free run than in the US store. Have done so the past two times I had a book free. And one of them is still selling reasonably well over a week after coming off free, whereas in the US I might get one or two days of a very small bump in sales, if I have given away enough books, that is. I am talking about 30 books sold in a day in the UK compared to 5 in the US. Has anyone else experienced better returns in the UK than the US?


Yes, I get that feeling as well from my latest promo, though I haven't done the sums yet. The also boughts in the UK don't seem to have changed as they have in the US - maybe that's it, or part of it? But I wish we had borrows in the UK.

Lexi


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## Adam Pepper (May 28, 2011)

ETS PRESS said:


> I've read countless posts by people who discuss how sales have dropped and select isn't working like it did before. I've tried to make this point before, but it's generally ignored: Select was introduced in December, the climax month of sales. January and February had good follow through for many people, then all of the "sales have dropped and select sucks" posts began. Hmmm... could it possibly be the time of year?
> 
> There is simply not enough true data (based on time) to draw conclusions about select (IMHO).


No one's ignoring you. We just think you're wrong. And our opinion is based on scads of data (which you're disregarding) whereas youre just tossing out a theory based on supposition.


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## ETS PRESS (Nov 4, 2011)

Adam Pepper said:


> No one's ignoring you. We just think you're wrong. And our opinion is based on scads of data (which you're disregarding) whereas youre just tossing out a theory based on supposition.


I'm not disregarding the data, but I don't think the sky is falling, and I believe the jury is still out and the fat lady has yet to sing. YOU may not agree with me, and that's okay. _I'm looking at all of this from a different angle._ And a theory is just that -a _theory_ (unproven). I wonder how all of this will look this time next year? I don't think this program has been in place long enough for us to have a true perspective on it. In all of the data, I've yet to see anyone consider the time of year and the natural ebb and flow of sales. I have three years of data for ebook sales on another site, so I know there are trends of ups and downs throughout a year. I never said any of the data presented here is wrong. I'm only pointing out another variable in the data -time (which is a point you're disregarding). You're drawing a hypothetical conclusion based on current data, but there are other variables to consider here (and some of those variables are completely unknown to us).

Perhaps someone here thinks I might have a point.


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## Adam Pepper (May 28, 2011)

You are ignoring the data because you keep throwing out other suppositions rather than conceeding that the changes to select are as simple as "amazon's programmers made changes to the system." which is what all the data seems to be screaming in no uncertain terms.


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## scottmarlowe (Apr 22, 2010)

If nothing else, Amazon is making a good case against exclusivity. Why stay exclusive if the benefits aren't there?


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## Sara Fawkes (Apr 22, 2012)

I entered my first story in Select on April 18 and ran my first promo on April 28 and 29, on a weekend. My book did well out the gate, the rank averaging 12-13k pre-promo, then in the two days I had 2,222 downloads across all the different countries (1,808 in US alone). I came out of free on Monday at 25k rank and by the end of the day my rank was back at 12k, but I began noticing the Alsobots were calibrating to include me. Since the first of the month, I've had 378 sales and 19 borrows on the one book and shot to #1 in Erotica Hot New Releases and #19-20 on the bestseller list, yet am only inching up the Popularity charts (yesterday was #77, today #71). 

So yeah, I think while the Select promo definitely worked for me in getting me on Alsobots, the two days of "no sales" worked against me for Popularity. It'll be interesting to see my progression up the Popular list with the latest algorithm settings, I'll try to keep you all posted here what I find out.


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## ETS PRESS (Nov 4, 2011)

Adam Pepper said:


> You are ignoring the data because you keep throwing out other suppositions rather than conceeding that the changes to select are as simple as "amazon's programmers made changes to the system." which is what all the data seems to be screaming in no uncertain terms.


Every time I turn around there is another thread that Amazon changed the algorithms _again_ or made changes to the system. Why should I concede that the data is set in stone and a sure deal when it's based on an unreliable variable? Next month, Amazon might tweak things again in Select's favor. We simply don't know what they are doing or why they are doing it. It's all smoke and mirrors. How is it that pointing out other possible variables makes me wrong and you right? I'm not sure I understand the logic of your argument. The OP's information is certainly interesting, and possibly is the foreshadowing of things to come, but it's only a theory at this point. It's not proven fact. It's quite possible the picture will look very different a year from now. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. It seems to me this is a case of seeing the glass as half empty versus half full.


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## Zander Schloss (Sep 4, 2011)

I'd like to thank Ed (especially) and all of the other participants in this discussion for their contributions. This analysis and conversation, even when perspectives differ, is precisely the reason I check in on KB every day. Without this communal sharing and discussion, I don't think much of what we do would be fun or rewarding at all.

Thank you!


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## Ross Harrison (May 5, 2012)

This doesn't sound too good for me. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding. I just published my first book on tuesday, and enrolled in KDP Select. After some issues with it being stuck in 'publishing' and not enrolling in Select, it is now mostly working 100%, and should be there to borrow. However, it is, as I said, brand new - this sounds like I have even more work cut out for me to get it borrowed than I would have before (not that I ever expected it to be easy  ).


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

ETS PRESS said:


> Every time I turn around there is another thread that Amazon changed the algorithms _again_ or made changes to the system. Why should I concede that the data is set in stone and a sure deal when it's based on an unreliable variable? Next month, Amazon might tweak things again in Select's favor. We simply don't know what they are doing or why they are doing it. It's all smoke and mirrors. How is it that pointing out other possible variables makes me wrong and you right? I'm not sure I understand the logic of your argument. The OP's information is certainly interesting, and possibly is the foreshadowing of things to come, but it's only a theory at this point. It's not proven fact. It's quite possible the picture will look very different a year from now. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. It seems to me this is a case of seeing the glass as half empty versus half full.


This _is_ a really good point. The algorithms have changed twice in the last six weeks. Amazon's not dumb. If they want Select to succeed, and they make a change only to see people leaving the program in droves after poor results, they'll adapt again. They're a big company, and I'm certain Select isn't as important to them as the overall health of their ebook wing, but I have no doubt things will change again before long. Maybe for the better.

I've got four books in Select right now and these changes won't actually be impacting my short-term plans. I'm going to let two books expire, but I was already planning to do that, because they weren't performing even under the most favorable conditions. The other two, I'll be leaving in--one, because I don't think it's yet seen all the benefit Select can give it, and the other, because I'll have a sequel within the next three month and Select is part of my strategy for it.

My goal isn't to incite a stampede. It's to give people a heads up. Everyone's response to this should be different, because everyone's books face their own unique conditions. But those conditions just changed, because Amazon just changed. I'm certain they'll change again. I'm hoping this info helps in the meantime.


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## Adam Pepper (May 28, 2011)

ETS PRESS said:


> Every time I turn around there is another thread that Amazon changed the algorithms _again_ or made changes to the system. Why should I concede that the data is set in stone and a sure deal when it's based on an unreliable variable? Next month, Amazon might tweak things again in Select's favor. We simply don't know what they are doing or why they are doing it. It's all smoke and mirrors. How is it that pointing out other possible variables makes me wrong and you right? I'm not sure I understand the logic of your argument. The OP's information is certainly interesting, and possibly is the foreshadowing of things to come, but it's only a theory at this point. It's not proven fact. It's quite possible the picture will look very different a year from now. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. It seems to me this is a case of seeing the glass as half empty versus half full.


I haven't seen anyone try and predict the future or make blanket proclamations. We are just gathering as much factual data as possible.


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## Mel Comley (Oct 13, 2010)

Ross Harrison said:


> This doesn't sound too good for me. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding. I just published my first book on tuesday, and enrolled in KDP Select. After some issues with it being stuck in 'publishing' and not enrolling in Select, it is now mostly working 100%, and should be there to borrow. However, it is, as I said, brand new - this sounds like I have even more work cut out for me to get it borrowed than I would have before (not that I ever expected it to be easy  ).


You tend to get more borrows AFTER your book has been free. Plus your book needs some reviews before people will choose it (genuine reviews, not one from great aunt Anna!) 

Good luck.

Thanks Ed for the wonderful post.


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## Ross Harrison (May 5, 2012)

Mel Comley said:


> You tend to get more borrows AFTER your book has been free. Plus your book needs some reviews before people will choose it (genuine reviews, not one from great aunt Anna!)
> 
> Good luck.
> 
> Thanks Ed for the wonderful post.


Well good news! My great aunt is Effie  Although I rather suspect she's dead.

I'm just worried about making my book free and no one noticing! It needs some exposure in order for people to even see that it's free and download. I suppose the first book is the learning book though, I never expected this one to make me my millions. That's book 2.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

ETS PRESS said:


> In all of the data, I've yet to see anyone consider the time of year and the natural ebb and flow of sales. I have three years of data for ebook sales on another site, so I know there are trends of ups and downs throughout a year. I never said any of the data presented here is wrong. I'm only pointing out another variable in the data -time (which is a point you're disregarding). You're drawing a hypothetical conclusion based on current data, but there are other variables to consider here (and some of those variables are completely unknown to us).
> 
> Perhaps someone here thinks I might have a point.


Sales is a complex beast, and there are MANY variables that go into the equation. I'm one of the data geekers, yet just last week (before the newest list changes) I put up a post that reminded folk that the Amazon algorithms are not the only part of the sales equation: http://phoenixsullivan.blogspot.com/2012/04/dwindling-sales-and-free-is-for-losers.html

All these variables have to be looked at individually across genre, across countries and across author brands to arrive at the sales equation for any one book -- to determine why Book A is selling and Book B isn't, for example.

The data being examined here is one variable to plug into the equation. Yet by tweaking just one thing in the equation, the results can vary drastically. Change 1 teaspoon of salt to 2 tablespoons in a recipe and you can wind up with something practically inedible.

No data exists in a void. That's the maxim I always preach, especially when presenting data like Ed's done. Whatever the equation for YOUR Select book is, the variable that is discoverability on Amazon now has to change.

Perhaps in January, the post-Christmas season accounted for an extra 30% of sales. That means that now you'll need to factor the seasonal variability at 0.7 and the new discoverability at, say, 0.2, or 20% of what it was in January. (These made-up figures are for illustrative purposes only!) For every 100 books sold in a post-free bump in January, just changing seasons means you'll sell 70 books in May. And changing the discoverability variable brings that number down to just 14.

But ALL the variables have to be taken into account to adjust expectations month-on-month and year-on-year. If you didn't do any promo in January and you sold 100 books, then using the 30% sales drop to adjust for seasonality in May means you can expect to sell 70 books in May without doing any promo. But if you take out ads and give away thousands of books and still sell just 70 books in May, then you can't simply accept the results as seasonal variability and believe your promotional efforts did OK. They did squat, and you need to be able to see that they did squat so you can do something different in June.

This new algorithm adjustment gives an idea about how sales expectations need to change. Changing this one variable by itself is certain to decrease the number of sales from what a book could have been expected to get in April, which already was down considerably because of activities on Amazon's part from January. Our job as author/publisher is now to see what other variables in the sales equation we can tweak to negate, or at least minimize, this new downward adjustment that's just been thrown at us. And, yes, we'll likely need to change our thinking on that variable again in another couple of months. But if Select is a tool you use, it MUST be figured in; it can't simply be ignored...


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## Sara Fawkes (Apr 22, 2012)

I always love it when Ms. Sullivan posts.

Some people do very well with Select but it seems almost a crapshoot as to why. There are things that can make your ride go smoother (get out the word of your Select days, try not to do too many in a row or promo sets in rapid succcession, etc) but what works for one may not work for another. I'm doing decently well so far but know it could go rapidly downhill with just one algo change, or one bad review, etc. This business is about change and assigning blame to the distributor, while helping us feel better, won't help us sell any more books.

Figuring it out and adapting will help. Hopefully the data on here and other threads will help us all get a handle on things.


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## AmberC (Mar 28, 2012)

I hope Tiffany comes back and posts. Both her books are still in the top 100 paid. Well over a week after her free run. Obviously it worked really well for her. I'd love to have a bit of her data.


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## Jeff Shelby (Oct 2, 2011)

Ed - thanks for doing the heavy lifting here.  I've been trying to figure all of this out for weeks, but I suck at research and math, so...  And thanks to Phoenix and Elizabeth for their insights, too.

My question - and I'm not posing it really expecting any of us has the answer - is why.  I'm trying to step into Amazon's shoes and think from their side as to why this makes sense for Amazon and how it benefits them.  Because in my head it seems that it ultimately leads to fewer sales, which means less revenue for Amazon.  And yeah I get that KDP is a small drop in the bucket as far as revenue goes for Amazon so I'm not suggesting that it really hurts Amazon in the big picture - but I can't figure out why they'd do anything that might have a negative impact on dollars coming to them.  But maybe I'm just not seeing it.  Maybe it's just redistributed sales?  Or concentrated elsewhere?  I don't know.

I expect a huge company like Amazon to constantly be tinkering and playing with their system, so maybe it's a momentary change in order to get to something else.


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## Eric C (Aug 3, 2009)

Jeff Shelby said:


> My question - and I'm not posing it really expecting any of us has the answer - is why . . . Because in my head it seems that it ultimately leads to fewer sales, which means less revenue for Amazon . . . I can't figure out why they'd do anything that might have a negative impact on dollars coming to them.


Amazon wants to reward authors who agree to go exclusive via Select, but they can't go overboard with that reward as the program waters down the curation powers of its website. Amazon will ultimately lose readers (and revenue) if consumers have a tougher time finding books they really want to buy. How valuable would the NY Times bestseller list be for readers if authors could buy a spot in its rankings? (Okay, that actually does happen, according to some, but my point holds.)


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

We might remember our interests in Select are not aligned with Amazon's interests. They are not opposed, but also not aligned.

Amazon created Select to induce people to join their Prime program. Independent authors are in Select to sell more books. It's possible for one side to succeed while the other fails.

We might also keep in mind that sometime in June the agency agreement with three big publishers will be gone. Those agreements will probably be replaced by normal wholesale agreements under DOJ supervision. This may give Amazon the option of putting lots of those published works in Select. That could lead to all kinds of fun.


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## Anne Frasier (Oct 22, 2009)

Eric C said:


> Amazon wants to reward authors who agree to go exclusive via Select, but they can't go overboard with that reward as the program waters down the curation powers of its website. Amazon will ultimately lose readers (and revenue) if consumers have a tougher time finding books they really want to buy. How valuable would the NY Times bestseller list be for readers if authors could buy a spot in its rankings? (Okay, that actually does happen, according to some, but my point holds.)


I think that's part of it, but I'm going to throw another theory in the pot. I was recently offered a contract from Amazon. (I was leaning strongly toward accepting it, but my agent wasn't. I can't go into detail about this though.) At that time, I was doing very well on my own, so I wasn't sure I would do better with a contract. Going from 70% to 30%? maybe it was 35%. I can't remember. But anyway, I was doing pretty well without a contract. So I'm actually wondering if they are running into this with other offers. Writers turning them down because they are doing so well on their own. So maybe Amazon is thinking they are making it too easy for writers to succeed without a contract. At the same time, they are trying to build their own imprints and make it easier for those imprints to do well.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

ETS PRESS said:


> I've read countless posts by people who discuss how sales have dropped and select isn't working like it did before. I've tried to make this point before, but it's generally ignored: Select was introduced in December, the climax month of sales. January and February had good follow through for many people, then all of the "sales have dropped and select sucks" posts began. Hmmm... could it possibly be the time of year? Is it possible the sales drop is natural? Did everyone expect to strike gold over and over again -even during the dry months? I honestly don't think we can truly compare results until we have something to compare it to -like this year to last year.
> 
> Example: My sales on TPT are beginning to drop. I fully expect them to drop off the face of the Earth in June, however, I have comparisons now, so I know that this quarter is the shorter end of the sales stick, BUT my sales are HIGHER this year than last year. And they were higher last year than they were the year before. It's a waste of my time to compare this month to August (the climax month of sales on TPT). Of course my sales are lower right now.
> 
> There is simply not enough true data (based on time) to draw conclusions about select (IMHO).


That they have changed the way the Popularity lists work is demonstrable and has nothing to do with the time of the year. That people stay high on that list a shorter time is also demonstrable.

Yes, there is nothing surprising in sales being lower in May than in December. There IS something surprising in dropping off the Popularity list faster. There is something surprising about getting little or no sales bounce from Promotions even if the sales bounce is less than it was in a high sales month.


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## Matthew Lee Adams (Feb 19, 2012)

Jeff Shelby said:


> Ed - thanks for doing the heavy lifting here. I've been trying to figure all of this out for weeks, but I suck at research and math, so... And thanks to Phoenix and Elizabeth for their insights, too.
> 
> My question - and I'm not posing it really expecting any of us has the answer - is why. I'm trying to step into Amazon's shoes and think from their side as to why this makes sense for Amazon and how it benefits them. Because in my head it seems that it ultimately leads to fewer sales, which means less revenue for Amazon. And yeah I get that KDP is a small drop in the bucket as far as revenue goes for Amazon so I'm not suggesting that it really hurts Amazon in the big picture - but I can't figure out why they'd do anything that might have a negative impact on dollars coming to them. But maybe I'm just not seeing it. *Maybe it's just redistributed sales? * Or concentrated elsewhere? I don't know.
> 
> I expect a huge company like Amazon to constantly be tinkering and playing with their system, so maybe it's a momentary change in order to get to something else.


Amazon probably benefits from steady sellers. If they're seeing people doing "free days" and getting a temporary bump (not all bumps are temporary - but Amazon may be looking at the percentages) that falls off, and it's impacting the visibility and therefore sales of steady sellers, they may be doing a little calculation of how to balance that out.

Perhaps they've even had complaints from some steady-selling authors whose visibility keeps getting knocked back a bit from someone's Select "free days."

Amazon isn't going to be able to make everyone happy, so they're probably trying to find a way to navigate a path that leads to what Amazon wants (as a profit-oriented company with long-term goals).



Terrence OBrien said:


> *We might remember our interests in Select are not aligned with Amazon's interests. They are not opposed, but also not aligned.
> 
> Amazon created Select to induce people to join their Prime program. Independent authors are in Select to sell more books.* It's possible for one side to succeed while the other fails.
> 
> We might also keep in mind that sometime in June the agency agreement with three big publishers will be gone. Those agreements will probably be replaced by normal wholesale agreements under DOJ supervision. This may give Amazon the option of putting lots of those published works in Select. That could lead to all kinds of fun.


This.

Amazon is probably happy with the popularity of Select among authors, but they also are looking at whether it's working the way *they* want it to work. And the agency agreement lawsuit and settlements throws in something else for Amazon to decide how they want to shift things overall.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

It's funny. In a way, I dislike complaining about Select because I DID get a long-term sales boost on several of my novels from the December and January promotions. The sales on those are STILL substantially higher than they were before. 

But we have to look at the possibility that the program hasn't worked quite the way Amazon wanted it to so they're tweaking some of the factors.

I don't agree with people who say we don't matter to Amazon. Of course, we do. Good lord, freaking Bezos bragged about how well indie authors do not long ago. We make money for them. It's only a slice of the pie but it's a slice they built. But they have to get that slice to fit together with all the other slices.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

JRTomlin said:


> I don't agree with people who say we don't matter to Amazon. Of course, we do. Good lord, freaking Bezos bragged about how well indie authors do not long ago. We make money for them. It's only a slice of the pie but it's a slice they built. But they have to get that slice to fit together with all the other slices.


This. Amazon needs to keep the traditional publishers happy. They want to keep indies happy. They're building their brand as a publisher. They're ensuring customers are happy. They want to maximize their sales and tweak to find out what formulas do it. Lots of balls in the air.

Just because one is on a downward curve for us indie authors, doesn't mean we can't find a way to work our exposure, to maximize our sales.


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## Jeff Shelby (Oct 2, 2011)

Eric C said:


> Amazon wants to reward authors who agree to go exclusive via Select, but they can't go overboard with that reward as the program waters down the curation powers of its website. Amazon will ultimately lose readers (and revenue) if consumers have a tougher time finding books they really want to buy. How valuable would the NY Times bestseller list be for readers if authors could buy a spot in its rankings? (Okay, that actually does happen, according to some, but my point holds.)


Okay, that makes really good sense from the reader's perspective. But if the reward for authors is then simply earning on borrows, I think that's a tough sell to enter into an exclusivity agreement. Which, when thinking about this:



Terrence OBrien said:


> We might remember our interests in Select are not aligned with Amazon's interests. They are not opposed, but also not aligned.


Makes perfect sense. For Amazon. If they aren't getting what they'd hoped to get out of it, on their end, they should change it.


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## Doctor Barbara (Aug 17, 2010)

Ed, thanks for your insight & update on KDP Select. Good thread with varied viewpoints. It's been a few months for me since putting one of my adult books as a free promo, although I put my first children's book in a series free a few weeks ago.

Thursday I put *Younger Next Decade* free and it had such a good result within a few hours & stayed there - so that I made it free also on Friday. It wavered between #150 - #220 free for two days and was #1 in women's health and #1 in healthy living almost the entire time. This was a better spot than it had been in in January. Now that you mention Amazon's marketing has changed with KDP Select, I am very curious - in essence since this book made it that high in the free rankings, it should really do well post-free unless somehow it's exposure is going to be less. I am going to consider it an experiment because if a book with free rankings that good ends up flopping to anonymity in a day or within a week, then I would think KDP free promos at this time are only helping books fly out of author's hands.


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## Susanne O (Feb 8, 2010)

MikeAngel said:


> I shudder to think what marvelous fiction you might write if you applied all this dilligence to a novel.


best comment ever.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

It's interesting (to me) to note (at a glance) that there is only 1 book in the "Popularity" top 100 priced at .99. Is it possible that the weight applied to sales isn't just less for free but  also less for .99 books (or even a sliding scale where cheaper books have less weight applied than more expensive books). Last year Locke, Hocking and Konrath were having big success at .99 (presumably by launching right onto the popularity list) I think those days are gone.

What this seems to mean:

Amazon is knowingly giving trad publishers an advantage over indie publishers (because pretty much the only weapon indies had was price)

The Popularity lists are the golden tickets to sales. (but how does one get on the popularity lists?)

Sponsorships on sites like POI, KFD, KND etc are definitely not worth the money. (is any paid advertising worth it if a "little bump" doesn't do anything)


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

Just emphasizing that you read Ed's post to get a perspective about what's changed on the popularity list. http://www.edwardwrobertson.com/2012/05/amazons-ever-changing-algorithms-part-2.html

I've also popped up a post that discusses some of the effects we'll be seeing and my own speculation as to the why of it all. (Hint: IMO, this is a solid business decision on Amazon's part that -- gasp! -- has absolutely nothing to do with Select or indies, although we receive the fallout from it.)
http://phoenixsullivan.blogspot.com/2012/05/why-kdp-select-is-no-longer-easy-golden.html

There are other super-geeks behind the scenes (including the Eye of Sauron and others with secret identities) who are working overtime to validate. What's being posted is stuff we're sure about. My high-level speculation is drawn not just from what we're making public but from other data we're seeing and still analyzing. So the caveat there is that my speculation is just that right now: speculation. Which, until we can validate more data trends, may or may not be the opinion of the other super-geeks. So grain of salt and all.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

Do you think that Amazon is thinking of shrinking down or eventually removing Select? Or, do you think that they're experiencing a glut of free products and are trying to stem the flow a little bit?

I'd lean toward the latter, knowing how much money and time Amazon has invested in the program, but compared to how much they may, Select doesn't seem to be a huge part of their spending budget. It actually looks like they're trying to really push the Audible.com program and get new customers. It's the only advertising I've seen from Amazon lately on TV.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

You're thinking like an individual, David, than a business. Time and money mean different things to us than to a company like Ammy. I think they'd move real quick to change the program, even to the extent of removing it, if it doesn't help generate revenues and/or increase profit margins. I've also been wondering if they'll change it to somehow stem the tidal wave of freebies, which are glutting Kindles to the point of constipation. How, though, is anyone's guess.

In the end, though, I believe Amazon's interests and writers' interests will dovetail. We all want more exposure and sales. Keeping customers happy by somehow limiting the scads of free slush is in everyone's interest.


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## MJWare (Jun 25, 2010)

BrianKittrell said:


> Do you think that Amazon is thinking of shrinking down or eventually removing Select? Or, do you think that they're experiencing a glut of free products and are trying to stem the flow a little bit?
> 
> I'd lean toward the latter, knowing how much money and time Amazon has invested in the program, but compared to how much they may, Select doesn't seem to be a huge part of their spending budget. It actually looks like they're trying to really push the Audible.com program and get new customers. It's the only advertising I've seen from Amazon lately on TV.


Amazon has committed to give Select authors 6 million this year. It's not like them to go back on their word; nor to give up so quickly. I can't imagine they aren't still committed to Select.


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## scottnicholson (Jan 31, 2010)




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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

MJAWare said:


> Amazon has committed to give Select authors 6 million this year. It's not like them to go back on their word; nor to give up so quickly. I can't imagine they aren't still committed to Select.


Yes, I agree, but I'm wondering if they plan on keeping it going into 2013, also. I doubt they'd cancel it while publicly declared to keep it going, but I don't think I saw a 2013 promise yet.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> You're thinking like an individual, David, than a business. Time and money mean different things to us than to a company like Ammy. I think they'd move real quick to change the program, even to the extent of removing it, if it doesn't help generate revenues and/or increase profit margins. I've also been wondering if they'll change it to somehow stem the tidal wave of freebies, which are glutting Kindles to the point of constipation. How, though, is anyone's guess.
> 
> In the end, though, I believe Amazon's interests and writers' interests will dovetail. We all want more exposure and sales. Keeping customers happy by somehow limiting the scads of free slush is in everyone's interest.


I keep hearing Mr. Burns as the voice reading your post.


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## 39179 (Mar 16, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> In the end, though, I believe Amazon's interests and writers' interests will dovetail. We all want more exposure and sales. Keeping customers happy by somehow limiting the scads of free slush is in everyone's interest.


I agree. However, how Amazon can implement the requirement of your last sentence is going to be _very_ tricky.


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## Dana Taylor (Jan 8, 2010)

scottnicholson said:


>


Love it, Scott! Hey as far as I'm concerned this whole Indie writing thing is a Grand Adventure. We are living in a fascinating era of history when computers and the Internet changed the publishing industry and the whole world in amazing ways. And we're in the thick of it. Five years ago my paperbacks published by an Independent Publisher sold ONE copy of "Devil Moon" all year. This year about 20,000 have flown out through cyberspace. Wow! So, it's a kind of strategy game.

Today I unenrolled my four books out of select, but there will still be some there until mid July. My next plan is to put together a book solely for Prime Select. I've got a bunch of short stories sitting around. I'll wrap them into a book, put excerpts of my other books at the end, have some fun with it and use that as my Freebie loss leader.

My other books are selling now in other venues, so being exclusive with Amazon makes no sense when they won't give us the push. But, the Freebie thing still is a great way to find new readers. So be creative. Make the system work for you.

Dana Taylor


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## R. Garcia (Apr 9, 2011)

I did a 3 day promotion (April 11-13) where I gave away 19,000 plus copies and my book "The Sun Zebra" reached #9 in the free Kindle store. On its first post-free day it had a ranking of 1,999 and from there it started decreasing. From the sales I got I recuperated my marketing expenses and made a little more money but I expected better results. From your post I could blame the algos but I think I have another issue. My book is "short stories" which is not a very popular category. Tess Hardwick's Riversong was also free for the same days I was. It reached #1 in the free Kindle store and it is still in the top 100. Riversong is in the  "Romance" category. I think this was a greater issue for me than the change in the algos.


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## Rex Jameson (Mar 8, 2011)

R. Garcia said:


> I did a 3 day promotion (April 11-13) where I gave away 19,000 plus copies and my book "The Sun Zebra" reached #9 in the free Kindle store. On its first post-free day it had a ranking of 1,999 and from there it started decreasing. From the sales I got I recuperated my marketing expenses and made a little more money but I expected better results. From your post I could blame the algos but I think I have another issue. My book is "short stories" which is not a very popular category. Tess Hardwick's Riversong was also free for the same days I was. It reached #1 in the free Kindle store and it is still in the top 100. Riversong is in the "Romance" category. I think this was a greater issue for me than the change in the algos.


That's a great result. Who all did you market with?


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## EC Sheedy (Feb 24, 2011)

scottnicholson said:


>


Fantastic! (That last pic is me when I start worrying about Amazon algos.... )


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## 28612 (Dec 7, 2010)

Many thanks to Ed & all who contribute and crunch the stats, and then share the info.

Thanks also to all for the comments and thoughts here.  Keeps all our eyes open.


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## Doctor Barbara (Aug 17, 2010)

R. Garcia, that wasn't a bad post-free earnings. But you're right, genre must matter. As I mentioned yesterday, my book Younger Next Decade was in the top 200 free rankings on Thursday and Friday and since not being free yesterday and today it has sold only One copy! Not good for any author.


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## B. Justin Shier (Apr 1, 2011)

Very interesting thread, Edward. And I have to agree with Mike (gasp). Your initial post makes me want to read your novels.

Has anyone looked at how Kindle Daily Deal books have been impacted by the change in algos? Mine ran on March 13th. The day ended with the book in the top 7 paid. Are we seeing less profound rankings increases for KDD books now too, or are the changes only affecting post-free bumps?

B.


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## Jan Strnad (May 27, 2010)

BrianKittrell said:


> Do you think that Amazon is thinking of shrinking down or eventually removing Select? Or, do you think that they're experiencing a glut of free products and are trying to stem the flow a little bit?
> 
> I'd lean toward the latter, knowing how much money and time Amazon has invested in the program, but compared to how much they may, Select doesn't seem to be a huge part of their spending budget. It actually looks like they're trying to really push the Audible.com program and get new customers. It's the only advertising I've seen from Amazon lately on TV.


I wonder about that too, Brian. Flooding the market with freebies does cost them computer space and time, and they still have to maintain those books in everyone's archives. Plus, there's customer service time involved, as we've seen from people whose campaigns haven't worked quite right. The cost per book certainly is minimal, but when you multiply it by millions of books, it does add up. More than that, even if the raw cost isn't significant, it's a step in the wrong direction: All of the cost with none of the financial reward.

Free promos may steer people toward certain titles, but do they help or hurt overall *sales*? I think that by glutting the market with free books, they're hurting, including hurting the sales of higher-priced (and more profitable) Trad books.

I'm kind of expecting the number of free days to go down, perhaps drastically. Adjusting the algorithms might be Amazon's way of zeroing in on that.

Edited to clarify: Everything I'm saying in this post is meant to be from the Amazon perspective, how *they* might be looking at the situation, not from the author's POV.


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## Becca Mills (Apr 27, 2012)

This is pretty sobering. The "bump" from freebies is the only reason I went with Select. The borrowing is a nice feature, but I don't think it's going to catch on in a meaningful way. Heck, I've been an Amazon Prime member for years, and I keep forgetting to borrow my one book a month. I see a good one and think, "Oh, I could borrow that, but I should wait until later in the month in case I see something I want more." Then suddenly it's the first of the next month, and I realize I've forgotten. Stupid, I know, but I bet a lot of people are stupid that way.


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## 41413 (Apr 4, 2011)

Ed, next time? Just go write another book. Jeez.



Thanks for sharing this information with the board! Very thought-provoking conversation here.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

B. Justin Shier said:


> Very interesting thread, Edward. And I have to agree with Mike (gasp). Your initial post makes me want to read your novels.
> 
> Has anyone looked at how Kindle Daily Deal books have been impacted by the change in algos? Mine ran on March 13th. The day ended with the book in the top 7 paid. Are we seeing less profound rankings increases for KDD books now too, or are the changes only affecting post-free bumps?


I don't think that's what Mike meant, but thanks. 

I'm no expert on KDDs, but the immediate results for those are based on a) Amazon advertising it and b) subsequent, near-instant visibility on the Bestseller lists, right? So assuming neither of those factors have changed--and I don't actually know if that's true--KDDs should, presumably, be just as effective in the short-term as before.

You might see a difference in the weeks afterwards, though. Previously, if you immediately saw thousands of sales from your KDD promo, that would vault you to the top of the popularity lists much in the same way as if you'd just come off a successful free run. Say you sell 5000 copies on your KDD day. Very, very few books sell 5000/copies in a single day. On the old list (List A, for those following the arbitrary terminology), which weights your most recent days most heavily, those 5000 sales would probably put you at the top of your genre's pop list.

That's no longer necessarily true, however, because the new pop lists are covering the last 30 days of sales. If you sold 5000 books on your KDD day, for instance, but had only sold 200 books in the 30 days prior to that, your pop list rank is going to depend on how well those 5200 sales match up to the last month of sales for the other books in your genre. Many of which may well have sold more than 5200 over the last 30 days. Where will you wind up, then? Well, the smaller your category, the better the chance you'll still be on page 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if 5200 sales could only put you on page 2 or 3 or 4 of the biggest (and thus most valuable visibility-wise) cats--Thriller, Romance, etc.

Still, your rank will probably look pretty good on your sub-cats. And page 2 or 3 or 4 of a major category like that is still a valuable thing to have--and your placement there should last at least 30 days (until those initial 5000 sales no longer count). In the days of List A, new books would start pushing you down the ranks within days.

All of this has been based on reasoning, not observation, so I could be completely wrong. But to me it sounds like massive promos like the KDD could wind up helping books even more than it did before.


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## nubchai (Feb 4, 2012)

Really interesting thread.   Some other writers and I have been discussing the diminished effect of free days and the reduced borrows in KDP Select.   If Amazon wants to keep publishers interested in the KDP select program and want to enforce exclusivity they have to offer benefits.   It looks like the free promo days no longer provide the sales pop they used to.  And borrows are definitely down.   So the two main benefits of being in the Select program are greatly diminished.    Maybe they do plan to do away with KDP Select.  Or maybe the Agency Pricing Model plays a role here.   Or they're simply not seeing the growth in the Select program that they expected.  But indi publishing is still alive and well.   Amazon is extending offers to indi writers who publish through Kindle and KDP Select.   They're finding the authors here.  I think what we'll end up seeing is a new Amazon Kindle  business model that may or may not include KDP Select.   But it will hopefully provide some tools and incentives to keep authors exclusive to KDP.   If not then there are other markets authors can use.

One additional thought.  I also think the Amazon Kindle technical platform is not ready for the traffic that KDP sales and promos seem to generate.  It seems that the first of each month brings some glitch that takes days to resolve.  And there have been mid month problems with promos that start grossly late or not at all.  They also have no direct customer support.  Everything is done through their email/messaging system.  This lack of technical readiness may also play some weird role in the possible changes to or departure of KDP Select.


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## B. Justin Shier (Apr 1, 2011)

Thanks, Edward. I ask about KDD for 2 reasons: 1) it is one of the major tools that Amazon Publishing uses to vault their own books high into the rankings and 2) how KDD books descend in the overall rankings (compared to how they used to) may give us better insight into what exactly has been changed. If the KDD patterns are unaffected, we have better evidence that this algorithm change was a direct reaction to the post-free phenomenon rather than a general move by Amazon to focus on longer sales trends and away from rewarding marked changes to sales velocity.

A bit of background on KDD: KDD is the Kindle Daily Deal. Amazon selects 1 book a day to be featured, promotes it heavily, and usually sells it marked down to 1 or 2 dollars. It is the best single day advertisement that an author selling on Amazon can receive. A book featured as a KDD tends to sell between 5,000 and 10,000 copies in that single day, and you get 70% of any revenue. At least prior to March 19th, a KDD caused a meteoric rise in a book's rankings followed by a slow ranking descent in the following days. Book ranks following a KDD were somehow averaged in with their performance day 1. So while my own book only sold 1/10 of the copies on day 2 that it did on day 1, it only descended a few ranking slots by the end of day 2. (You could think of KDD as a canon ball that was wearing a parachute.) I haven't closely monitored other KDD books since then. I cannot say whether this remains to be true.

B.


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## BRONZEAGE (Jun 25, 2011)

B. Justin Shier said:


> ..........(You could think of KDD as a canon ball that was wearing a parachute.)
> B.


Loved the image of the cannonball wearing a parachute.


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## B. Justin Shier (Apr 1, 2011)

Funny, all I can see is the misspelling...doh. : /

B.


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## Carol99 (Oct 27, 2011)

I am just getting my feet wet so I will have to go back and re-read these posts slowly to digest, but I have a totally different question -- one far simpler to answer than algorithms and such: what is with the "status" beneath everyone's name, followed by famous authors?  Who sets this up?


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

The system will never resolve to a steady state, and no equilibrium will be reached. We will always be analyzing the incremental difference between now and a previous period. Hence, we will never have sufficient data on which we can base decisions. There will always be a hunch factor.

Also consider Microsoft just jumped into eBooks with both feet, and Apple and Target just fired a very hard shot at Amazon. Think this is the end?  It's just the beginning of the real fun.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

I think Amazon is trying to cut back on Free somehow or de-emphasize it's impact on ranking and thereby sales. Previously if I was checking out a Free ebook the algobots displayed other Free ebooks--now not a single one is listed though there are 3000+ on any given day. Now it only displays priced ebooks.

Even if you have 20,000 ebooks downloaded on Free in 3 days, it does not really seem to factor in the rankings once you go off. You sink like a brick in ranking and sales--so the Free bounce is gone.

Things will continue to change in an enviroment that is in flux. What worked last month may not work next month. It will take 5 years or more to settle down. This is still the beginning.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

Jan Strnad said:


> I wonder about that too, Brian. Flooding the market with freebies does cost them computer space and time, and they still have to maintain those books in everyone's archives. Plus, there's customer service time involved, as we've seen from people whose campaigns haven't worked quite right. The cost per book certainly is minimal, but when you multiply it by millions of books, it does add up. More than that, even if the raw cost isn't significant, it's a step in the wrong direction: All of the cost with none of the financial reward.
> 
> Free promos may steer people toward certain titles, but do they help or hurt overall *sales*? I think that by glutting the market with free books, they're hurting, including hurting the sales of higher-priced (and more profitable) Trad books.
> 
> ...


Yes, it may be dragging down overall sales. There were some threads talking about how they were noticing things, like when one title went free under one pen name, sales seemed to stop on their other pen name in the same/similar genre. I can't remember any direct quotes from the thread talking about it, but you may remember glancing at it.

I also can't remember the number of free days you get with Select, but I thought it was 3 or 5 per 90 days. That'd be 12 or 20 free days for every year. If you have 100,000 authors in the program (never saw the number that high, but I haven't kept up with it lately), that's 1.2 - 2.0 million free days per year. If each book gives away a meager 100 copies during that time, that's 120 - 200 million ebooks going out for free each year.

This illustration could be way under or way over what the real numbers are, but it's decent for the purposes of a model to see how it works and guess as to what the effects may be.

In the area of hundreds of millions of ebooks... yikes, I had to fathom that for a moment... that's a lot of books. If even a quarter of those were selling at $0.99 instead (a quarter of the 200 million), Amazon could be losing $17.5 million in revenues (and then add in the money pot for borrows each month) from those titles. The question is, are they making enough through Prime subscriptions compared to what they were making before the Select program to justify it?

They actually could be. Without Amazon telling us, there's no way to know for sure. I guess the proof lies in whether or not the Select program is still around in Q4.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

I think Brian that Amazon is trying to limit Free because they think it could be costing them. I think Select Free had unintended consequences for Amazon's sales. Could be wrong, they don't call me much and tell me.

I have a feeling Free downloads are costing too much.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

BrianKittrell said:


> Yes, it may be dragging down overall sales. There were some threads talking about how they were noticing things, like when one title went free under one pen name, sales seemed to stop on their other pen name in the same/similar genre. I can't remember any direct quotes from the thread talking about it, but you may remember glancing at it.
> 
> I also can't remember the number of free days you get with Select, but I thought it was 3 or 5 per 90 days. That'd be 12 or 20 free days for every year. If you have 100,000 authors in the program (never saw the number that high, but I haven't kept up with it lately), that's 1.2 - 2.0 million free days per year. If each book gives away a meager 100 copies during that time, that's 120 - 200 million ebooks going out for free each year.
> 
> ...


Amazon's attitude has been that giving something away is not "losing revenue".

They sell the Kindle below cost. That doesn't mean they are losing revenue. Hooking people on ebooks isn't either. I suspect they could do the math as easily as you can on how many free books would be out there. There is good reason to think a lot of the free books are never read. That doesn't mean that the person who downloaded it doesn't buy other books.

I don't know the reason for Amazon's changes, but I'm pretty sure it isn't that they were too dense to figure out how many books would be going free every year.


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## LilianaHart (Jun 20, 2011)

I put one book in Select at the end of March as an experiment, and it was honestly one of the best strategies I've used for getting sales. I did two free days on a Saturday and Sunday of the first book in a series. In two days, it was downloaded 40,000 times and then when it went back on the paid list it peaked at #89 and then stayed between #100-300 for about 3 weeks. It then started dropping gradually, but it's still in the high 2000-3000 range. This, in turn, boosted the sales of all my other books. I'm going to use my 3 remaining free days in June, just before book 2 of the series comes out, and then I'll drop the price of book one to $2.99. I'm really expecting this to boost sales a lot again. 

I've never had a free promotion, from select or through price matching, that hasn't boosted my sales a lot. Every book I've ever had go free has hit #1 in the free store. I do think my social media has something to do with it, but it could just as easily be that I have Amazon luck (which I'm extremely grateful for). I don't have near the success at B&N. 

So for me, free is still working, and it's a tool I'll continue to use until it doesn't anymore. Everyone's strategies work differently, which is what makes self-pubbing so great. There are many roads.


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## RuthNestvold (Jan 4, 2012)

JRTomlin said:


> I don't know the reason for Amazon's changes, but I'm pretty sure it isn't that they were too dense to figure out how many books would be going free every year.


They're experimenting, and we're their guinea pigs. *g* But, hey, it's not life-threatening or anything, and sometimes we get lucky and makes lots of money off their experiments.

When it comes down to it, we're *all* in only marginally charted territory, Amazon included. They're trying to figure out what works best for them, we're trying to figure out what they figured out so we can figure out what works best for us. And the whole damn system is so new that it's constantly in flux and no one knows quite how to beat it, so everyone keeps talking about luck while at the same time hoping they can systematize their way to success.

Not trying to knock your work here, Edward, I'm very grateful when you and others do these kind of analyses, but I think as far as trying to assign motives to Amazon is concerned, it's most likely exactly what we're doing here: they're trying to find the best model for the best profit. So they keep trying new things, which totally screws up the brilliant strategies we learned from our sales a month before.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

JRTomlin said:


> I don't know the reason for Amazon's changes, but I'm pretty sure it isn't that they were too dense to figure out how many books would be going free every year.


True, but I wonder if it's some smaller detail that wasn't anticipated. Could be exactly what others are talking about above, that some free books may have been spending way too much time in the top of the lists. The change--if what we're saying of it is true--could be more fair for everyone, but we may see more plateauing (not sure if that's a word or if it's spelled right, lol) as things go along.

People have been reporting that free runs have been resulting in far fewer downloads than what we used to experience a while back. That result could be from the number of free titles available, and Amazon likely doesn't care about this facet of the happenings.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

RuthNestvold said:


> they're trying to find the best model for the best profit. So they keep trying new things, which totally screws up the brilliant strategies we learned from our sales a month before.


Profit may not even be it. Market share or just shaking things up. That indie ranks may fall or rise is not their target--they are probably not really considering the impact on an indie. Like when I walk on a sidewalk do I think I may squash a bug? Unintended consequences.


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## Jan Strnad (May 27, 2010)

> Amazon's attitude has been that giving something away is not "losing revenue".


At some point they have to make money on something. They can give away (or lose money on) the Kindles but make it up in ebook revenue. Or...they can give away a lot of ebooks to sell Kindles that they make money on. But losing money on the Kindles so that they can lose money on the ebooks doesn't add up.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

Jan Strnad said:


> At some point they have to make money on something. They can give away (or lose money on) the Kindles but make it up in ebook revenue. Or...they can give away a lot of ebooks to sell Kindles that they make money on. But losing money on the Kindles so that they can lose money on the ebooks doesn't add up.


Exactly. It has been said that books now make up a rather small portion of their revenues now, though. The revenues for books and ebooks has been climbing, but their other operations have been growing much faster. Who would have thought that people wanted toasters more than books? 

I know that I buy a lot more diapers than I do books. We seem to go through the diapers much faster.


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## JeanneM (Mar 21, 2011)

Carol99 said:


> I am just getting my feet wet so I will have to go back and re-read these posts slowly to digest, but I have a totally different question -- one far simpler to answer than algorithms and such: what is with the "status" beneath everyone's name, followed by famous authors? Who sets this up?


 I'm not really sure and have always wondered what they mean. But I believe the site owners set it up. Authors names change the more you post. Welcome to KB, Dr. Seuss.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

BrianKittrell said:


> Exactly. It has been said that books now make up a rather small portion of their revenues now, though. The revenues for books and ebooks has been climbing, but their other operations have been growing much faster. Who would have thought that people wanted toasters more than books?
> 
> I know that I buy a lot more diapers than I do books. We seem to go through the diapers much faster.


Because I've had great luck with Amazon from buying books and my Kindle, I've gone on to purchase other items from them too. They've become a trusted retailer to me. However, on the whole, I'm still wary of purchasing from other sites.


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## traceya (Apr 26, 2010)

Very interesting thread Ed and interesting info also.  I've been a little dubious about Select for the simple reason that most of my Oz fans use Smashwords to purchase my work and I didn't want to cut off a source of reasonably profitable income.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

jackz4000 said:


> Profit may not even be it. Market share or just shaking things up. That indie ranks may fall or rise is not their target--they are probably not really considering the impact on an indie. Like when I walk on a sidewalk do I think I may squash a bug? Unintended consequences.


Freudian? Sometimes it feels like we are the bugs getting squashed, whether intentionally or not.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

I always assumed that Amazon's purpose for Kindle Select and the KOLL was to be able to claim a large number of exclusive titles, (i.e. "130,000 ebooks on the kindle that you can't get anywhere else!!!") as a marketing ploy to sell more kindles, and promote PRIME (i.e. "With PRIME you get 12,000 streaming movies for free, 130,000 exclusive e-books to borrow for free and free 2 day shipping!"). However, aside from Bezos mentioning it to the stockholders I haven't seen it advertised anywhere.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

LisaGraceBooks said:


> Because I've had great luck with Amazon from buying books and my Kindle, I've gone on to purchase other items from them too. They've become a trusted retailer to me. However, on the whole, I'm still wary of purchasing from other sites.


I agree. I don't have to think twice about buying stuff from Amazon. The product itself may make me pause, but not the retailer.


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

I think this may be the digital equivalent to the Death of the Midlist Authors.

Instead of everybody splitting the pie, it's feast or famine, with a few winners (1%?) taking the 95% and the rest squabbling for crumbs. It's been this way in traditional publishing for a long time, so it may be inevitable. Total lottery system. That 50 Shades lady is doing well, I suppose ...

In order to be popular on Amazon you have to be popular. Once you're popular you become more popular. AAAAAAGGGGG!!! It's enough to make me jump up and run around in circles rather than write my next book. Some days I wonder why I bother. Then I get a sale (my books are on sale for 99cents now) and a quarter and a nickel drop into my little coffee can and I jump around like a little monkey to the sound of those coins clattering, typing up another scene.  Yay! I can dream again!


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## Rex Jameson (Mar 8, 2011)

I'm not entirely sure this analysis is accurate because of a KDP Select I just did on May 3-4 on the last two days of my Select period for Angels and Demons: Perspectives of a Violent Afterlife.  At the time, it only had a 3.3 star rating, and it's just one of those love it or hate it books, so END was very hesitant to feature it because there are simply so many 4- to 5-star average books that are being submitted (that aren't so intentionally controversial).

Eventually, Greg, being the awesomely nice guy that he is, featured it on the very last day with only 6 hours remaining on the promotion, resulting in roughly 1300 downloads before the promotion ended automatically. The next day, I woke up to 8 sales. And since then, I've accumulated 16 total in 2 days (and a 2 star review, so I doubt I'll ever be able to do another KDP Select for this one due to the average rating). In April, this book only sold 10 with 2 borrows for the entire month.

Now, there is a mitigating factor here. The book left KDP Select on May 5th, so perhaps there is a specific algorithm being used for KDP Select titles and another for non-Select, and my book had ventured into the latter after it's free promotion? But I'm pretty sure it was enrolled in KDP Select all of Saturday, May 5th when it accumulated 8 sales. There were zero sales for it in May prior to the free period, and I think most of April's 10 sales happened within the past 30 days upon the exit from Select.

Another possibility could be that the window is now the past 6-12 hours, which would mean that a 2 or 3 day promo is less ideal because if you frontload the downloads on the first day through ENT/POI, it may not count after the Select period ends. Now that I think about it, this scenario is exactly what happened with my other books that had 1300-2600 downloads in a Select period yet had no sales increases in March and April. Just offering my own suppositions, which seems par for the course for these threads .


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## Robert Bidinotto (Mar 3, 2011)

Some have suggested that the algorithms may cut both ways -- elevating some titles just as they cause others to fade.

I'm wondering today if something like the former has just happened to me. Inexplicably, _HUNTER_ is having a major sales surge today -- up over 1600 rankings in less than a single day. It stands currently at #879, and hitting triple-digit sales + "borrows," after only 21 sales + borrows yesterday!

I've Googled my name and the book's title, and can find absolutely no mentions in the past 24 hours that would account for an out-of-the-blue jump this big. Nor have I seen any Amazon emails or prominent page placements about my book that could explain it. (Have any of you?)

Unless some talk-show host has endorsed it, I have to believe that some algorithm change is doing its work in my favor. I'll certainly report back if any other reason emerges for this. But if not, I may be enjoying an "up side" to algorithm adjustments.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> Some have suggested that the algorithms may cut both ways -- elevating some titles just as they cause others to fade.
> 
> I'm wondering today if something like the former has just happened to me. Inexplicably, _HUNTER_ is having a major sales surge today -- up over 1600 rankings in less than a single day. It stands currently at #879, and hitting triple-digit sales + "borrows," after only 21 sales + borrows yesterday!
> 
> ...


Check again in about 72 hours (or sign up for Google Alerts). Sometimes it takes time for Google to index sites, no matter how popular they are.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

Whatever the cause, Robert, great news! Congrats. Hope it keeps up for you.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

Cool Robert. Hope it stays.


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## Robert Bidinotto (Mar 3, 2011)

Brian, I'm aware of the occasional time lag in Google indexing, though I would've thought that I'd have heard about any publicity that could've generated sales on this scale.

However, if I had to choose between either satisfying my curiosity about this surge, or simply HAVING the surge, guess which one I'd pick?

Thanks, all. I'll report whatever I learn, if I do.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> Brian, I'm aware of the occasional time lag in Google indexing, though I would've thought that I'd have heard about any publicity that could've generated sales on this scale.


Agreed, it is entirely strange (but entirely welcome at the same time).  One of the strangest things I've seen is how long it takes Google to cache things on Twitter. Of course, it may be more selective about caching tweets since there are a whole lot of those things flying at any given time.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

D. said:


> In order to be popular on Amazon you have to be popular. Once you're popular you become more popular. AAAAAAGGGGG!!!


We're essentially back to square one with regards to discoverability.



Rex Jameson said:


> Now, there is a mitigating factor here. The book left KDP Select on May 5th, so perhaps there is a specific algorithm being used for KDP Select titles and another for non-Select,


My sales (although not good to begin with) dropped after I opted out of select. I wasn't on any popularity charts that I know of but It's entirely possible that Amazon gives preference to select titles when recommending also-boughts.

ETA: It should be noted that decline in sales has coincided chronologically as we get further from December, which seems to be a typical trend.


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## Lexi Revellian (May 31, 2010)

Robert, I had a minor sales surge last week in the UK, and like you began to wonder if the algorithms had been tweaked to be more favourable. I discovered _Remix _and _Replica _featured on an Amazon page: 100 Kindle books under £2.99.

Then they changed the hundred books and my ranks took a dive...

It was nice while it lasted.

Lexi


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## vrabinec (May 19, 2011)

Lexi Revellian said:


> Robert, I had a minor sales surge last week in the UK, and like you began to wonder if the algorithms had been tweaked to be more favourable. I discovered _Remix _and _Replica _featured on an Amazon page: 100 Kindle books under £2.99.
> 
> Then they changed the hundred books and my ranks took a dive...
> 
> ...


What do you mean, more favorable? Is it just the "value" of freebies that's being manipulated here in the algorithms? Sorry, but I'm not that familiar with all this stuff. I assume you mean that your book comes up in a search through your genre sooner than it did before, is that right? Let's say I go to Amazon, my standard search is sci-fi. It brings up a bonch of options called "best sellers" and then if I've already read through all those that interest me, I have to do a secondary search that includes the sci-fi books beyond the best sellers. They get listed in some order and I probably pick the first one that pops up that interests me. Now, to move up that list, to get your book show up before other books do, you have to sell more books, right? Or, is there more to it than sales? (and adjusting the "value" of sales for freebies)


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

vrabinec said:


> What do you mean, more favorable? Is it just the "value" of freebies that's being manipulated here in the algorithms? Sorry, but I'm not that familiar with all this stuff. I assume you mean that your book comes up in a search through your genre sooner than it did before, is that right? Let's say I go to Amazon, my standard search is sci-fi. It brings up a bonch of options called "best sellers" and then if I've already read through all those that interest me, I have to do a secondary search that includes the sci-fi books beyond the best sellers. They get listed in some order and I probably pick the first one that pops up that interests me. Now, to move up that list, to get your book show up before other books do, you have to sell more books, right? Or, is there more to it than sales? (and adjusting the "value" of sales for freebies)


That's basically it, as I understand it.

The discussion is that sales and freebies might not be equally weighted at 1:1. The belief (based on Edward's blog and this thread) is that Freebies are weighted less (by as much as 90%) than a paid sale in regards to the popularity rankings. So 10,000 freebies given away only moves the books rankings as much as if 1,000 had been sold. But in my opinion it's entirely possible that Amazon has added other factors in. Maybe higher priced books have higher weights, so an equal quantity sold of a $9.99 title moves up the chart faster than an equal quantity of a .99 title. Maybe books that are enrolled in select have a higher weight so an equal quantity sold of a Select book moves up the charts faster than an equal quantity of a non-Select book.


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## vrabinec (May 19, 2011)

Thanks, Nathan. Yeah, it would make sense for them to weigh the higher priced books more favorably since they make more on those, and they make nothing on the freebies. Still, a freebie IS a sale, since it's a product someone wanted, so they've got to give it SOME value.


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## SentientSurfer (Sep 20, 2011)

NathanWrann said:


> Maybe higher priced books have higher weights, so an equal quantity sold of a $9.99 title moves up the chart faster than an equal quantity of a .99 title. Maybe books that are enrolled in select have a higher weight so an equal quantity sold of a Select book moves up the charts faster than an equal quantity of a non-Select book.


Another reason for them to do this is the borrows. I'm sure Amazon is tired of paying authors $2 for a 99cent book every time it's borrowed.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

SentientSurfer said:


> Another reason for them to do this is the borrows. I'm sure Amazon is tired of paying authors $2 for a 99cent book every time it's borrowed.


Except Ammy has committed to paying out the $6 mil regardless of numbers of borrows or the prices of the books borrowed.


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## SentientSurfer (Sep 20, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> Except Ammy has committed to paying out the $6 mil regardless of numbers of borrows or the prices of the books borrowed.


In understand that the pot is already set, but wouldn't they prefer those borrows go to books that would have netted them at least $2 without the program?

Also, the end of the promo gives your book a boost - thus when more pricey books are pushed after the promo period they'll have more actual sales as well as borrows, so more money goes to Amazon.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

SentientSurfer said:


> In understand that the pot is already set, but wouldn't they prefer those borrows go to books that would have netted them at least $2 without the program?
> 
> Also, the end of the promo gives your book a boost - thus when more pricey books are pushed after the promo period they'll have more actual sales as well as borrows, so more money goes to Amazon.


At the same time, there are plenty of books in the program where a $2 borrow payout is less than the royalty they would have received otherwise. And Amazon's hope would probably be to have so many borrows that the borrow rate is lower than what the average royalty would have been.

It's also worth noting that Amazon probably is of the opinion that a borrow does not necessarily mean that the same book would have been purchased.


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## SentientSurfer (Sep 20, 2011)

NathanWrann said:


> At the same time, there are plenty of books in the program where a $2 borrow payout is less than the royalty they would have received otherwise. And Amazon's hope would probably be to have so many borrows that the borrow rate is lower than what the average royalty would have been.
> 
> It's also worth noting that Amazon probably is of the opinion that a borrow does not necessarily mean that the same book would have been purchased.


Amazon makes nothing on a borrow. Their benefit comes from boosting books once they come off free. If high priced books get a better boost, they can make more profit.

On the borrows themselves: If lost cost borrows eat up the bulk of the books loaned then authors with high-cost borrows get less per borrow and may have an incentive to leave the program. I'd assume that Amazon would like to have more high-cost books available for borrow as this makes the loaning library look like a better deal to their customers:

"I can borrow any of these 1,000s of $8 books for free vs. I can borrow any of these thousands of $1 books for free."

Conjecture, yes, but I think it makes some sense.

That or I need more coffee.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

SentientSurfer said:


> Amazon makes nothing on a borrow. *Their benefit comes from boosting books once they come off free*. If high priced books get a better boost, they can make more profit.


Are we talking about KOLL borrows here or Select Free books. I think Amazon's sole benefit from Select is in being able to say "we have 130,000 ebooks that nobody else has" and It's another benefit to Prime members.



SentientSurfer said:


> On the borrows themselves: If lost cost borrows eat up the bulk of the books loaned then authors with high-cost borrows get less per borrow and may have an incentive to leave the program. I'd assume that Amazon would like to have more high-cost books available for borrow as this makes the loaning library look like a better deal to their customers:
> 
> "I can borrow any of these 1,000s of $8 books for free vs. I can borrow any of these thousands of $1 books for free."
> 
> ...


but a borrow doesn't necessarily equal a lost sale. If my book is $9.99 and it's in Select and 20 people borrow it, that doesn't necessarily mean that I lost $5 per sale to those people because it's likely that the only reason they borrowed the book was because it was "free" to them. Those are sales that might not have occurred, so that would not (in my opinion) be a very good reason for leaving Select. But yes, if given the choice Amazon would prefer to have high-priced, very popular books Free for Prime members.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> However, aside from Bezos mentioning it to the stockholders I haven't seen it advertised anywhere.


I think we would have to ask people who purchased a new Kindle or Fire. They got a 30-day free Prime trial. Amazon wants to convert them to paying Primers. That would be a logical target group. I have been a Primer for 5(?) years, so I wouldn't be a target for any ads.

And borrows vs sales? We may easily see a system like Apple has for videos on Apple TV. I rented _Hugo_ over the weekend for $5. The purchase option was $20. The rent and buy buttons sat right next to each other.


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## SentientSurfer (Sep 20, 2011)

NathanWrann said:


> Are we talking about KOLL borrows here or Select Free books. I think Amazon's sole benefit from Select is in being able to say "we have 130,000 ebooks that nobody else has" and It's another benefit to Prime members.


Pretty much in agreement, but these two things go hand-in hand. You can't have your book in the Loaning Library without having the option to make it free. You don't need to make it free, of course, but I would venture to guess that Amazon expects you to make your book free for the exposure. In turn, Amazon hopes that exposure will help you sell more copies - and it will add fresh books to their pop lists - which will make them more money.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

SentientSurfer said:


> Pretty much in agreement, but these two things go hand-in hand. You can't have your book in the Loaning Library without having the option to make it free. You don't need to make it free, of course, but I would venture to guess that Amazon expects you to make your book free for the exposure. In turn, Amazon hopes that exposure will help you sell more copies - and it will add fresh books to their pop lists - which will make them more money.


Except that Amazon (per the OP's blog) has crippled the effectiveness to get on the pop lists via free.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> In turn, Amazon hopes that exposure will help you sell more copies - and it will add fresh books to their pop lists - which will make them more money.


That's reasonable. The flip side is Amazon would rather have a consumer buy a $10 book than a $2.99 KDL book. So pushing consumers to $2.99 books competes with the $10 books.

The ultimate constraint on sales is eyeball hours. If a consumer is buying to fill ten eyeball hours, it's better to have her pay $10 than $2.99.

As always, it's a guess since they don't call and I'm not smart enough to be certain about what they think.


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

I get borrows on books I'm selling for 99cents.

It makes no sense. I do, however, enjoy over-thinking it and trying to come up with better schemes to launch me to the top.


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## scottnicholson (Jan 31, 2010)

I can never figure out what is going on, I just try to feel the ebb and flow of the tide. I've probably given away close to three-quarters of a million ebooks in Select, counting my collaborations. I've probably doubled my sales  over last year. I've probably been an idiot. But I don't care. There will never be another time in history where anyone will care about your free book. Because soon free may not be so special at all. At least now there are only 4,000 a day.

My goal is to give away a million ebooks. Then I'll probably be done. I figure Amazon is not at all worried about profit at the moment, and I doubt any of their Kindle decisions right now are based on bottom lines. I see it, as several have pointed out, as beefing up their Prime membership into the Mack Daddy powerhouse of all your music, movies and books in one place for one low monthly fee. At which time, of course, authors will probably be earning a nickel per download.

I say worry about tomorrow when tomorrow gets here, or better yet, don't worry at all. We were here in the Golden Age and got lucky.


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## vrabinec (May 19, 2011)

NathanWrann said:


> Except that Amazon (per the OP's blog) has crippled the effectiveness to get on the pop lists via free.


I wonder why they'd go that route. Greater exposure for new authors can only lead to more sales. I suppose it might be harming the sales of some b-list estbalished authors because the freebies bump them down every day, but the big time authors are still at the top. They're the ones that really make Amazon money. And if the b-listers really want to, they can go a freebie weekend same as the indies. The only thing that might make me squelch the up and commers is if there are a lot of complaints about the quality of the books that are sitting atop the lists. But then, how could Amazon differentiate between the good freebies and the bad freebies without reviewing the work? So they're stuck either bumping up some relatively poor quality indie books and ticking off some customers or driving down some good quality indie books and losing out on those sales. It seems to me they're better off opting to bump up a few poor quality books and in the process making the readers become better at judging books by the blurbs and previews. So, my take is, it's the reader's fault.


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## ToniD (May 3, 2011)

Robert: re Google Alerts, I've found them hit-and-miss. More than a few times, I've discovered a mention of my book somewhere and never did get a Google alert. But whatever gremlin caused your bump, congrats!

Justin: re your comment "You could think of KDD as a canon ball that was wearing a parachute"...I think you've just described the gold standard for the perfect promo. 

Re the post-March 19 changes: I did three promos before that date and one after. I saw no significant difference in freeloads or post-promo payloads. (except for the one freebie that POI picked up, which led to placement on the main Amazon mystery/thriller page, which did give a noticeable boost) That said, I do see the different popularity lists and am very glad to have Edward and Phoenix and all KB geeks trying to figure things out. Thanks.


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## Ty Johnston (Jun 19, 2009)

I'd like to throw in a possible argument for why it might NOT be better for Amazon (and the rest of us) that a consumer would purchase a $10 ebook instead of a $2.99 ebook. Obviously it would mean more more money immediately, but in the long run, not necessarily, and Amazon has shown a lot of forward thinking.

If a reader purchases a $10 ebook, that is a bigger chunk of their wallet. A $2.99 ebook takes a smaller chunk, leaving open the possibility the reader would purchase other ebooks. Also, a $10 ebook isn't as likely to draw as many impulse buyers as a cheaper ebook.

Just a possibility. Maybe Amazon is leaning towards this type type of thinking.


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## Geoffrey (Jun 20, 2009)

Just to play Devil's Advocate, perhaps a change to the weight of a freebie was done with a regard to consumers and not to authors.  There is a glut of free books on Amazon at the moment and we are swimming in them.  Let's just say that a certain percentage of these free books are not quality books (Not your book - but the stuff by other authors) and as free books, these lower quality books get downloaded and so they rise in the lists.  As a reader, I would then tend to see these books more often when I'm book hunting so it would appear that Amazon is pushing low quality product in my general direction.

So, as a consumer, I now have to wade through more books to find the keepers - so I might be more likely to buy from Baen or Dreamspinner or some other site where I don't have to do so much.

Now that doesn't help the good author who's trapped in the pile of books - and I don't doubt for a moment that some wonderful books get lost in anonymity from the deluge of sub-par books.  It does, however, help the consumer by advancing those indie authors who've already started to be discovered instead of throwing up a list of books that were free last week.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

Geoffrey said:


> Just to play Devil's Advocate, perhaps a change to the weight of a freebie was done with a regard to consumers and not to authors.


no doubt.


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## MJWare (Jun 25, 2010)

ToniD said:


> Robert: re Google Alerts, I've found them hit-and-miss. More than a few times, I've discovered a mention of my book somewhere and never did get a Google alert. But whatever gremlin caused your bump, congrats!


Same here. Google Alerts misses a lot of stuff, even blogs that are big enough to bump sales. I do a Google search about once a week, _sorted by date_. I find like 1 review a month that I would have never known about doing that.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> I wonder why they'd go that route. Greater exposure for new authors can only lead to more sales.


It certainly leads to more sales for those new authors, but we don't know if it leads to a revenue increase for Amazon.


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## Jan Strnad (May 27, 2010)

> Still, a freebie IS a sale, since it's a product someone wanted, so they've got to give it SOME value.


I'd argue that the fundamental feature that defines a "sale" is that someone paid money for it. If they give you some other item in exchange for it, it's a "trade." A freebie is...a freebie.

I do see your point that a book someone took for free is different from a book that was offered for free but no one wanted. So a freebie does have *some* cachet with Amazon.

The basic challenge of the whole system, statistically, is trying to take a general trend (the "popularity" of titles) and predicting a specific, individual outcome (how much you-the-reader will enjoy a particular title). It's like knowing the probability of rainfall and trying to predict where an individual raindrop will fall.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Rex Jameson said:


> I'm not entirely sure this analysis is accurate because of a KDP Select I just did on May 3-4 on the last two days of my Select period for Angels and Demons: Perspectives of a Violent Afterlife. At the time, it only had a 3.3 star rating, and it's just one of those love it or hate it books, so END was very hesitant to feature it because there are simply so many 4- to 5-star average books that are being submitted (that aren't so intentionally controversial).
> 
> Eventually, Greg, being the awesomely nice guy that he is, featured it on the very last day with only 6 hours remaining on the promotion, resulting in roughly 1300 downloads before the promotion ended automatically. The next day, I woke up to 8 sales. And since then, I've accumulated 16 total in 2 days (and a 2 star review, so I doubt I'll ever be able to do another KDP Select for this one due to the average rating). In April, this book only sold 10 with 2 borrows for the entire month.
> 
> ...


Okay, well let's look at this info.

After giving away 1300 copies, your book probably would have wound up on the first page of the World Literature > Mythology popularity lists yesterday afternoon. Few books sell 1300 copies in a day. In fact, that probably would have put you at #1 or at least 2 in the category--the current top spot in that category is occupied by a book that's #20 in the entire store, but the second book in the category is "only" at #158, and the third is at #261, which only takes somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple hundred sales a day to maintain. 1300 in a day easily tops everyone except that #1 spot. You wouldn't stick at #2 in Mythology for long, but you would probably be on the first page of the category for 2-3 days.

Instead, on the new lists, your book is at #223, buried on the 19th page. Based on that placement, I'm going to assume the three-day bump won't materialize.

Yet as of your post, you _had_ sold 16 in the two days that followed your promo. Which was more than all of April. Safe to say the promo did lead to some additional sales.

Which isn't inconsistent with the info we've got in the Mega-Thread. In the day+ after going free, books often sold more than normal even before they hit the pop lists some ~40 hours later. I honestly have no idea why. Spillover from the mentions on the book blogs? People who saw those notices and bought without realizing the book wasn't free? The usual overnight returns would support that. Maybe some people saw the notice, knew the book was no longer free, but were still interested enough to buy it? I dunno. Probably all kinds of other factors I don't have the first clue about.

This is just one data point, so it could wind up meaning nothing at all, but with the similar two-day trends available in the Mega-Thread, it's believable that going free will continue to earn us _some_ extra sales. But how many compared to before, when we had that pop list-driven bump? That's what I'm skeptical--yet extremely curious about--from here.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

scottnicholson said:


> I can never figure out what is going on, I just try to feel the ebb and flow of the tide...Because soon free may not be so special at all. At least now there are only 4,000 a day.
> 
> My goal is to give away a million ebooks. Then I'll probably be done. I figure Amazon is not at all worried about profit at the moment, and I doubt any of their Kindle decisions right now are based on bottom lines.
> 
> ... or better yet, don't worry at all. We were here in the Golden Age and got lucky.


I like this^^^ You can keep trying to figure out what Amazon is doing and you will seldom be right for very long. If you are right--things will change...again. With only a few data points it's all guessing. You just don't have the info to know what they are doing and things keep changing and changing.

The only thing I think will remain constant for the next couple years is that Amazon is after market share and low margins--just how they began. Bezo's knows he doesn't need bigger ebook profits right now as Amazon spreads it's tentacles. As always it wants cash flow and market share.

This is the pivotal time for gaining market share, not profit taking. Bezo's is looking at a bigger picture than we can see.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

jackz4000 said:


> I like this^^^ You can keep trying to figure out what Amazon is doing and you will seldom be right for very long. If you are right--things will change...again. With only a few data points it's all guessing. You just don't have the info to know what they are doing and things keep changing and changing.
> 
> The only thing I think will remain constant for the next couple years is that Amazon is after market share and low margins--just how they began. Bezo's knows he doesn't need bigger ebook profits right now as Amazon spreads it's tentacles. As always it wants cash flow and market share.
> 
> This is the pivotal time for gaining market share, not profit taking. Bezo's is looking at a bigger picture than we can see.


If authors are becoming disillusioned with Select (and not saying they are as a whole, just saying for argument's sake), then I'm curious what people think Ammy will do next to maintain and build market share. As more people leave Select (I'm taking a few of my titles off as their Select enrollments expire to go back to SW, where I've been absent), as agency and DRM go by the wayside with increased DoJ scrutiny, and as B&N gains ground due to Microsoft's investment, how do we think Bezos will respond?

Clearly getting in front of these things or hopping on them before they saturate is key. In other words, while recognizing that luck and timing have a lot do do with success, and anyone's guess is really just that -- a guess -- you can't be lucky if you don't try.

My guess is that we'll see Amazon make more and more distinction between Big6 books and the rest of the publishing world, either behind the scenes or more overtly. Bezos will obviously want to keep the glittery, high-priced book publishers and their readers happy, but he won't want to lose indies and small houses either. It'll be an interesting balancing act.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> If authors are becoming disillusioned with Select (and not saying they are as a whole, just saying for argument's sake)...


Wherever this is the case, I think it would be the fault of the authors for not remembering the key fact of any Cool New Thing (tm). That would be that there is no "I Win!" button. The old fashioned way of promoting and pushing a product, no matter how unattractive, is really the only tried and true method of succeeding. Everything else is merely a lottery. Yes, play it for the chance if you like, but don't expect it to pay off in every case.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

BrianKittrell said:


> Wherever this is the case, I think it would be the fault of the authors for not remembering the key fact of any Cool New Thing (tm). That would be that there is no "I Win!" button. The old fashioned way of promoting and pushing a product, no matter how unattractive, is really the only tried and true method of succeeding. Everything else is merely a lottery. Yes, play it for the chance if you like, but don't expect it to pay off in every case.


You make a good point, Brian. It's tantalizing to try and chase every CNT (your TM ), and sometimes it can pay off. My fear is that the traditional modes of promoting are changing rapidly, at least in the details. Yes, it still requires face time and buzz, but the mechanisms for achieving these things are also changing. Press releases don't count for much anymore.


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## BrianKittrell (Jan 8, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> Press releases don't count for much anymore.


You couldn't be any more right (in this context). Press releases are wonderful... if the reporters already know your name. Or if you're reporting something utterly amazing (ala Hocking and $2 million deals). Otherwise, it's really tough to be picked up by any news group.

And they have their reasons, of course. Why report things that aren't newsworthy? It doesn't sell papers.


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## Rex Jameson (Mar 8, 2011)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> Okay, well let's look at this info.
> 
> After giving away 1300 copies, your book probably would have wound up on the first page of the World Literature > Mythology popularity lists yesterday afternoon. Few books sell 1300 copies in a day. In fact, that probably would have put you at #1 or at least 2 in the category--the current top spot in that category is occupied by a book that's #20 in the entire store, but the second book in the category is "only" at #158, and the third is at #261, which only takes somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple hundred sales a day to maintain. 1300 in a day easily tops everyone except that #1 spot. You wouldn't stick at #2 in Mythology for long, but you would probably be on the first page of the category for 2-3 days.
> 
> ...


Well, what I'm saying is that I've done 3-4 Select periods since that March 19th marker, and each did almost double the free downloads that I just did on March 13-14 but with zero post free sales. That's why I was planning on pulling out of Select altogether. The only difference between those 3-4 that failed completely and this one (that I can tell) was that ENT picked up this last one on the last day and the majority of the free downloads happened at the tail end of the promo.

I'm not saying the algorithms haven't changed since March 19th. I've said that all along. I've also agreed that the free downloads are not counting as full paid downloads or even half a paid download for a long time. I'm just trying to figure out how I can use Select's algorithms better so that I'm not completely wasting my time with this exclusivity stuff. I haven't had any borrows this month, which is the first time that's happened to me since I entered the Select program in January, and I was actually surprised I had any post-free sales this time at all.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

undeadwriter said:


> If authors are becoming disillusioned with Select (and not saying they are as a whole, just saying for argument's sake), then I'm curious what people think Ammy will do next to maintain and build market share. As more people leave Select (I'm taking a few of my titles off as their Select enrollments expire to go back to SW, where I've been absent), as agency and DRM go by the wayside with increased DoJ scrutiny, and as B&N gains ground due to Microsoft's investment, how do we think Bezos will respond?


Select is new. Select can change. Bank on it--it will change. In the future who knows how many things will change--but they will. There is zero stasis. Plenty can leave Select, there are nearly 150,000 books in Select, so in a given 90 day period 750,000 books are free if all use their 5 days. Bewildering. At some point you will need and invitation to join.

Agency can still be used, but stores can now discount off their 30% commission. JoS has a formula for it.

It's pointless for me to guess what Bezos will do about anything. I think they will keep doing what they have been doing the last 5 years. Big volume, low margins and market share and cash flow. Take a small piece out of billions in sales and do it everyday. MS and B&N? They have each flopped before. I see their partnership as humorous.

Ever see those super computers that beat every chess champion? They are not looking at the move they are going to make now. They are looking 50 moves ahead all the time. I think Bezos has a couple. No way can I out think that. Maybe grab a few data points that will change.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

Rex,

For the free days you did after March 19, what effect did they have on your Also Bought lists? Did you note any difference compared to what happened to the AB lists for the free days prior to March 19?


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## Robert Bidinotto (Mar 3, 2011)

jackz4000 said:


> Select is new. Select can change. Bank on it--it will change. In the future who knows how many things will change--but they will. There is zero stasis. Plenty can leave Select, there are nearly 150,000 books in Select, so in a given 90 day period 750,000 books are free if all use their 5 days. Bewildering. At some point you will need and invitation to join.
> 
> Agency can still be used, but stores can now discount off their 30% commission. JoS has a formula for it.
> 
> ...


^^^
THIS.

All the strategic second-guessing, tea-leaf readings, speculations, efforts to grok the (ever-fluid) algorithms and tweak tactics accordingly...I think it's mostly misplaced mental energy. Here's what I KNOW, based on experience so far:

* _Amazon, like the rest of the marketplace, changes constantly and unpredictably._ By the time you can get even some vague idea of what's happening and devise some strategy or tactic in response, it's all changed again.

* _A fresh tactic that works for its initial inventor almost immediately stops working for copycats._ That's because a fresh, innovative tactic helps the author's work STAND OUT in the marketplace, thus generating "discoverability." But the minute that _everybody_ begins to copy that same tactic (e.g., 99 cents, Twitter, "free days" via Select, "pulse" promotions, etc., etc.), their books all vanish in the Sea of Similarity again. They no longer stand out as being unique, so the tactic loses its sales punch...and scores of disillusioned writers come here to complain about it.

* _Focusing on responding, rather than creating, subtly fosters a fatalistic mindset._ This is a tough point to communicate, but let me take a stab at it. Each moment that you're focused on writing your book, and marketing it by employing the basic, time-tested principles (e.g., good cover, compelling product description, competitive price, etc.), _you are in control_. You're focused on the factors that you can do something about. But when you spend lots of time dwelling on and worrying about factors that you canNOT control -- such as what's in Jeff Bezos's head, or will the DOJ's antitrust actions have an impact on ebook pricing in 2013 -- you are tacitly reinforcing a "victim" mindset, the feeling that the "fate" of your work is out of your control.

Many factors ARE, in fact, out of your control. But not the most decisive ones, which have to do with _the quality of your product and its marketing presentation_. My biggest sales bumps to date have come from unforeseen circumstances: from Amazon or some media source taking note of my debut novel and casting big spotlights on it. BUT those things occurred, I believe, ONLY because I created a story that appealed to them, and marketed it in ways that would "brand" it to catch their attention.

As authors, _we should try to focus on being actors -- not reactors_. I've been interviewing a host of authors, famous and aspiring, on my blog (www.bidinotto.com). None of the most successful ones have approached their writing and careers in the reactive manner that I frequently see here. Lee Child, for example, told me that he never tried to look ahead and speculate about future reader interests and fads, or write to suit some reader demographic, etc. He just writes his stories, true to his own inner vision, and hopes that they will resonate with readers. And I'd say that he seems to be doing okay at it. I'd bet that most of the most successful authors approached their writing the same way. For example, I can't imagine a J.K. Rowling or Margaret Mitchell or Vince Flynn or Agatha Christie or Amanda Hocking huddling with marketing gurus before they crafted their wildly successful tales. Rather, they all succeeded because they offered something that was creatively UNIQUE. That uniqueness came from within, not from tedious analysis of the ever-changing marketplace and devious strategies to navigate it. And that very uniqueness is what caused them to stand out and be noticed. (John Locke may be somewhat an exception; but even he focused on writing thrillers with a UNIQUE hero, rather than some copycat confection.)

I hate to sound impatient with threads like this one, and I certainly don't mean to diss those who are putting so much time and effort into trying to figure out what works in this Brave New Indie World. I appreciate that quest for understanding. But I think a lot of authors become hopelessly confused -- then demoralized -- over all the conflicting marketing and tactical advice they're reading and hearing, and more than a few just surrender to despair and give up. My hope is that they can refocus their energy and creativity on what matters: on crafting great, imaginative stories, then presenting them to a targeted audience by means of equally creative, non-formulaic marketing.

Let Mr. Bezos worry about his algorithms. Let us give him the kind of stories that his algorithms are designed to notice and promote.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

BrianKittrell said:


> Wherever this is the case, I think it would be the fault of the authors for not remembering the key fact of any Cool New Thing (tm). That would be that there is no "I Win!" button. The old fashioned way of promoting and pushing a product, no matter how unattractive, is really the only tried and true method of succeeding. Everything else is merely a lottery. Yes, play it for the chance if you like, but don't expect it to pay off in every case.


I'm curious what that "old fashioned way of promoting" books is that works so well that it is "tried and true" if we aren't too lazy to use it.

I've been in this business for some years and have yet to see it. I've seen the Big 6 dump big bucks down the toilet on promoting books that didn't work at all. So I'd love to know what has been under my nose all this time that I didn't even know about -- that "tried and true method of succeeding".


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

JRTomlin said:


> I'm curious what that "old fashioned way of promoting" books is that works so well if we aren't too lazy to use it.


Door to Door Mark Twain style. Duh.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

NathanWrann said:


> Door to Door Mark Twain style. Duh.


*hand face*

I should have asked Mr. Twain in the first place.


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## Rex Jameson (Mar 8, 2011)

Terrence OBrien said:


> Rex,
> 
> For the free days you did after March 19, what effect did they have on your Also Bought lists? Did you note any difference compared to what happened to the AB lists for the free days prior to March 19?


The Also Bought lists tend to get nuked or greatly reworked with books that were also free during the period, as people tend to download 4+ books in a bunch by viewing sites like ENT and POI rather than cherry-picking a single free download from their genre of choice. At least, that's what I'm reading in the tea leaves !


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## vrabinec (May 19, 2011)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> My hope is that they can refocus their energy and creativity on what matters: on crafting great, imaginative stories, then presenting them to a targeted audience by means of equally creative, non-formulaic marketing.


What kind of crazy talk is that?


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## Rex Jameson (Mar 8, 2011)

vrabinec said:


> What kind of crazy talk is that?


Sometimes, Robert waxes rational. It's rather annoying.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> All the strategic second-guessing, tea-leaf readings, speculations, efforts to grok the (ever-fluid) algorithms and tweak tactics accordingly...I think it's mostly misplaced mental energy.
> ...
> 
> * _Focusing on responding, rather than creating, subtly fosters a fatalistic mindset._ This is a tough point to communicate, but let me take a stab at it. Each moment that you're focused on writing your book, and marketing it by employing the basic, time-tested principles (e.g., good cover, compelling product description, competitive price, etc.), _you are in control_. You're focused on the factors that you can do something about. But when you spend lots of time dwelling on and worrying about factors that you canNOT control -- such as what's in Jeff Bezos's head, or will the DOJ's antitrust actions have an impact on ebook pricing in 2013 -- you are tacitly reinforcing a "victim" mindset, the feeling that the "fate" of your work is out of your control.
> ...


We each must find the path that works best for our own unique circumstances. I've seen way too many good books that should have been frontlisted get relegated to midlist titles when the next cool thing came along that was thought to be cooler than what was in production already. Writing a good book is a prerequisite for entering the game. From there on out it's luck and strategy. I can't control luck. I can control strategy.

Maybe it's my marketing background or the fact that I'm partly responsible not just for the success of my own titles but for others' titles as well that forces me to look at how to best present our books. That forces me to don the hat of marketer/publicist and to try to understand the market from that perspective.

Simply ignoring the changing market and working on instinct and luck alone works for some. And, of course, those some it works for will come by and tell you they KNOW not focusing on the algorithms works because that's how they've made their money. Then along come the folk who focus on better positioning using the tools available who tell you they KNOW their method works better because their books are consistent bestsellers.

Whether small or large, traditional publishers study the market and play to it. Some of their efforts work, some fail. Sometimes the focus is misplaced, sometimes it reaps huge rewards. It would help immensely to know beforehand what efforts will pay off and which ones won't. But we don't know. And anyone who claims that they KNOW what will work for any book, any author isn't paying attention.

Good, unique books don't always get discovered. Derivative books sometimes go viral. In a market that can't be predicted, there's a place for instinct, a place for luck and a place for strategy. Experimenting with each of them can help us as authors/publishers find the best balance for making our books known.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

Knowledge is power.


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## Robert Bidinotto (Mar 3, 2011)

Hi, Phoenix,

Far be it from me to diminish the importance of marketing to "discoverability." That's not my message, at all.

What I endorse is the kind of marketing that focuses on broader fundamentals, not a fixation on down-in-the-weeds tactics to respond to ever-shifting conditions. What I know about marketing I've learned from guys like Al Ries and Jack Trout in their classics _Positioning_ and _Marketing Warfare_. They focus on those broader fundamentals, and I think authors should, too.

By broader fundamentals, I mean those that pertain to identifying your target audience, proper branding, distinguishing yourself and your work from the competition. Integrating those considerations into your cover, product description, website/blog header, business cards, social media -- all that makes perfect sense. And all that is within the author/publisher's control.

What I'm talking about is the difference between looking at the forest or the trees. I'm a "forest" guy. I think most authors get confused and lose their way when they get stuck amid all the trees. And I think too many of our discussions and fixations are about the trees. That's all.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

I'm actually really enjoying this conversation a lot, and learning. I think a lot of what Robert says does make sense; he's certainly got the weight of established thinkers supporting the suppositions he presents. But my gut feeling tells me we need to think beyond "tried and true." We're in a time of great flux right now, and established memes are suddenly facing extinction while new ones are being born every day.

Trees are static, at least from one day, one week to the next. Social dynamics and "the new marketing" are not.


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## Adam Pepper (May 28, 2011)

Robert,

I really appreciate the sentiment and you make many good points.  However, your career is red hot at the moment, and when you talk about seeing the trees…well frankly, you’re in a totally different forest than I am.  I'm trying desperately to just get a few eyeballs on my product pages.  Amazon has provided me some very powerful tools that give me a chance.  In my view, I’d be a fool not to learn as much as possible about those tools and utilize them as best I can.  Not as a marketing gimmick, and certainly not in place of or at the expense of my work, but as a way to get my work the attention I passionately feel it deserves.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> ^^^
> THIS.
> 
> All the strategic second-guessing, tea-leaf readings, speculations, efforts to grok the (ever-fluid) algorithms and tweak tactics accordingly...I think it's mostly misplaced mental energy. Here's what I KNOW, based on experience so far:
> ...


There we agree. I expect it to undergo sea changes for the forseeable future. There is no point in complaining about it. We have to cope with it.


> * _A fresh tactic that works for its initial inventor almost immediately stops working for copycats._ That's because a fresh, innovative tactic helps the author's work STAND OUT in the marketplace, thus generating "discoverability." But the minute that _everybody_ begins to copy that same tactic (e.g., 99 cents, Twitter, "free days" via Select, "pulse" promotions, etc., etc.), their books all vanish in the Sea of Similarity again. They no longer stand out as being unique, so the tactic loses its sales punch...and scores of disillusioned writers come here to complain about it.


You seem to be saying because strategies have been used before we should totally ignore them, which I disagree with.


> * _Focusing on responding, rather than creating, subtly fosters a fatalistic mindset._ This is a tough point to communicate, but let me take a stab at it. Each moment that you're focused on writing your book, and marketing it by employing the basic, time-tested principles (e.g., good cover, compelling product description, competitive price, etc.), _you are in control_. You're focused on the factors that you can do something about. But when you spend lots of time dwelling on and worrying about factors that you canNOT control -- such as what's in Jeff Bezos's head, or will the DOJ's antitrust actions have an impact on ebook pricing in 2013 -- you are tacitly reinforcing a "victim" mindset, the feeling that the "fate" of your work is out of your control.


So... what? Once our cover and blurb is done we should go sit in a corner and hope? Neither positive nor innovative imo, I'm afraid. Trying to analyze the situation and respond to what it is rather than what it was is HARDLY being a "victim", thank you very much. It is dealing with reality.


> Many factors ARE, in fact, out of your control. But not the most decisive ones, which have to do with _the quality of your product and its marketing presentation_. My biggest sales bumps to date have come from unforeseen circumstances: from Amazon or some media source taking note of my debut novel and casting big spotlights on it. BUT those things occurred, I believe, ONLY because I created a story that appealed to them, and marketed it in ways that would "brand" it to catch their attention.


Like you, my largest sales bumps came from factors I couldn't control and I try to make those more likely with a good novel with attractive packaging, but stopping there does not seem in the least positive.



> As authors, _we should try to focus on being actors -- not reactors_. I've been interviewing a host of authors, famous and aspiring, on my blog (www.bidinotto.com). None of the most successful ones have approached their writing and careers in the reactive manner that I frequently see here. Lee Child, for example, told me that he never tried to look ahead and speculate about future reader interests and fads, or write to suit some reader demographic, etc. He just writes his stories, true to his own inner vision, and hopes that they will resonate with readers. And I'd say that he seems to be doing okay at it. I'd bet that most of the most successful authors approached their writing the same way. For example, I can't imagine a J.K. Rowling or Margaret Mitchell or Vince Flynn or Agatha Christie or Amanda Hocking huddling with marketing gurus before they crafted their wildly successful tales. Rather, they all succeeded because they offered something that was creatively UNIQUE. That uniqueness came from within, not from tedious analysis of the ever-changing marketplace and devious strategies to navigate it. And that very uniqueness is what caused them to stand out and be noticed. (John Locke may be somewhat an exception; but even he focused on writing thrillers with a UNIQUE hero, rather than some copycat confection.)


Again, you are saying or seem to be saying that we should do NOTHING but write a good novel and stick a nice cover on it. We need to understand the changing mechanics as much as we can. Is that reactive? Yes. Being reactive is necessary to surviving in the real world. If I stick my hand into a fire, reaction is essential. The inability to react guarantees not surviving.


> I hate to sound impatient with threads like this one, and I certainly don't mean to diss those who are putting so much time and effort into trying to figure out what works in this Brave New Indie World. I appreciate that quest for understanding. But I think a lot of authors become hopelessly confused -- then demoralized -- over all the conflicting marketing and tactical advice they're reading and hearing, and more than a few just surrender to despair and give up. My hope is that they can refocus their energy and creativity on what matters: on crafting great, imaginative stories, then presenting them to a targeted audience by means of equally creative, non-formulaic marketing.


There will always be authors who give up. There always have been. It is a hard way to make a buck and anyone who tells you anything else is lying. This is one thing I don't expect to change.


> Let Mr. Bezos worry about his algorithms. Let us give him the kind of stories that his algorithms are designed to notice and promote.


I STRONGLY disagree. Pretending that all I need to do is stick a novel on Amazon and the world will discover it rarely works, I don't care how pretty the cover is or how nice the blurb.


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## phil1861 (Dec 22, 2011)

I have puzzled over all of this, the changes, the inability to strategize in the weeds for any length of time (the select way, the price matching way, the price pulsing, etc) and the advice that we all have based on our individual experiences and come to the conclusion that advice is great, the tried and true need to be "tried" and the new fad needs to be experienced but understood to be yesterday's news. 

Cover and blurb, just part of the equation and not in themselves enough if no one sees them. 
Amazon is a moving target so understanding why something works is the first step to using the tool but tools wear out. 
Until you expirement with something you won't understand how or why it is or isn't working any more. The .99 price pulse for example. I had my suspicions that it was no longer a viable means to regain traction in the Amazon algos but until I watched it and tried it I didn't know. Now I do. 
There are no marketplace gurus, only individual anecdotal experiences for what worked and what didn't for "them". If we were all competing for the same pie shaped consumer audience then we might have some common ways to reach that audience. We don't. My audience is not yours and it isn't a zero sum game with one path to the golden sale. 
Blogging and Twitter are missused and overused and Facebook is like being in Amway and never again invited to the family reunion. I still do not know how to use them for me but they do not really work for direct marketing. 

Knowing that the KDP Select joy ride is over (as we understood it) now allows us to readjust our tactics and hopefully instructs those who've not taken the dive yet to ignore all pre March 19 posts about wild success and mega bucks in royalties pouring in.


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## shel (May 14, 2011)

I know that a lot of this thread has been focused on how the algorithms have been changed to efffect free runs, but I believe KOLL is an important part of Amazon's strategy.  

Being able to say 130,000 exclusive titles is a unique selling proposition for consumers, but in addition to that, Amazon has learned that a certain percentage of borrows converts to a sale.  Wasn't there a recent press release that specifically mentioned conversion rates--Deb Geary at 51% or something like that and another author at roughly 30%?  If I dreamed it, which is definitely a possibility, just tell me to go back to sleep.   

But, if I was awake, the value of KOLL shouldn't be underestimated.


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## hydrapublications (Jul 24, 2011)

Thank you for all the information. I have been keeping track of data like this and adding more to my own limited pool is really helpful. It figures that we put 10 titles for free the day they changed the algorithms last week.

It is a lot harder to keep the flow going then it was before. We have had some success with a  few of the titles. but some others not really.

We had one title get picked up by BOTH POI and ENT. its had 8000 downloads and 4 sales....But we also had one that was picked up by both and has had 20000 downloads and 200 sales.


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

I enjoy the algorithm discussions! I remember the early days of commercial websites, when those people who had good SEO (Search Engine Optimization) enjoyed a leg-up over their competitors.

*Re: Price pulsing -- I've noticed that on the same day I drop my prices, I see a little boost in sales, but by the second day, I'm back to my regular volume.* When I increase the price back up to regular, it *seems* like my sales are going down, but it's likely due to being more weeks out from my last Select Freebie day than the price change. I'm trying a 2-week price pulse/sale this time, just for kicks.

My numbers are still low enough to not offer much in the way of statistical analysis, so I'm grateful to hear from others.

Long-term, I can see third-party advertising being the big decider in who succeeds.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

The world is full of things that are beyond my control, but they are not beyond my understanding.  That understanding enables me to manage what I can control to maximize my position. I control my navigation through a world I cannot control.


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## shel (May 14, 2011)

D. said:


> I enjoy the algorithm discussions! I remember the early days of commercial websites, when those people who had good SEO (Search Engine Optimization) enjoyed a leg-up over their competitors.


Oh! I hope my post didn't sound like we shouldn't be considering or discussing how the algorithms work. That's not what I meant -- at all. And I enjoy the algorithm discussions, too. It just seemed to me that because a few posters had voiced things like: well, now they've done it and it's time to opt out of Select. I simply wanted them to also consider how KOLL could be part of the equation when evaluating Select.


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## shel (May 14, 2011)

Terrence OBrien said:


> The world is full of things that are beyond my control, but they are not beyond my understanding. That understanding enables me to manage what I can control to maximize my position. I control my navigation through a world I cannot control.


Agreed.


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## JenniferBecton (Oct 21, 2010)

Thank you to those of you who have taken time to research and opine on the recent and even more recent changes to the Select program. Reading this thread has provided me with valuable data that I'd been lacking.


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

shel said:


> Oh! I hope my post didn't sound like we shouldn't be considering or discussing how the algorithms work. That's not what I meant -- at all. And I enjoy the algorithm discussions, too. It just seemed to me that because a few posters had voiced things like: well, now they've done it and it's time to opt out of Select. I simply wanted them to also consider how KOLL could be part of the equation when evaluating Select.


It is important to consider all the factors. I gave that some thought. Do I get enough borrows to make up for my very modest sales on other retailer sites? Do the borrows translate into more sales?

That is more difficult to evaluate. At the moment, I rather agree with Joe Konrath that the answer is no. But after I leave Select I will closely evaluate the results. A sharp U-Turn is a possibility.


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## scottnicholson (Jan 31, 2010)

90 percent of this is luck and the other 10 percent is pushing your luck based on talent and hard work.

The thing is, when people get lucky, they then tend to think the formula was reversed...


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

shel said:


> Oh! I hope my post didn't sound like we shouldn't be considering or discussing how the algorithms work. That's not what I meant -- at all. And I enjoy the algorithm discussions, too. It just seemed to me that because a few posters had voiced things like: well, now they've done it and it's time to opt out of Select. I simply wanted them to also consider how KOLL could be part of the equation when evaluating Select.


My comment was out-of-the-blue, not meant to be arguing with anyone specific. 

Sometimes I just like to add to the noise! 

GONG GONG GONG I'm banging my little gong.

*I wish there were an EASY button on KDP.* <-- I think this is very quotable!


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## CoraBuhlert (Aug 7, 2011)

Whatever Amazon did to the algorithms may have hurt many Select authors, but it has certainly been good for me. My sales have been going up ever since March, i.e. when Amazon changed the algorithms. I already sold as many books in the first ten days of May as I sold in all of February.

I never joined Select BTW.


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## adanlerma (Jan 16, 2012)

Elizabeth Ann West said:


> Select is one big experiment still for everyone involved, including Amazon.
> 
> When KDP authors outsell the traditional publishers, THEN, THEN we'll be on the radar in regards to the algorithms and how they treat us.


i'm working my way up this thread from way back at the beginning earlier this month, but have read ed robertson's various articles outlining his thoughts and ideas, plus the bloggers that actually lead me to his article, so i'll give myself leeway to not pass up to say, i think elizabeth's point above, in my partial quote, _may_ contain more of what's to be aware and concerned about, at least than i thought would be the case so quickly

but if amazon is adjusting things to fit more appropriately, to also featuring big publishers and their concerns, they may also emulate other things that corps like, say netflix, use, to accomodate readers/viewers, such as an option for a browsing person to notate a comment as not being a review, ie, is more accurately an opinion

another question is, if "borrrows" are available with a $9.99 ebook via a big publisher, would a big publisher and the author "agree" to a pay-out fee of approx $2 for the borrow, vs a sale?

additionally, with microsoft potentially adding barnes & noble's ebook store to windows browsers, and possibly going global, how would _that_ impact things? esp things like select?

all in all, the only thing i know is, i don't know, and to keep creating what matters for me that i can feel is worth sharing via any of these outlets...

and to keep reading these boards  of which some threads i wish i'd found sooner, but at least i'm here now


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## cherylktardif (Apr 21, 2010)

I made over $42,000 from Select in March. And I'm averaging $10,000 a month since, with always a possibility of making more. So I caution people to not jump to conclusions. Amazon is a mystery to everyone except Amazon. No one knows how their algorithms work or what they'll do next.

Cheryl Kaye Tardif
International bestselling author of How I Made Over $42,000 in 1 Month Selling My Kindle eBooks


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

cherylktardif said:


> I made over $42,000 from Select in March. And I'm averaging $10,000 a month since, with always a possibility of making more. So I caution people to not jump to conclusions. Amazon is a mystery to everyone except Amazon. No one knows how their algorithms work or what they'll do next.
> 
> Cheryl Kaye Tardif
> International bestselling author of How I Made Over $42,000 in 1 Month Selling My Kindle eBooks


Congratulations Cheryl! Those are truly awesome numbers.


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## glennlangohr (Nov 15, 2011)

Great info, thanks for posting it. I am still seeing the bump in sales and rankings after a free day when I do a lot of marketing. I am in a small category though and the bump isn't giant or that long lasting, but enough to keep me going with 7 books.


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## Keith Taylor (Mar 12, 2012)

cherylktardif said:


> I made over $42,000 from Select in March. And I'm averaging $10,000 a month since, with always a possibility of making more. So I caution people to not jump to conclusions. Amazon is a mystery to everyone except Amazon. No one knows how their algorithms work or what they'll do next.
> 
> Cheryl Kaye Tardif
> International bestselling author of How I Made Over $42,000 in 1 Month Selling My Kindle eBooks


Good work Cheryl 

p.s. I'm guessing you used the standard copyright template use use for your other books with 'How I made...', right? Maybe it's worth rewording it, so your book doesn't kick off with 'This is a work of fiction...'


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

cherylktardif said:


> I made over $42,000 from Select in March. And I'm averaging $10,000 a month since, with always a possibility of making more. So I caution people to not jump to conclusions. Amazon is a mystery to everyone except Amazon. No one knows how their algorithms work or what they'll do next.
> 
> Cheryl Kaye Tardif
> International bestselling author of How I Made Over $42,000 in 1 Month Selling My Kindle eBooks


If what you're saying is no one outside Amazon knows precisely how the algorithms work, yes, that's probably true. It's very important to remember that there are still unknowns and that Amazon changes all the time.

If what you're saying is it's impossible to examine their store and use inductive reasoning to figure out how it works, then you're wrong. And if you genuinely believe that, it's extremely puzzling why you're selling a book about how other authors can duplicate the success you found through your own examination of Amazon's storefront.


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## MonkeyScribe (Jan 27, 2011)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> If what you're saying is no one outside Amazon knows precisely how the algorithms work, yes, that's probably true. It's very important to remember that there are still unknowns and that Amazon changes all the time.
> 
> If what you're saying is it's impossible to examine their store and use inductive reasoning to figure out how it works, then you're wrong. And if you genuinely believe that, it's extremely puzzling why you're selling a book about how other authors can duplicate the success you found through your own examination of Amazon's storefront.


Hmm, interesting point you make there.


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## adanlerma (Jan 16, 2012)

Robert Bidinotto said:


> Lee Child, for example, told me that he never tried to look ahead and speculate about future reader interests and fads, or write to suit some reader demographic, etc. He just writes his stories, true to his own inner vision, and hopes that they will resonate with readers.


still working my way through eight pages of comments, wow, love this stuff, right or wrong, change or no-change, the inter-intra communication is fantastic reading, thanks you guys

anyways, my second quote-out, from many many i really like, is from robert above (a partial quote, from a nice long comment)

i mean, i know how many writers/artists feel when they say they've been trying for a long time, i've painted since the early 70s, and been writing since the late 70s, and whether because i suck  didn't get lucky, or just haven't been good enough, yet  the reason i've been able to continue with creative work is because i have to, and i can only do that by remaining true enough to myself, despite or in-spite of any fleeting successes _or_ failures

so robert's quote is, for me, _it!_

reading the stuff here, learning digital marketing, pros/cons of select, are secondary, even when important (and i believe they are)

best wishes everyone


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## KaryE (May 12, 2012)

Please accept my apologies if this is the wrong place to post data - but mine looks decidedly odd and I thought the data-crunchers might like to have it.

I'm doing a free promo on my short story today, and my rankings are wacky. If my report is to be believed, I only have 8 downloads, but I'm at #5360 in the free store, #1 in Comic Fiction and #3 in Dark Fantasy.  Far from being too low, these numbers are wildly too high. The only thing I can think is that I also did a free promo about 2 weeks ago, and somehow those numbers are factoring in? During that one, my best Free ranking was about 34,000 and I had about 115 downloads over two days.

I scheduled today's promo on the spur of the moment last night because I saw some same-genre titles going free and I wanted the ride-along for the Also Boughts.

Cheers,

Kary


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

I'll never turn down data. 

I think those numbers are right, actually. Thing is, there are only four free titles in Dark Fantasy at the moment. They're all ranked in order. #1 is #1,774 free, #2 is #2,842, #3 (yours) is #5,360, and #4 is #7,509. The smaller categories are sometimes confusing because there are so few few titles in them you can achieve a really high rank based on very few copies given away. I'm guessing you're probably the only free book in all of Comic Fiction today.

Meanwhile, by total coincidence, I'm doing a one-day giveaway of a novella today and it has.. oh dear. 7 copies downloaded. For a rank of #6,281. Here's a pretty clear indication of just how long the tail is in the Amazon store: 8 downloads catapults you to #5,360. Manage only 7, and you'll waste away at #6,281. (Also, this novella clearly has a visibility problem...)

Your old results sound like the wacky ones. I'm pretty sure there are only about 34,000 titles in the entire store that are free at any one time. With 115 downloads over two days, you should be much higher than #34,000.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

@Edward, may just be you've hit a dead spot in the cosmos (?) or Ammy's really screwing with the algos. I d/l'd Lightless. It looks like a good read. Also Liked and tagged while there. Cheers.
Saul


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## AmberC (Mar 28, 2012)

Make that 8 downloads Edward.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Heh, thanks guys. It normally does a bit better than this, but it's not currently in position to really take advantage of Select--no reviews, so none of the major blogs will list it; no prominent alsobots; no position on any popularity lists where people might find it. Presentation's less than ideal, too--a novella, with a somewhat complicated premise, and I'm thinking the text on the cover may need to be lightened up. May be a sign I need to work on my blurb, too.

But it's also a sign that just not many people are seeing it. Which would further explain why it so rarely sells. Which tells me I need to do something different with it. I suppose this is one of the other areas Select is useful. If you literally can't _give_ your book away, there's either something wrong with it or your attempts to sell it.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

Ed, 

I noticed you changed the cover to "Breakers". I always kinda liked the other one. Plain as it was.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

I liked it too. I thought it was a really clever design. I feel like it didn't convey the genre all that well, though, which seems to be annoyingly important in this business. We'll see if it makes any difference.


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## NathanWrann (May 5, 2011)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> I liked it too. I thought it was a really clever design. I feel like it didn't convey the genre all that well, though, which seems to be annoyingly important in this business. We'll see if it makes any difference.


Let us know how it does. I changed my covers for Dark Matter Heart and From Out of Chaos to be more "genre friendly" (YA Paranormal Thriller) on May 1st. So far sales have been down compared to last month.


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## christinefairchild (Apr 6, 2012)

I'm disappointed to hear that Amazon may have backstabber their Select authors by changing up the rules of the game. But, that's corporate business for you. I DO suspect it has something to do with the DOJ vs. Apple/Big6 suit and winning back the loyalty of the Big6, especially the 3 that settled. I don't mean to sound paranoid, I just think that Amazon is a savvy player. And publishing is the ultimate in gaming.

I just hope that readers and authors overall don't suffer too much. But maybe a little KDP Select revolt would be a good thing.

Thank you again for your hard work here!
Christine M. Fairchild
http://EditorDevil.blogspot.com
The Editor Devil's Guide to DIALOGUE (http://amzn.com/B007K1PZZC)
The Editor Devil's Guide to CHARACTERS (http://amzn.com/B007PTQKXA)


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

christinefairchild said:


> I'm disappointed to hear that Amazon may have backstabber their Select authors by changing up the rules of the game.


Amazon changed the algorithms, not the rules. Amazon set out the rules of Select pretty clearly: 5 days to use for free promo and compensation for borrows. They have not reneged on those. They never promised better placement on the pop lists. They never promised any kind of added visibility. Those were side benefits for Select members for a while, but Amazon never mentioned them nor promised they would continue. No backstabbing involved. The haven't taken anything away from us; rather, they gave us a few nice benefits for a short time. Lagniappe.


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## Lisa Grace (Jul 3, 2011)

I noticed Amazon seems to be dumping in all my orders now mainly overnight. My rankings seem to slip hourly, get a boost in the early morning from the dump, then fall all day long. Could this be a new tweak?


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## dalya (Jul 26, 2011)

LisaGraceBooks said:


> I noticed Amazon seems to be dumping in all my orders now mainly overnight. My rankings seem to slip hourly, get a boost in the early morning from the dump, then fall all day long. Could this be a new tweak?


I had two sales today, and all my books have been free for 2 days. Who knows what that's all about!

Previous to the last few days, though, I was noticing a little bump in the morning when I got up, then no or few sales all day.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Judging by rank updates, reported sales appear to be lagging behind by as many as 5 days for some titles. I emailed KDP about it before I knew this was standard, but they said they wouldn't be back to me on it until the 22nd.


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## jackhowell (May 18, 2012)

My first book and only book went live in the last few hours.  I already chose to join Select and my first free day is tomorrow!  Which basically means the book will go from live to free in about 4 hours.  

If there ever was a litmus test for starting from the ground floor of select -- this is it!  I'll gladly share my numbers if any of you are intersted.  

I can see by these posts that there is a lot of infotmation to take into consideration.


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## Edward W. Robertson (May 18, 2010)

Info? *forces claws to retract*

We're definitely interested. There's a thread titled the MEGA-THREAD that should be just a page or two deeper on this board. That's where we collect Select-based information for easy reference, so please add it there.


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## jackhowell (May 18, 2012)

Edward W. Robertson said:


> Info? *forces claws to retract*
> 
> We're definitely interested. There's a thread titled the MEGA-THREAD that should be just a page or two deeper on this board. That's where we collect Select-based information for easy reference, so please add it there.


Cool -- the free run is tomorrow, Sunday and Monday. It'll be interesting to see if it will even get found tomorrow moring, since it is so new. I'll report the data back to the MEGATHON as we go. Please keep those claws closed Edward!


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## JeanneM (Mar 21, 2011)

I joined Select in Jan and was so excited to have done so well.  But this month...Yikes!  It has been abysmal.  I figured it wouldn't hurt to write Amazon and ask what changed, and they got back to me very quickly...but all they said was "nothing has changed and we have no reports of system problems."  Then a bunch of the usual...thanks for writing etc etc.

Although it is true that I was born in the morning...it wasn't yesterday morning.  LOL  I don't believe them.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

jackhowell said:


> Cool -- the free run is tomorrow, Sunday and Monday. It'll be interesting to see if it will even get found tomorrow moring, since it is so new. I'll report the data back to the MEGATHON as we go. Please keep those claws closed Edward!


Hey, Jack. Congrats on the launch. Yes, please do report on the megathread.

I downloaded your book and plan to read (and, if appropriate, give to my kids as it "sounds" like something they'd like). I would recommend making it clear in your description if this is appropriate for kids. As written, it sounds like the main characters are kids, which might turn away adult readers if this is actually an adult-level book. By the same token, parents may hesitate to buy for their youngsters without something that explicitly states it is appropriate (if it is, of course). Either way, it'll help purchasers who might be on the fence about buying.
Cheers,
Saul


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## BRONZEAGE (Jun 25, 2011)

LisaGraceBooks said:


> I noticed Amazon seems to be dumping in all my orders now mainly overnight. My rankings seem to slip hourly, get a boost in the early morning from the dump, then fall all day long. Could this be a new tweak?


Am not in Select, and try to ignore ranking on the product page except for once a week, but since this thread began have paid more attention. This comment does seem to be the pattern in a given 24 hour period, during the past week anyway.


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

JeanneM said:


> I joined Select in Jan and was so excited to have done so well. But this month...Yikes! It has been abysmal. I figured it wouldn't hurt to write Amazon and ask what changed, and they got back to me very quickly...but all they said was "nothing has changed and we have no reports of system problems." Then a bunch of the usual...thanks for writing etc etc.
> 
> Although it is true that I was born in the morning...it wasn't yesterday morning. LOL I don't believe them.


I've noticed all my sales seem to get reported overnight. I haven't been watching my rankings, though (doctor's orders  ). As far as borrows this month, nothing, and based on the downward trend reported by Ammy, I'd be surprised if overall borrows this month pass 200,000 by much of a margin, which would pay out for each borrow ~$3. Just a guess, of course, and summer may reverse the trend.

As far as sales, I did gangbusters the last week of April and the first week of May. Then until a few days ago, not much. Hoping the bump the past few days keeps building.


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## jackhowell (May 18, 2012)

Saul Tanpepper said:


> Hey, Jack. Congrats on the launch. Yes, please do report on the megathread.
> 
> I downloaded your book and plan to read (and, if appropriate, give to my kids as it "sounds" like something they'd like). I would recommend making it clear in your description if this is appropriate for kids. As written, it sounds like the main characters are kids, which might turn away adult readers if this is actually an adult-level book. By the same token, parents may hesitate to buy for their youngsters without something that explicitly states it is appropriate (if it is, of course). Either way, it'll help purchasers who might be on the fence about buying.
> Cheers,
> Saul


Saul,

I am glad you wrote this! I am going to add a disclaimer right now! It is NOT a good book for kids, it had sexual interaction, rape and quite a few bloody scenes. How should I word my disclaimer? It's by no mean erotica or extreme horror, but I should let people know that is not for kids. (Amazon needs a rating system!) Two of primary characters are in their early twenties, one is in his forties.

Thanks for your input!

BTW -- it went free at midnight (I assume) and it has 38 downloads thus far.

Jack


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## HeatherVivant (Dec 30, 2011)

I'm seeing weird reporting things, like free copies increasing by one or two the last couple of days, nearly 3 weeks after a trial. There may be some sort of catch-up going on.

My (low-end) perspective is that I had a spectacular first two weeks of April for no apparent reason, then almost nothing once May rolled around. Things picked up this week, a bit.  I'm sure it's because I've been busy and done less "marketing", and the fact that I haven't released a new work for some time, but they're constantly tweaking things (including the search result fonts, author page and product pages) and it's very hard to get a feel for what you're doing right or wrong versus what Amazon is doing right or wrong.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> I'm seeing weird reporting things, like free copies increasing by one or two the last couple of days, nearly 3 weeks after a trial. There may be some sort of catch-up going on.


There is a plausible theory that free books are counted only when they are actually downloaded. That would account for free numbers incrementing weeks after the free days.


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## Adam Pepper (May 28, 2011)

Terrence OBrien said:


> There is a plausible theory that free books are counted only when they are actually downloaded. That would account for free numbers incrementing weeks after the free days.


My free count went up by about 50 today from a week old giveaway.

Weird.


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## adanlerma (Jan 16, 2012)

Terrence OBrien said:


> There is a plausible theory that free books are counted only when they are actually downloaded. That would account for free numbers incrementing weeks after the free days.


unless it's changed in the last few weeks  amazon replied to one of my questions about gifting, and said though i paid for them upfront (copies i wanted to gift) they wouldn't count as sales until downloaded (the recipient of the gift can choose to use their monies for something else)

whether this then also applies to free downloadable copies, i'm not sure though

best wishes


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## Saul Tanpepper (Feb 16, 2012)

Adam Pepper said:


> My free count went up by about 50 today from a week old giveaway.
> 
> Weird.


A week?! I've had them come maybe a day or two later. Seeing them always feels like a letdown or a cheat, like they should be paid but aren't.


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## PhoenixS (Apr 5, 2011)

Terrence OBrien said:


> There is a plausible theory that free books are counted only when they are actually downloaded. That would account for free numbers incrementing weeks after the free days.


I've done a LOT of free promos, many with 10,000+ downloads per, and I haven't seen anything to support this theory. I have seen a trickling in of freebies, though, just nothing to tie it to actual customers downloading.



Adam Pepper said:


> My free count went up by about 50 today from a week old giveaway.


I just checked and in the past 4 hours or so I've had 3 books that were free on the 10th and 11th get over 200 downloads each added to their totals (they had 8000 - 11,000 to begin with). I haven't cross-checked all 10 titles that were free yet, but we've seen this kind of catch-up happen before. Others are reporting a few extra catch-up paid sales as well. And we've all noticed various degrees of sales not matching up with rank over the last couple of weeks.

Delayed reporting in the past has usually meant the coding team is working on some new enhancement. The last time we went through this we saw the reports change to where they split out the freebies from the paids. Perhaps something else we've wanted is in the works...


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## Pnjw (Apr 24, 2011)

Just to add weird data to the mix: I've had a book price matched to free for twelve days. I've had a crap ton of free downloads. Over 40,000. But today I had three books added to the paid sales column for that book.  So, either I'm having a few sales show up from over twelve days ago, or there is some weird glitch in a server somewhere where my book wasn't price matched or Amazon is just glitchy because the book is still clearly marked free.


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## Tamara Rose Blodgett (Apr 1, 2011)

*


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## otterific (Jan 31, 2012)

LisaGraceBooks said:


> I noticed Amazon seems to be dumping in all my orders now mainly overnight. My rankings seem to slip hourly, get a boost in the early morning from the dump, then fall all day long. Could this be a new tweak?


I've noticed the exact same thing.


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## Terrence OBrien (Oct 21, 2010)

> unless it's changed in the last few weeks amazon replied to one of my questions about gifting, and said though i paid for them upfront (copies i wanted to gift) they wouldn't count as sales until downloaded (the recipient of the gift can choose to use their monies for something else)
> 
> whether this then also applies to free downloadable copies, i'm not sure though


That is definitely the case with gifts. It's really not under Amazon's control. No company can book a sale until there has been an exchange of goods. Until then, it is similar to a liability. Amazon owes a debt, and it pays that debt when it delivers the book to the recipient. The accounting on these things is still evolving, but the "exchange of goods or services" rule has been around for a long time.


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## adanlerma (Jan 16, 2012)

Terrence OBrien said:


> That is definitely the case with gifts. It's really not under Amazon's control. No company can book a sale until there has been an exchange of goods. Until then, it is similar to a liability. Amazon owes a debt, and it pays that debt when it delivers the book to the recipient. The accounting on these things is still evolving, but the "exchange of goods or services" rule has been around for a long time.


good point, "'exchange of goods or services' rule has been around for a long time..."

shows some business aspects have been and will be the same, digital or otherwise; kinda reassuring ;-)


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