# Will print books ever go obsolete?



## Oliver Sands (Mar 20, 2012)

We have all read or heard about the demise of print books, vanquished by the proliferation of e-readers and e-books. However, as USATODAY reports, even as the sales of e-books doubled from 10% of the overall market to 20% in 2011, print books still account for about 80% of the market. While there are many advantages to reading e-books, one main disadvantage to me is that I feel that the e-books that I purchase do not belong to me. For example, unlike print books where you can lend to anyone at any time, lending of an e-book is usually restricted by the author or the publisher.

That begs the question: Will print books ever go obsolete?


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## acellis (Oct 10, 2011)

No, I still read print, and I always will! Just not as often as I used to.


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## pawsplus (Mar 31, 2009)

IMO yes, eventually they will. But it will be a while--decades at least.


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## Jan Strnad (May 27, 2010)

Come the Apocalypse (nuclear, viral, asteroid striking Earth, zombies, whatever) we'll all be returning to print books. Admittedly, some of us will be burning them for heat....


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## jabeard (Apr 22, 2011)

Well, yes, they'll go obsolete in the sense they are no longer the main form used to deliver certain types of information, stories, et cetera. 

I don't think they'll disappear. I bet even in 2332 when the cyber-zombie-spider-aliens rule the planet and we're all connected to the matrix 23 hours a day that they'll be at least a niche market in print books.


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## Oliver Sands (Mar 20, 2012)

Let us take picture books, for example.  They do not sell well on e-books.  Moreover, I cannot imagine a parent giving his/her child an e-reader due to the potential injury that can occur if it falls and breaks.  On top of that, a picture book can be a very large file (not easy to be electronically delivered) due to the number of pictures it may contain.  My guess is that print books like picture books are here to stay.


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## jabeard (Apr 22, 2011)

Oliver Sands said:


> Let us take picture books, for example. They do not sell well on e-books. Moreover, I cannot imagine a parent giving his/her child an e-reader due to the potential injury that can occur if it falls and breaks. On top of that, a picture book can be a very large file (not easy to be electronically delivered) due to the number of pictures it may contain. My guess is that print books like picture books are here to stay.


I used to think that myself, but my own experiences with my kids have changed my mind.

We have an iPad. We originally bought it for some specialty apps to help out our autistic daughter who has severe communications problems. Because of the risk, we bought a protective case for it (heck the thing's been dropped down the stairs and it was okay). My son (3-year-old) uses it a lot. It has all sorts of books (both interactive, non-interactive) on it that he loves. He also has plenty of regular picture books, too, but I don't think he'd care particularly if they were all on some electronic device.

Not that large of a files really. A few megabytes is nothing to deliver if it's event that big.

Prices are only dropping on color readers. So, I'm not so certain picture books are particularly protected other than those with direct sensory elements.

Rugged electronics for kids are common already. My daughter loves music, but she also tends to throw things. So there's no way I'd ever give her something like an iPod, but we did buy here this rubber-covered MP3 player that can take quite a beating (and has).

Now a related issue is that this, of course, requires access to the tech, resources, internet, et cetera.

That, however, in the end is also somewhat irrelevant even though it's important from a general societal/world balance digital divide sense. The cold reality is trends are driven by money more than anything else. Buying trends has already been a bit of an issue in the children's book field.

Picture books have actually been a rather suffering market segment for years. I remember reading several articles last year and the year before about this in the NYT, Publisher's Weekly, and a few other places. Various picture book groups have tried to organize to reverse the trend. One of the big reasons is a tendency for parents to push children into chapter books earlier. All of this suggests picture books are being threatened even absent any electronic replacement.

Shrinking margins and reduced print runs as well, but that's kind of hitting all segments. It wouldn't take much momentum over the next decade or two to knee-cap picture books.

My question is how many people truly are so in love with the feel and smell, et cetera, of books that they'll never join the e-book train regardless of the form of the reader. I don't think it's as huge as some physical book proponents suggest, but I do think it's a pretty decent chunk of the reading population. Then again, every generation people become more and more comfortable with technology. So if the number is something like say 20% today (I'm just pulling that out of thin air), maybe in thirty years it'll only be 2%.

I really do feel, though, even if we developed some sort of reliable neuro-upload technology for stories that they'll always be a segment out there wanting to read physical books.


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## Oliver Sands (Mar 20, 2012)

jabeard has a point.  I always imagined that we will still have bookstores in the future. But instead of print books, they will have electronic books to choose from.  They will be in cases like DVDs. That may happen if the big publishers are still fighting with Amazon.  I can see B&N going that way.


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## Clockwork Kindle (Mar 20, 2012)

As time goes on, technology will improve and make paper books obsolete. However, there will still be a niche market for them and as such they will still be sold on a limited basis, just as vinyl records are today.


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## mooshie78 (Jul 15, 2010)

They'll be less used, but won't go away.  Some things just need to be in print, and it's a more durable way to store information than digital files that can easily be lost, deleted, corrupted etc.


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## montereywriter (Mar 17, 2012)

mooshie78 said:


> They'll be less used, but won't go away. Some things just need to be in print, and it's a more durable way to store information than digital files that can easily be lost, deleted, corrupted etc.


Totally agree with this....


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## Kathelm (Sep 27, 2010)

For fiction, maybe.  I don't see print ever dying out for reference material, though.


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

"Ever" is a long time. I do suspect technology will continue to improve. For the next decade it really depends how many more readers adopt ereaders and how many ebooks they buy. Paper books are great for non-fiction and books with photos etc especially art, history and science etc.

Five years from now I would not be surprised if paper had 50% of the market, with ebooks prevailing in fiction. I have to consider POD paper books and sales of POD have been rocketing the last couple years.

Ebooks are great for avid fiction readers, not all readers.


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## balaspa (Dec 27, 2009)

I hope not.  Although I love ebooks and my Kindle, I still also love going into bookstores and libraries and holding an actual book in my hand.  I think there is room for both in this world and I hope they can co-exist.


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## KTaylor-Green (Aug 24, 2011)

balaspa said:


> I hope not. Although I love ebooks and my Kindle, I still also love going into bookstores and libraries and holding an actual book in my hand. I think there is room for both in this world and I hope they can co-exist.


This. Took the words right out of my mouth.....er....keyboard.

Also, there are some who will never go the ereader route and I would hate to think that choice would be taken away.


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## Jorja Tabu (Feb 6, 2012)

Almost word for word, my thoughts exactly... I really hope not! I _love _books.


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## jwest (Nov 14, 2011)

I don't think so, but they might well end up as a collectable rather than to go-to format. .


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## flipside (Dec 7, 2011)

Not for me, especially since eReaders aren't prevalent here (not even the Kindle is considered cheap here by any means).


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## VannaSmythe (Feb 28, 2012)

Even if print books become obsolete it won't happen any time soon, in my opinion.  There is still someting very intangible about digital books, compared to print copies, and until that mentality starts to change, I doubt print books will die out.  Just my thoughts on the matter


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## nathanieltimothy (Mar 9, 2012)

i totally agree with your statement thanks for sharing such a nice post


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## 4eyesbooks (Jan 9, 2012)

No, especially not in my genre.  I think kids really like the feeling of holding a physical book and really studying all of the pictures if it is illustrated.  I think there will always being a market of some sort for print books.


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## Elaine Ash (Mar 22, 2012)

Hi Oliver, I don't believe print will ever be obsolete. As a book editor, I have a foot in both worlds between digital and print. The trend I see is that print books will become fancier, more ornate. There will always be a market for fine books with high quality paper and beautiful illustrations. I love my Kindle and I love my print books. I suppose digital will evolve until illustrations are just as good as print or better, but in my opinion, the coffee table book will never leave us.


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## Beatriz (Feb 22, 2011)

Oliver Sands said:


> We have all read or heard about the demise of print books, vanquished by the proliferation of e-readers and e-books. However, as USATODAY reports, even as the sales of e-books doubled from 10% of the overall market to 20% in 2011, print books still account for about 80% of the market. While there are many advantages to reading e-books, one main disadvantage to me is that I feel that the e-books that I purchase do not belong to me. For example, unlike print books where you can lend to anyone at any time, lending of an e-book is usually restricted by the author or the publisher.
> 
> That begs the question: Will print books ever go obsolete?


I don't think print books will ever go obsolete. Nothing will ever change the magic of a print book in your library. We just have new options today, that's all. It's the same as saying regular phones will become obsolete and people will only use cell phones. Some do, to save money but it's never, ever the same and so far regular phones are still very much in existance.


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## patrickt (Aug 28, 2010)

Bought a scroll lately? How about a handwritten and illustrated illuminated volume? 

Of course paper books will become obsolete. They will be collectors items.


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## mooshie78 (Jul 15, 2010)

patrickt said:


> Bought a scroll lately? How about a handwritten and illustrated illuminated volume?
> 
> Of course paper books will become obsolete. They will be collectors items.


I don't see it happening in my lifetime. I see ebooks taking a huge share of the fiction/leisure reading market.

But prints just superior for any type of reference material, anything you need to highlight, mark up, jot notes on it (even touch screen tablets like my iPad stink compared to paper for that stuff) etc. Books offered clear advantages over scrolls, printing presses over handwriting etc. Ebooks have some advantages for reading--especially for any type of linear one page forward at a time text only reading--but clear disadvantages for other types of reading/information processing.

At least that's my personal take on it. But that's also after spending 30 years or so using paperbooks and printouts for those types of tasks. Maybe that stuff will go away after a few generations when people aren't engrained into using paper for those types of learning and reference tasks. I'll be sticking with paperbooks for that type of work as long as I can!


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## manhattanminx (Mar 10, 2012)

Good question.

I suspect print books will last for a good long time, but their popularity will decrease as generations die off and the proliferation of the e-reader increases. I love print, the romance of holding a book in my hand, the musty papery smells, but I also enjoying reading on my Kindle.


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## SuzanneRock (Jul 8, 2011)

I don't think that they will ever be obsolete, but I do think that with time, they will become more like collectors items than the standard. People might buy print editions of the classics or of their favorite authors, but the majority of their book buying will be electronic.


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## montereywriter (Mar 17, 2012)

I hope they don't. But I fear they might. Look at other media (audio cassettes, 8-tracks, vinyl, etc.). <bites fingernails>


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## mooshie78 (Jul 15, 2010)

montereywriter said:


> I hope they don't. But I fear they might. Look at other media (audio cassettes, 8-tracks, vinyl, etc.). <bites fingernails>


But also look at CDs being around for like 30 years and fighting off higher quality discs like DVD-A SACD etc. over the years. MP3s have ate into MP3 sales, but you can still find pretty much any album you want on CD.


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## Paul Dennett (Feb 29, 2012)

Without a shadow of a doubt.  They'll go the way of the horse and cart, the well and the typewriter:  they will only exist in very poor countries and as collectors' items/antiques.


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## KirstenM (Feb 2, 2011)

I do think it's possible that print books will re-emerge as a luxury/collectible item. There's a trend right now, for instance, for certain retailers to use print books as decor -- picture a clothing store with oak fixtures made to look like old timey bookshelves. Print books are already being seen as a certain kind of status symbol. 

I wouldn't be surprise if we see something analogous to the slow food movement. People will choose print because of what the choice says about their values. 

Also, the industry is still in flux; and there are still a loooot of people who don't own ereaders, and it's also possible that some of the ereader love affair will rub off. For instance, what if the industry starts to pull planned obsolescence tricks? Having lived through the vinyl-tape-CD-mp3 years, I for one refuse to spend another dime to rebuild my music collection around a new delivery format. So if my Kindle bites the dust one day and none of the titles I've already purchased are compatible with whatever new ereaders are on the market, it might push me to go back to print.

Two other possible factors. One is that there are so many used print books out there. I don't know if anyone has ever tried to estimate how many, but it's a lot -- trad publishers, last I knew, were putting out something around a quarter million new titles/year. You could spend dozens of lifetimes reading used print books if you wanted to. So it's not just a question of "will print books ever go obsolete" but also "what's going to happen in the used print book market." 

And print publishers could still pull a rabbit out of the hat. For example. Once, for a blog post, I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations to see how much mid 20th century pulp fiction titles would cost in today's dollars. Answer: less than $2/title. So imagine if the print industry figured out how to get its costs back down to what they were 60-70 years ago, and it started putting out paperbacks priced at $1.50 each. 

One of the Kindle's value props is that once you've invested in the reader your books are less expensive. What if print found a way to compete on price? It might totally shake up the market . . .


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## QuantumIguana (Dec 29, 2010)

"Ever" is an awfully long time, and "obsolete" is a little vague, but paper books will be around for a long time. It's not like vinyl, reel to reel, cassettes or 8-track vs. CD and MP3. If you're listening to a good quality vinyl record, you might not be able to tell if you are listening to vinyl or CD. The listening experience is essentially the same. A typewriter offers no advantages ofer a word processor.

But there are differences between the experience of a paper books and e-books. The most obvious is that it is clear whether you are reading a paper book or reading an e-book, and some readers prefer the experience of reading from a paper book. Paper books do have advantages. They require no power. They require no technical expertise. If a child chews up a paper book, you aren't out the cost of an e-reader. Children's books are one area where paper will surivive. Prisons are another, it seems much more reasonable to give prisoners paper books than e-readers. Bibles and hymnals are one area where paper books will survive, and that alone is enough to keep the presses running. And paper books look good on your bookshelf. Don't underestimate that. People often buy their favorite books in a collector's version that looks good on the shelf. The books on your shelf send a message to people of who you are. During the Rennaisance, the new rich would often buy manions that came with complete libraries. They might be illiterate, but it was a must to have a well-stocked library to impress guests. My books are part of the decor of my house, it wouldn't be the same without them. When I am in someone's house, and I see that there are no books, it doesn't make a good impression with me.

I think that paper books have a much diminished share of the market, but I don't think it is going away, at least not for a long time.


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## montereywriter (Mar 17, 2012)

I truly believe paper books will fall by the wayside. The convenience of having your entire library at your fingertips with an eBook (Kindle, Kindle Fire, iPad, iBooks, etc.) is just overwhelmingly appealing to the younger generation (and some of the middle aged like myself). And if you finish an eBook, you can simply download a new one (instantly) and start reading. Whereas with paper books you have to bring along all the titles you might want to read (How much do airlines charge for luggage weight now?), and if you finish the ONE book you brought with you on vacation, you need to go find a bookstore (somewhere!) and hope they have a new title you'll like.


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## AbigailFero (Mar 23, 2012)

I think they surely will become obsolete. Technology moves forward though I will certainly miss big bookstores full of paper books you can pick up and look at and flip through!


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## purplesmurf (Mar 20, 2012)

I don't think they will become 100% obsolete. As others have said I feel they will become more for collectors and poorer countries where they don't have access to internet and as much technology. Someone mentioned what will happen to all the used books, and I feel they will start donating them to other countries (if they aren't already). Look at all the different places ebooks are starting to break in such as colleges and elementary through high school. Why have a student carry around several pounds of books when they can carry everything on a small ipad or kindle like device? I'd say in the next 20 to 30 years you won't see any children/college student bringing home any paper textbooks unless it is a workbook where it must be written in.


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## Jan Strnad (May 27, 2010)

As long as there are railroads and riverboats, there will be printed books.

(Not that there's a direct link. Just saying that print books had their heyday and now, even though their star is fading, books will still be around and people will still love them for a very long time, certainly much longer than *I* will be around, just as people still love railroads and riverboats even though they are no longer the preeminent forms of transportation and commerce they once were.)


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## jackz4000 (May 15, 2011)

Jan Strnad said:


> As long as there are railroads and riverboats, there will be printed books.
> 
> (Not that there's a direct link. Just saying that print books had their heyday and now, even though their star is fading, books will still be around and people will still love them for a very long time, certainly much longer than *I* will be around, just as people still love railroads and riverboats even though they are no longer the preeminent forms of transportation and commerce they once were.)


Actually railroads ship more tonnage than ever before, they are alive and well with increases each year, both in the US and worldwide and especially China where freight trains can be 5 miles long. In the US alone 42% of all shipping is by rail. They will not be fading away any time soon. But today trucks carry most of the shipping and railroads no longer have the eminence the once had. Before trucks railroads were king.

But they are still hanging in there nicely. That's why Buffet spent $5 Billion for his own.

Ebooks? They will grow and then slow down. Mostly avid readers will use them. Not everyone is an avid reader and in a couple years ebooks will hit the saturation point for a while. Maybe there are 70-80 million avid readers in US and a like amount don't care about reading at all and then we have the gray area of those who read a few books a year. Paper books will do fine for the next decade unless there is a surge in readers and how much they read.


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## JFHilborne (Jan 22, 2011)

I doubt they'll disappear. As popular as e-readers are, I still more people with paperbacks than e-readers.


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## Kay Bratt (Dec 28, 2011)

I hope they don't. 

I love my Kindle (well, I love the one I gave away the most but the Fire is okay). But when I treat myself and/or splurge, it is for a print book. To me I am able to really take the writing in and savor it with a real book in my hand. I don't know why, it is just that way. I tell my husband all the time, don't buy me flowers or chocolate. Just buy me books.


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## thwaters (Dec 12, 2011)

Dang, I hope not!  I ADORE print books.  But, sometimes those younger whipper snappers among us alter society in ways I don't really want to go.  I have a feeling that print books will always be around to some degree, but the jury is still out on just how relevant they'll become.  However, I never thought I'd see the day when vinyl records and electric typewriters reappeared.  My hope is that future generations will always see the beauty in print books.


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## Neil Ostroff (Mar 25, 2011)

Not totally, especially coffee table books. But I think books for entertainment reading will all go electronic.


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## glennlangohr (Nov 15, 2011)

I don't think books in print will die out completely. However, they will continue to fall to digital due to the price, easy storage without clutter and instant gratification.


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## HeidiHall (Sep 5, 2010)

Jan Strnad said:


> Come the Apocalypse (nuclear, viral, asteroid striking Earth, zombies, whatever) we'll all be returning to print books. Admittedly, some of us will be burning them for heat....


I've just spent the entire weekend watching The Walking Dead... so while I would normally scoff at apocalyptic predictions, I hope print never goes away. If the zombies take over and we're left without a way to charge our kindles, nooks, etc., well, there better be a bookstore I can raid until I get my solar-powered generator up and running!


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## JRTomlin (Jan 18, 2011)

Jan Strnad said:


> Come the Apocalypse (nuclear, viral, asteroid striking Earth, zombies, whatever) we'll all be returning to print books. Admittedly, some of us will be burning them for heat....


You know how to build a manual printing press? 

I expect print books to become a niche market, but not become obsolete.


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## montereywriter (Mar 17, 2012)

glennlangohr said:


> I don't think books in print will die out completely. However, they will continue to fall to digital due to the price, easy storage without clutter and instant gratification.


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## SSantore (Jun 28, 2011)

I certainly hope not!      

But who knows?  Borders is dead.  A local bookstore chain in my state that had about twenty stores is closing all their stores.  I love books and have boxes of them stored because I have no room on my shelves for them.  BUT--I have a Kindle, have had one for almost a year and I love reading on it, too.  I never ever thought I would be reading books on an e-reader, but this die-hard, book-loving, grandmother has a Kindle and uses it frequently.  I do still buy books, but not near as many as I used to.


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## brianjanuary (Oct 18, 2011)

Even as an author of Kindle novels, I still enjoy a printed book. Each medium has its own rewards and satisfactions, as well as limitations (my collection of old paperbacks are falling apart). I think what will happen is the popular works such as novels will go completely e in the near future, but coffee-table type books will still be published in the traditional manner.


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## CarlPurdon (Sep 7, 2011)

I think there will always be a place for print books. As much as I love my Kindle, there is still nothing like holding a book above my chest at bedtime. I also enjoy walking past my bookshelf and seeing my favorites. You can't do that with an e-reader.


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## D. Nathan Hilliard (Jun 5, 2010)

Nope. But I think the market for them will keep shrinking to the point that one day they will all be print on demand. They still make good gifts and stuff though. And there will always be readers out there who prefer books on paper.


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## flipside (Dec 7, 2011)

montereywriter said:


> I hope they don't. But I fear they might. Look at other media (audio cassettes, 8-tracks, vinyl, etc.). <bites fingernails>


I'm more worried about eBook formats for that. What will be the prevalent format ten years from now? Will it be able to read the eBooks I bought today? (eBooks have been around for more than a decade and backward compatibility is an issue. Print books don't have that problem.)


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## CarlPurdon (Sep 7, 2011)

flipside said:


> I'm more worried about eBook formats for that. What will be the prevalent format ten years from now? Will it be able to read the eBooks I bought today? (eBooks have been around for more than a decade and backward compatibility is an issue. Print books don't have that problem.)


Very good point. Will there be such a thing as a classic that was only available in eBook format? It's hard to image someone going into their attic a century down the road and uncovering one of grandpa's old eBooks.


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## MEPurfield (Mar 3, 2011)

I hope not. I still buy limited run signed books and i love them.  

mike


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## Harry Shannon (Jul 30, 2010)

I still love 'em


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## WynneChanning (Jun 2, 2012)

Here's what former Random House CEO Alberto Vitale has to say about print books:

"Print is not going to go away, print is going to stay. But print will become more precious. In other words, hardcover books will be better produced, better printed, better bound and much more expensive."

- From an interview on this blog: http://www.thepassivevoice.com/06/2012/ex-rh-ceo-alberto-vitale-sill-has-a-lot-to-say-about-publishing/


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## JFHilborne (Jan 22, 2011)

I've switched from 99% Kindle to 50/50 Kindle/print. I don't see print books ever disappearing.


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## Betsy the Quilter (Oct 27, 2008)

JFHilborne said:


> I don't see print books ever disappearing.


the scrollmakers said something similar. 

I read 99.9% Kindle/ebook

Betsy


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## Shaun4 (Jun 29, 2012)

WynneChanning said:


> Here's what former Random House CEO Alberto Vitale has to say about print books:
> 
> "Print is not going to go away, print is going to stay. But print will become more precious. In other words, hardcover books will be better produced, better printed, better bound and much more expensive."


This. I have several DC comics absolute editions. $75 for a book and absolutely amazing quality.


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## metal134 (Sep 2, 2010)

I think yes.  Here's the thing.  I see people saying there will always be some kind of niche market and this and that, but you guys aren't thinking very far into the future.  The question isn't whether they will be obsolete in the next few hundred years, the questions is will the EVER be obsolete.  Ever is a LONG time.  Yes, in the 2300's or 2500's, there will probably be some kind of niche market for printed books.  But you know, 500 years, as long as it sounds, is a short amount of time.  What about in 10,000? 1,000,000?  Assuming we're still here, I doubt that there will still be people pining for print books in the year 1,200,000.


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## CraigInOregon (Aug 6, 2010)

Well, look at it this way: there are still people who prefer vinyl records to CDs.

And folks who prefer CDs to MP3s.

Likewise, print will never go obsolete, and shouldn't.

But over time, I do think print will become the less-dominant delivery format.

I am mostly converted to digital reading, with the exception of reference materials. That kind of stuff, for me, will always be more appealing in print format.


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## charlotteunsworth (Jul 1, 2012)

patrickt said:


> Bought a scroll lately? How about a handwritten and illustrated illuminated volume?
> 
> Of course paper books will become obsolete. They will be collectors items.


Not bought a scroll or a handwritten book.. I have, though, bought very beautiful hardback books and children's books like The Gruffalo because they have those similar features but have been created in a more easy-to-manufacture way that's less labour intensive.

E-books don't have the same permanence as physical books and there is something about having the physical copy - humans seem to be hoarders by nature, and I love having bookshelves. It's the same reason I will buy boxsets of dvds instead of simply watching them on netflix; I want the physical copy as well as the electronic experience.

They also, from an educational perspective, lack at the moment the ability to effectively annotate - using a tablet or pc you can highlight and add notes, but that's not as easy to do in a classroom as give a copy and start underlining. I expect that will change in time, though.


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## metal134 (Sep 2, 2010)

CraigInTwinCities said:


> Well, look at it this way: there are still people who prefer vinyl records to CDs.
> 
> And folks who prefer CDs to MP3s.
> 
> ...


But as I pointed out, you're still thinking short term. Yeah, there are still folks who prefer vinyl. But in historical terms, vinyl records haven't been around very long at all. Only about 100 years. That is nothing. So the fact that it's still around after 100 years doesn't mean much. Print will be around for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. But again, the question isn't print will be obsolete within the next few thousand years, but will it EVER be obsolete. Do you guys really think that if mankind (or whatever we may evolve into) is still around in 1,000,000 years there will still be print books?


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## CraigInOregon (Aug 6, 2010)

metal134 said:


> But as I pointed out, you're still thinking short term. Yeah, there are still folks who prefer vinyl. But in historical terms, vinyl records haven't been around very long at all. Only about 100 years. That is nothing. So the fact that it's still around after 100 years doesn't mean much. Print will be around for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. But again, the question isn't print will be obsolete within the next few thousand years, but will it EVER be obsolete. Do you guys really think that if mankind (or whatever we may evolve into) is still around in 1,000,000 years there will still be print books?


Well, now you're just getting silly.

By that standard, humanity hasn't even stood the test of time.

I was operating in the world of reasonable definitions, LOL


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## metal134 (Sep 2, 2010)

CraigInTwinCities said:


> Well, now you're just getting silly.
> 
> By that standard, humanity hasn't even stood the test of time.
> 
> I was operating in the world of reasonable definitions, LOL


How is it silly? What I think is silly is that you only look to the relatively immediate future and that qualifies as NEVER for you. At what point in the future does it go from "reasonable" to "silly"? When discussing the concept of ever, there's no such thing as reasonable definitions, otherwise your making a argument contrary to the whole concept.


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## Katie Salidas (Mar 21, 2010)

WynneChanning said:


> Here's what former Random House CEO Alberto Vitale has to say about print books:
> 
> "Print is not going to go away, print is going to stay. But print will become more precious. In other words, hardcover books will be better produced, better printed, better bound and much more expensive."
> 
> - From an interview on this blog: http://www.thepassivevoice.com/06/2012/ex-rh-ceo-alberto-vitale-sill-has-a-lot-to-say-about-publishing/


Very true. Print will never go out of style. There will always be the "collectibility" factor to it. Which of course means that there will be higher cost for those collectors items. I buy more ebooks than I do print but there are certain books that I must have for my collection and those I am willing to pay the premium for.


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## CEaston (Jan 23, 2012)

I fear it's possible that print books may one day become obsolete as far as entertainment for adults. I could even see textbooks disappearing from high schools and colleges within the next couple of decades, colleges being first. I can't imagine a world in which there are no illustrated storybooks for children, though, or where kids learn to read from a screen instead of a printed page.


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## Amera (May 22, 2011)

As others have said, I think it's more likely they'll become a luxury/collector's edition item. They already are in some places of the world (where space/storage/cost are all prohibitive).


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## Thaddeus White (Jun 20, 2012)

No.

Artbooks, for example, work better as real rather than e-books. I also prefer the feel of a real book, and fantasy/history books with maps are better full-size rather than with the smaller eReader screen. 

However, eBooks do have some massive advantages of their own. Space is the biggest one for me, but they also tend to be cheaper and can be delivered almost instantly. I think we'll continue to see a rise in the proportion of books sold electronically but it won't go on forever and print books will retain a healthy share of the market.


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## charlotteunsworth (Jul 1, 2012)

flipside said:


> I'm more worried about eBook formats for that. What will be the prevalent format ten years from now? Will it be able to read the eBooks I bought today? (eBooks have been around for more than a decade and backward compatibility is an issue. Print books don't have that problem.)


Then again, the up side is that ebooks can offer reprint versions of books that nobody else would use - I had a nightmare finding editions of victorian fiction for my dissertation that were horrendously expensive; they might well be available much cheaper as ebooks now.


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## charlotteunsworth (Jul 1, 2012)

Betsy the Quilter said:


> the scrollmakers said something similar.
> 
> I read 99.9% Kindle/ebook
> 
> Betsy


And we're still printing books, they've just changed shape a bit....


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## Tony Richards (Jul 6, 2011)

Harry Shannon said:


> I still love 'em


Me too. Kindle is just easier to carry around when traveling.


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## Tony Richards (Jul 6, 2011)

What more and more publishers are doing these days -- incidentally -- is putting out new novels in ebook form first, and only releasing a print version _if_ they do well in the earlier format. So paper books aren't going to disappear any time soon, but the nature of that market is going to change hugely, with Kindle readers determining what's hot and what's not.


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## seanjoyce (Jun 1, 2012)

I'm quite certain that there will at least be 'Print-on-demand' schemes for a very long time to come. I still like to purchase the odd print book in addition to the titles gathering on my kindle, and I suspect I always will. Plus, I love looking at my physical book collection on a bookcase. E-readers are great in their own way, but they can't simulate that.


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## DavidFWeisman (Jun 10, 2012)

I think there will always be a place for them, just as speech never became obsolete despite the many advantages of writing. Hopefully they will become collectibles, easier to dust than beanie babies or cabbage patch kids. I hope someday to produce a beautifully illustrated hardcover of my book, and sell it to people who already own my e-books. And the odds are better than my wife winning millions in the lottery, right?


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## jbcohen (Jul 29, 2011)

Back in my undergraduate days I took classes in rhetoric which is the science of argument.  One of the things that I was taught was to make an argument from definition and Miriam and Webster was always the ref of definitions, in other words what Miriam and Webster said a word meant is what in meant.  The word obsolete in Miriam and Webster means - No longer in print or no longer useful.  According to this definition it will be a long time before printed books are obsolete since they are still being massed produced on large scales.  However, personally I extend that def intion to include obsolete things being those that are no longer being produced and records and 45s are most definitely obsolete since no one produces them any longer as well as cassette tapes, eight track cassettes, cassette decks and eight track tape players.  I would venture that CDs will eventually go obsolete since they sometimes suffer from the same problem that killed records, they can get scratched.  MP3s always have the advantage that they don't degrade over time like CDs and records can, how do you turn off a bit, can't be done its either on or off it can't be partly on or off.

Although ebooks can do a lot of neat tracks that printed ones can I do not currently see them going obsolete as yet.  For signs that printed books are going obsolete I watch teenagers and see if they are excluding printed books and reflexively turning to entirely ebooks and they are not as yet.  Perhaps in a few decades they will but not as yet.  

My generation came up late in the era of the records, we shunned the record in favor of the cassette tapes, eight tracks were long dead by the time we got to be teens, since they were a lot more versatile and did not scratch, we ditched the cassettes when CDs came around and started walking along with the CD based walkman.  MP3s came a long a little too late for my generation however I can see some of the generation after me seems to be transitioning to MP3s so I see little life left for the old CDs.  Ebooks simply have not replaced there printed counterparts among the teens of today.  I think that its going to be a while before the ebook replaces the printed but hopefully it won't be for long.


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## Mike D. aka jmiked (Oct 28, 2008)

jbcohen said:


> However, personally I extend that def intion to include obsolete things being those that are no longer being produced and records and 45s are most definitely obsolete since no one produces them any longer as well as cassette tapes, eight track cassettes, cassette decks and eight track tape players.


Vinyl records are not exactly obsolete. They are still being produced and sold. There has been a resurgence of popularity in the last 5-6 years, and several turntable manufacturers have spooled some production lines back up. If you go to Amazon and search for "vinyl records", you will come up with quite a list, including a lot of recent releases.

I'm one of those guys who was an casual audiophile back in the days, and I lament the loss of good quality recordings for the convenience of MP3s. Having been an amateur musician for 50+ years, the sound is important to me. People who have only heard MP3s have no idea how awful they sound compared to vinyl (or even a good quality CD, of which there are few).

Only my opinion, of course.

I hope printed books will always be around. When your power goes out for two weeks, it helps to be able to sit out in the back yard and read something that you don't have to charge up every once in a while. 

Mike


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## Cammy May (May 31, 2012)

Of course they will

The question is, when?

I'm guessing, in our lifetimes.
But that starts to get to "what is obsolete"?
Are 8 Tracks and casettes obsolete?  LP records?  Broadswords?


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## JezStrider (Jun 19, 2012)

I certainly hope I don't see the end of the print book.  I just love a book in hand too much.  When I pick up my copy of a favorite book, I can see the worn pages and cover where I carried it around for years.  It's like I can see the memories through it's use, it's character.  

In movies, I always see those incredibly rich people with massive libraries in their homes.  To me, that is paradise.

Don't get me wrong, e-books are great in their own right, but I think there's room in the world for both.


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## TiffanyMonroe (Jul 7, 2012)

Not entirely. There's sentiment, plus they're very efficeint. No batteries required.


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## Guest (Jul 7, 2012)

Jan Strnad said:


> Come the Apocalypse (nuclear, viral, asteroid striking Earth, zombies, whatever) we'll all be returning to print books. Admittedly, some of us will be burning them for heat....


lol... Yes, I can see this happening...

Seriously though, I think there will always be a corner of the market for print books, albeit much smaller than it is now.


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## Michael Gust (Jul 7, 2012)

I imagine there's going to be a lot of jostling going on for the near future. There's a pretty ardent crowd of print lovers out there still. Personally, like some others have posted, I've gone from about 90% e-books back to a fifty/fifty split between e-book and print. When I'm at home and have the time, I will still pick up a print copy. For me the experience is just richer. But if I'm impatient or traveling, I'll turn to my e-reader. I want it all.


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## CraigInOregon (Aug 6, 2010)

metal134 said:


> How is it silly?


It is silly to talk about obsolescence in the same breath as such long spans of time as Carl Sagan was wont to refer to in his books on the age of the universe.

Obsolescence is only a relevant topic of discussion when the time-frames are reasonable. As in: within our lifetime, or the lifetime of our children or grandchildren. Something to ground it in an impact that matters.

In other words, if it's not going to happen within the next 100 years, it ain't relevant to talk about because me and everyone I know will likely be dead by the time it happens.

(And I'm only applying that rationale to the discussion of whether something is going to become obsolete, don't take it beyond the stated intentions.)

When one starts talking about "will X ever become obsolete" and you start talking about time-spans longer than 100 years, it really becomes a pointless discussion.

Example:

"Will boats ever become obsolete?" (No. There have been watercraft of one form or another for thousands of years. Duh.)

"Will an glass-bottom bass boat ever become obsolete? (Yes and no. Yes, in that within the next 100 years, someone will probably invent a superior bass boat. No, in that in the next 100 years, there will always be someone who never stops loving "those old glass-bottom bass boats.")

"Will a canoe ever become obsolete?" (No. Same as the reason for boats.)

"Will a hand-carved canoe fashioned from a single, large tree trunk ever become obsolete?" (Yes and no. Yes, because much better methods of making a canoe have already been invented. No, because skilled craftsmen still make them that way, but demand for them is WAY down.)

"Will a PONG! machine ever become obsolete?" (Yes, because the likelihood of there still existing compatible equipment for them gets shakey in the last few decades of the next 100 years. But no, because the game it contains will constantly be reinvented, expanded upon and improved.)

"Wait a second... will boats, glass-bottom bass boats, canoes, hand-carved canoes fashioned from a single, large tree trunk, and PONG! machines ever... AND THE ROCK! MEANS! EEEEEVVVVVVEEEERRR! ...become obsolete?"

Answer: When America and Japan become obsolete, maybe. When the Earth explodes and all known creation folds back into itself to start the Big Bang Cycle over, maybe.

But who cares? None of us will be around to see that happen.

Or maybe... just maybe... the Big Bang is a cyclical thing... nothing EVER becomes obsolete because on a ridiculous Eternity Scale, EVERYTHING just repeats itself... so they'll all be invented again.

That's where the discussion of obsolescence becomes silly. And I can be silly, too, but it adds nothing to the discussion, John-Boy.


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## AN Patel (May 19, 2012)

I have to agree that print books will not go out of style any time soon.  Even though I have published an ebook, personally, I prefer to hold a book and turn the pages.  I do read ebooks too, but there is something about a physical book that is different and wonderful.  In the long run, ebooks may win, but for now, there is room for both in the market.


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## brianjanuary (Oct 18, 2011)

It's a very interesting question that has sparked some fierce debates. My guess is that fiction will become totally e (or extremely dominant, like CD's versus LP records) in the near future, but more coffee-table-style books will remain printed. However, I forsee that as the e-reader technology improves--meaning e-readers that resemble actual books (and that's starting to happen now)--it might just all shift to e.

I enjoy holding a book, but some of my treasured paperbacks are falling apart at the seams--a problem I don't have with a Kindle.

It will fascinating to see how it all shakes out!


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## MatthewLSmith (Jul 12, 2012)

On a personal factor I will still by print along with digital. In one of the earlier episodes of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Jenny Calender asks Giles why he fears computers so much. He replies because they don't smell. While computers don't scare me I do love the smell of books. My Lord of the Rings trilogy already smells fabulous, and I've only had it since like 2001.

On a world wide factor I say that they still will be around. E-rentals in my experience are kind of hit and miss. Most of the books you can rent from the library without waiting. The E-rentals at my library you still have to wait for a lot of the good ones. 

I think it's all relative. If you think about animation Pixar has changed the animated film industry. Yet on t.v. you still see a lot of standard animation, and some people like with books still prefer that way.


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## ljdevet (Mar 25, 2012)

Oliver Sands said:


> We have all read or heard about the demise of print books, vanquished by the proliferation of e-readers and e-books. However, as USATODAY reports, even as the sales of e-books doubled from 10% of the overall market to 20% in 2011, print books still account for about 80% of the market. While there are many advantages to reading e-books, one main disadvantage to me is that I feel that the e-books that I purchase do not belong to me. For example, unlike print books where you can lend to anyone at any time, lending of an e-book is usually restricted by the author or the publisher.
> 
> That begs the question: Will print books ever go obsolete?


I downloaded the Kindle, Kobo, Sony Reader, Diesel and ibooks apps on my ipad, each with several ebooks. To be honest, I still much prefer to buy paperback/hardback books. There's nothing quite like the feeling of physically holding the book and turning the pages. And besides, no book could possibly be a 'page turner' on any ereader


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## CraigInOregon (Aug 6, 2010)

I've been doing 90 percent of all my reading, and ALL my entertainment/novel reading, on Kindle for almost two years now.

People who get sentimental over slowly-aging paper that yellows, stinks, and draws bugs, not to mention takes up WAY too much space, are... quaint. It's a solid opinion, but not a universal truth.

But honestly, once I get "into" a story, I forget what I'm holding in my hand and whether I'm pressing a button or turning a physical page. All that matters is the tale.


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## Math (Oct 13, 2011)

Maybe a couple of Greek philosophers sat around one day:
"Hey - reckon these scrolls will ever go out?" 
"Huh? Read stuff on something other than a _scroll_?? Are you serious??!"

Books only came into being because they were the best solution for an issue - how to read stuff!

Is an iPad or a Kindle the BEST solution (in every way) for this issue? No. Not yet.

Will there be a better solution one day - something that we don't/can't even imagine yet? Probably.

Will it be 'electronic' in some way? Likely.

Will it be recognisable to us as an eReader or an iPad/tablet computer? Your guess is as good as mine!!


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## Tony Richards (Jul 6, 2011)

Cammy May said:


> Of course they will
> 
> The question is, when?
> 
> ...


I'm not the first to point this out but -- contrary to popular opinion -- vinyl records are not obsolete; far from it. And I believe broadswords are about to make a comeback too.


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